What was the point to all that consternation about the College Football Playoff? Lane Kiffin’s complaining was rendered embarrassingly moot when Mississippi lost to Florida. Worries about Alabama losing in the SEC championship game and subsequently getting knocked out of the Playoff no longer matter thanks to a loss to Oklahoma. The Tide have no SEC title hopes anymore; they can only hope to still be included in the Playoff.
In the throes of the season, we all seem to forget one of the greatest tenets of college football: Let it play out. The debates tend to resolve themselves throughout three months.
We think we know far more than we do. Fans, commentators, and gambling analysts alike all forget the available data is limited and we get enough to make truly sound judgments only as the season is ending.
But now we have more data, as much as ever. In that spirit, there is no reason to hold back anymore. There are no words of hesitation below. After 13 weeks, if we cannot react to what we have seen, when can we?
College football Week 13 things you should overreact to
Do overreact to Ohio State’s domination of Indiana.
Every single SEC advocate who has argued the Indiana Hoosiers should be dismissed because they have not played a difficult schedule should take a look at the loss column. More pertinently this week, they should look at Indiana’s method of domination up until this weekend. The Hoosiers had won nine games by at least two possessions.
To go from that to losing by three scores emphasizes what the Ohio State Buckeyes just did. Indiana entered the weekend with the No. 15 offense in SP+ ratings and the No. 3 offense in expected points added (EPA) per snap, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
And outside of their opening and closing drives — an excellent opening script and a garbage-time display, respectively — the Hoosiers gained six yards on 33 snaps.
Six yards on 33 snaps on nine drives.
No matter who Indiana has beaten of late, it had done so emphatically. Shutting down that offense in such spectacular fashion is a ringing endorsement of what Ohio State’s defense has become. Coordinator Jim Knowles leaning into the blitz showcases the talent level on all three levels of the Buckeyes’ defense. Forcing a competent offense into complete and total failure is a skill unto itself.
Meanwhile, Ohio State had no concerns along its offensive line, not giving up any sacks and just three tackles for loss. The Buckeyes have another week to better gel as they replace veteran center Seth McLaughlin after he tore his Achilles in practice last week. Every game handled without him will better the unit’s ability, and that only elevates Ohio State’s standing further.
Douglas’ advice: The Buckeyes are once again the favorites to win the National Championship. Surviving this initial week without McLaughlin quelled some worries, and that dominant defensive performance should carry over against each and every opponent yet to come. But +275 at BetMGM is a bit short. A three-round moneyline rollover in the Playoff should pay better. Just looking at a current bracket projection, Ohio State would be a 4.5-point favorite against Georgia in the quarterfinals, a field-goal favorite against Oregon in a third meeting in the semifinal, and let’s conservatively say a 2-point favorite against Texas in the title game.
Convert those to moneylines and do the parlay math, and the Playoff moneyline rollover would pay out about +343. Of course, upsets could make that path to a title easier, but the 24.7% boost in payout should be worth that risk.
Douglas’ advice, Part II: Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has a score to settle. Michigan has beaten Ohio State each of the last three years, twice by multiple scores. Every one of those losses put Day’s job in more and more jeopardy. He will gladly run up the score on the Wolverines, particularly given the cover story of the Playoff politics, arguably needing to impress the world to have a chance at the five-seed should the Buckeyes fall in the Big Ten title game. If able to find a spread within three touchdowns, enjoy yourself.
Do overreact to the coming chaos of rivalry games. Three of them got more interesting this week.
The Egg Bowl defies comprehension. The Mississippi State Bulldogs' trip to face the Mississippi Rebels on Friday afternoon should kickstart a weekend of chaos.
The Rebels’ loss to Florida this past weekend likely knocked them out of the Playoff entirely. That will become more clear with Tuesday’s rankings update. And that will create a letdown worry around Lane Kiffin and his roster of relative mercenaries.
Florida ML +310, never in doubt. ?@BetMGM pic.twitter.com/CxsRPZyhba
— Covers (@Covers) November 23, 2024
The transfer portal era has improved this sport, but it may lessen some of these peak rivalries. Fewer Rebels are invested in the Egg Bowl than usual, and now their title-contending season has been rendered just another three-loss campaign.
By no means will the Bulldogs win this game. But the Mississippi letdown will be real, and it creates value in Mississippi State.
Douglas’ advice: Try to find the Bulldogs at +27 or higher. And then trust variance, emotions and chaos to keep this within four scores.
The Commonwealth Cup is a competition for bowl eligibility. The Virginia Tech Hokies and Virginia Cavaliers are both coming off losses, and now only one of them will play a 13th game.
The Hokies continue to be without star quarterback Kyron Drones, battling a myriad of injuries at this point. There is little reason to think he will be in the lineup next week. And since his injury, Virginia Tech is 0-3 outright and 0-3 against the spread.
Lean into this tailspin and trust in Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott to put a bow on this redemptive season.
Douglas’ advice: Drones’ absence is a big deal. It has been underplayed because his status is supposedly questionable. Ignore that. He’s out. Take Virginia at +7. I already have.
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin does not get properly noticed even though it is the most-played rivalry in the country. Paul Bunyan’s Axe is a wanted commodity, particularly among two rosters with — hold on, let’s do a quick and easy CTRL + F — a combined 94 players from the two states. They grew up on this rivalry.
That is the difference in program-building among middling Big Ten teams and Mississippi. The Gophers and Badgers import fewer players, that is simply a reality.
Minnesota is the better team this year, it is without the Axe these days, and it is well-suited to stand up to Wisconsin’s run game.
Douglas’ advice: Taking a short road underdog to end the season may make you uneasy, but the Gophers would be delighted to deprive the Badgers of a bowl game. If the Minnesota moneyline starts with +, embrace it.
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Do not overreact to the Big 12 mess. Do not try to turn those pivotal matchups into handicaps.
It is too much of a mess.
If Arizona State beats Arizona, it is into the Big 12 championship game. That is why the thought of chaos in the Territorial Cup did not intrude above.
If BYU beats Houston and one of Arizona State or Iowa State loses, then the Cougars are into the Big 12 championship game.
If Iowa State beats Kansas State in Farmageddon, then the Cyclones will be in a good position but not necessarily into the Playoff play-in.
And Colorado, well, the Buffaloes will need to beat Oklahoma State, see BYU lose, and Texas Tech win.
It is too much of a mess. Avoid it.
Cracked the complete Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios with total certainty for Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 24, 2024
This highlighted sentence determines the most convoluted scenario. Effectively, don't bother breaking the tie between Texas Tech and Kansas State. Charge forward pic.twitter.com/tagk3tvolK
Do overreact to Pittsburgh’s tailspin, particularly with quarterback Eli Holstein’s latest injury.
Sophomore quarterback Eli Holstein had only just returned from a concussion when he was carted off with a left leg injury in Saturday’s 37-9 loss at Louisville. Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi did not have an immediate update on Holstein’s prognosis after that loss, but Occam’s razor says Holstein’s season is over.
Pittsburgh is already on a four-game losing streak after beginning the year 7-0 outright and 6-1 against the spread. Now 1-3 ATS in the last four, put significant doubt in the Panthers.
They are losing and losing often. Their idyllic season has fallen apart, and now their star quarterback is injured anew.
Douglas’ advice: The market may seem like it is overreacting by a touchdown by making Boston College a 3.5-point favorite, but Holstein should be worth three or four points, and Pittsburgh’s tailspin is worth another field goal. All of a sudden, the Eagles being -3.5 makes some sense. Put a unit on Boston College at -3.5, as unglamorous of a conclusion to the regular season as that may be.
SEC tiebreaker will come down to winning percentage of conference opponents.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 24, 2024
Georgia has a healthy lead on Tennessee and Texas.
So the SEC championship game scenario is:
Georgia vs. Texas/Texas A&M winner.
Not intended for use in MA.
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