Northwest Division foes clash in Salt Lake City tonight as the Jazz welcome the visiting Nuggets. Denver has won both head-to-head matchups this season, and the Jazz will look to get a win in the season series and snap a three-game skid in the process.
My Nuggets vs. Jazz predictions expect Walker Kessler to take advantage of increased opportunities in a favorable matchup. Read my NBA picks for Monday, December 30 to see why you should take the Over on Kessler’s rebound prop.
Nuggets vs Jazz prediction
My best bet
Walker Kessler Over 10.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
John Collins is listed as doubtful to play on Monday, which means he’ll likely miss a fourth straight game. Over the last three games with Collins out, Walker Kessler has averaged 14.3 rebounds and gone for at least 11 in all of them. That includes two games with 16 boards. Kessler’s playing time has risen from just under 30 minutes to 32.7 mpg in Collins’ absence.
Kessler is averaging a career-best 10.9 boards per game this season, and he’s hit the Over on this line in 14 of 24 games. The third-year man is grabbing 10.9 rebounds at home compared to just 9.8 on the road, so this prop is a little sweeter with tonight’s game tipping off from Delta Center.
Kessler corralled 14 and 12 rebounds, respectively, in two matchups with Denver this season. He grabbed 11 and 13 in two matchups last season in which he played at least 20 minutes. Since December 1, Kessler has pulled down 11 or more rebounds for the Utah Jazz in eight of 11 contests.
The Denver Nuggets have allowed the eighth-fewest total rebounds per game this season, but this is still a favorable matchup for Utah’s big man. The Nuggets have allowed the sixth-most offensive rebounds to opponents. Kessler leads the Association in offensive boards at four per game, setting him up nicely to take advantage on the offensive glass and make an impact as a rebounder.
Nuggets vs Jazz same-game parlay
Walker Kessler Over 10.5 rebounds
Over 240
Michael Porter Jr. Over 18.5 points
Utah has hit the Over in nine of its last 10, and Denver has done so in five of its last seven. Neither team plays great defense, and I expect tonight’s matchup in Salt Lake City to be a high-scoring affair.
On the season, the Nuggets rank 18th in defensive rating, and the Jazz rank dead last. Over the last 10, Utah ranks 29th, and Denver ranks 21st. In that span, the Jazz have allowed the third-most points at 122.4, and the Nuggets have allowed the eighth-most at 118.5.
Those averages give us 240.9 combined points allowed between the two teams, putting us just over our point total. Over the last five, Denver has been even more generous to opposing offenses, allowing the fifth-most points at 119.8. Tonight’s point total is quite high, but I’m taking the Over here.
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging a career-best 18.6 points per game this season, and his scoring prop is set comically low tonight.
MPJ has averaged 22.5 points across his last four, going for at least 19 points three times and at least 18 points in all four. He’s scored at least 19 in 15 of 30 games on the season, including both prior matchups with the Jazz.
Aaron Gordon will be out for a third straight game and will miss his 14th game of the season. MPJ has averaged 18 points per game with Gordon available and 19.5 with Gordon on the sidelines. Porter Jr. has scored at least 19 in seven of 13 games without Gordon, and he’s poised to do so again tonight in this favorable matchup against the Association’s worst defense.
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Nuggets vs Jazz odds
Nuggets vs Jazz live odds
Nuggets vs Jazz opening odds
- Spread: Denver -7 (-105) | Utah +7 (-115)
- Moneyline: Denver -270 | Utah +220
- Over/Under: Over 240 (-110) | Under 240 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver is 4-3 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread in its last seven overall, bringing the team’s record to 17-13 SU and 12-17-1 ATS.
- Utah has won two of its last five but covered in all of those contests, and the Jazz are 7-23 SU and 15-15 ATS.
- The Nuggets have hit the Over in two straight and five of seven, and Denver is 19-10-1 to the Over on the season.
- The Jazz have gone Over in three straight and nine of 10, and Utah is 17-13 to the Over through 30 games.
Nuggets vs Jazz trend
Denver has won four straight against the Jazz, all by 16 points or more. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz.
How to watch Nuggets vs Jazz
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Monday, 12-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, KJZZ |
Nuggets vs Jazz latest injuries
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