Early Mississippi State vs Mississippi Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Week 14

In one of the most hate-fueled rivalries in college football, Mississippi State travels to Oxford to take on Mississippi in the Egg Bowl.

Despite the Rebels coming off an upset loss to Florida, my early Mississippi State vs. Mississippi predictions expect Lane Kiffin’s squad to lean on all of its NFL talent against a Bulldogs team that’s 0-8 against Power 4 programs. Read more in my college football picks for Friday, November 29.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi predictions

Early spread lean
Mississippi -26.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The Mississippi Rebels' shot at the College Football Playoff is probably over, but that won’t stop them from being juiced to play against their arch rival. This is easily one of the best rivalries in sports, and the players tend to hate each other as much as the fanbases.

So I expect Kiffin to have the Rebels revved up and ready to go against one of the worst Mississippi State Bulldogs teams in recent memory. While 26.5 points is a lot, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line move another point in Mississippi’s direction by kickoff.

That’s how bad the Bulldogs have been this season. They’re 87th in SP+ this year and allow 34.8 points per game, which ranks 122nd out of 134 FBS programs.

It’s just hard to imagine a world where the Rebs don’t hang 40-plus on Mississippi State. Mississippi is the No. 2 team in the country by SP+ with the No. 8 offense thanks to future NFL players like QB Jaxson Dart.

Dart has this passing attack ranked No. 1 in the country in EPA per dropback, and he has a plethora of Sunday players in his pass-catching corps. Even if star receiver Tre Harris doesn’t play, Dart still has Cayden Lee, Jordan Watkins, Antwane “Juice” Wells, and Caden Prieskorn.

That crew is going to obliterate a defense that’s 128th in EPA per dropback and allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game in the Power 4 (248.3). And it’s not as if the Bulldogs can key in on stopping the pass, with this defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the Power 4 (213.5).

Mississippi State’s offense just isn’t going to be able to keep up to cover in this one. I have Mississippi taking it 42-13.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 61.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

I’m fairly surprised that this game total is so high. Sure, Mississippi is poised to score against this awful defense, but getting to Over 61.5 points means that Mississippi State is going to have to put up close to 20.

That underrates just how loaded the Rebels’ defense is up front. Mississippi sits sixth in the country in SP+ on defense and is allowing just 13.9 points per game this season, fifth-fewest in the country.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense put up just 22.1 points per game in conference play. That includes only 14 against Tennessee and 13 against Texas, two defenses that rank similarly to Mississippi’s this season.

While the Bulldogs’ offense is better than its defense, it’s still just 68th in SP+ and ranks outside the Top 60 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback. And the offensive line is in for arguably its toughest challenge of the season.

Mississippi’s entire starting defensive line is going to be playing in the NFL. Walter Nolen, JJ Pegues, Jared Ivey, Princely Umanmielen, and Suntarine Perkins all have 29-plus pressures this season and a pass rush win rate of 9.5% or better, per PFF.

That doesn’t bode well for an offense that’s given up 115 pressures this season and is ranked 105th in pass blocking by PFF. 

To make matters worse, Mississippi’s defense is even better against the run (No. 2 in EPA per rush) than the pass (No. 17 in EPA per dropback). The Rebels allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (87.5).

So even with Mississippi’s high-powered offense, I don’t see how this Over hits given the matchup between the Bulldogs’ offense and Rebels’ defense.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi live odds

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