The Top 2 teams in the Western Conference go head-to-head for the second time this season as the Oklahoma City Thunder head to Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors.
With both Golden State and Oklahoma City being among the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, my Thunder vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 27 expect a lower-scoring game.
Thunder vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Under 226 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When you see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander taking the court, it’s fair to assume points will be scored, but with Steph Curry out for the Warriors, this game is going to come down to defense.
Despite losing Chet Holmgren to a hip injury the last time the Oklahoma City Thunder played the Golden State Warriors in early November, Oklahoma City’s defense has weathered the storm of being down a top NBA Defensive Player of the Year contender. And with Isaiah Hartenstein now healthy, the Thunder’s defense is in great shape to slow down the Warriors.
Mark Daigneault’s team is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the NBA (103.9) and sits first in defensive rating (103.6). It matches up perfectly with the trey-happy Warriors, too.
While Golden State is taking (41.8) and making (15.9) the fourth-most threes per game in the NBA this season, that pace is going to be difficult to keep up without Curry against Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense. The Thunder are allowing the seventh-fewest made threes per game (12.6) and the fifth-lowest 3-point percentage (34.1%).
And it’s not as if Golden State will have an easier time driving and attacking inside against this defense. The Thunder have been monstrous defending inside the arc this season, allowing the fewest twos per game (23.7) and the second-lowest 2-point percentage (48.8%).
However, it’s not just the Thunder’s defense that’s poised to have this Under hit. Golden State’s defense has taken a massive step forward this season after being middle of the pack last year.
The Warriors are allowing the seventh-fewest points per game (109.9) and rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rating (108.4). Slowing down both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams won’t be an easy task, but Golden State should be capable of locking up the perimeter.
Steve Kerr’s squad is allowing the fifth-fewest made threes per game this season (12.5) and the lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA (31.8%). Plus, it doesn’t get much easier the closer shooters get to the rim, with Golden State allowing the eighth-lowest 2-point percentage (52%).
Both these defenses should be able to do enough to slow down the star guards for this Under to be in position to hit.
Thunder vs Warriors same-game parlay
Under 226
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 points
Andrew Wiggins Over 19.5 points
The last time Gilgeous-Alexander played Golden State, he put up just 24 points in a loss. And for as good as he’s been since then, the Warriors are well-suited to stop him from scoring 30-plus points.
The Warriors are allowing the second-fewest points to point guards this season (20.45) and the second-fewest threes (2.23). So SGA is going to have a tough time scoring Over 29.5 points — something he’s only done in 35.2% of his games this season.
On the other side of the court, while I’m backing the Under, I do think Andrew Wiggins is positioned to hit Over 19.5 points. With Curry out, the offensive load will fall on his shoulders, and he’s been a high-volume shooter as of late with 14+ shots in three of his last five, and 4+ attempted threes in all six of those games.
Over those five games, he’s averaging 23.4 points per game and has scored 20+ in four of five.
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Thunder vs Warriors odds
Thunder vs Warriors live odds
Thunder vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -2 | Golden State +2
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -130 | Golden State +110
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened between a 1.5 and 2-point road favorite with most books moving another half-point in Oklahoma City’s direction.
- Both the Thunder and Warriors are among the best teams ATS this season at 10-7.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 227.5 and has steadily climbed to between 229.5 and 230.5.
- While Golden State is one of the best Over teams in the NBA at 10-7, Oklahoma City is one of the worst at 8-9.
Thunder vs Warriors trend
The Warriors have only hit the moneyline in 17 of their last 33 games at home (-24.90 Units / -27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Warriors.
How to watch Thunder vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Thunder vs Warriors latest injuries
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