There’s an intriguing matchup in the USLBM Coast-to-Coast Challenge as the Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) face the No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, TX today.
My Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks believe an Under is in store for Sunday, December 8.
Texas Tech vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet
Under 141.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Texas A&M Aggies are supposed to have a strong season this year, or at least that’s the expectation when you return seven of your top eight players from a team that won 21 games and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament a year ago.
A&M checks in at 26th overall in KenPom led by a strong defense (14th in adjusted efficiency). It fell to UCF in the opener and lost by 10 to Oregon on a neutral court, but has since picked up notable wins over Creighton, Ohio State, Wake Forest, and Rutgers.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders won 23 games in year one of the Grant McCasland era a year ago and hopes to continue the winning ways with another strong team. The non-conference schedule has been a bit of a cakewalk with the lone loss coming to a 6-3 St. Joseph’s team.
The Red Raiders check in at 20th overall in KenPom, ranking 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Neither team looks to push the pace much as Tech ranks 258th in adjusted tempo, while A&M isn’t far ahead at 234th.
A&M excels offensively by getting to the line and grabbing offensive boards, leading the nation in both free throw attempt rate and offensive rebounding percentage. Tech has no particular issues fouling and is solid on the boards, ranking 48th in defensive rebounding percentage.
They’re expected to see the return of star big man JT Toppin after a one-game absence, and that’s a huge deal in this matchup considering he averages 11 rebounds per game.
The Aggies have plenty of size and physicality and make their hay in the paint. The Red Raiders are well-poised to counteract that, allowing just 49.2% of opponent field goal attempts to occur at the rim (27th nationally).
On the other hand, Tech's balanced offense is capable of winning in many ways, but this will be its most difficult test of the season against a stout Aggies defense.
Through the first three years of the Coast-to-Coast Challenge, teams have averaged just 131.3 points per game across a six-game sample. Dickies Arena seems to bring out the worst in offenses and the best in defenses, so I’m betting on the Under.
Texas Tech vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
Under 141.5
Texas A&M moneyline
Darrion Williams Over 3.5 assists
The Aggies are far more battle-tested, grabbing four notable wins over Power Conference opponents. Their two losses also haven’t aged poorly — UCF is 6-2 with losses to Wisconsin and LSU (in triple overtime), while Oregon is 9-0 and beat San Diego State, Alabama, and USC in its last three.
Tech’s metrics are slightly better on some sites, but it’s splitting hairs. Those metrics were also accumulating against very underwhelming competition, so the numbers are hard to trust. The Red Raiders are still a bit of a mystery but appear to be a team that will be stronger as the season goes on and its roster has more time to develop with one another and gel.
One Tech player prop that stands out is Darrion Williams’ assist total. The star forward does it all for his team, averaging 17.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. He’ll be needed in a facilitating role to get Tech’s offense going against a tough opponent, so I’m betting that he will reach 4+ assists.
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Texas Tech vs Texas A&M odds
Texas Tech vs Texas A&M live odds
Texas Tech vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -1 | Texas A&M +1
- Moneyline: Texas Tech +103 | Texas A&M -120
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas Tech vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Texas A&M has cashed the First Half Under in 21 of its last 36 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Texas A&M
| Location: | Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Texas Tech vs Texas A&M key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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