The Heat will be without superstar Jimmy Butler for a fifth straight game, and the team will look to get back in the win column after falling to the Hawks on Saturday. The Rockets’ four-game win streak was snapped with a one-point loss to Minnesota on Friday, and Houston will be hungry for a win in front of the home crowd.
My Heat vs. Rockets predictions expect Tyler Herro to have a productive night without Jimmy Butler. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Herro’s combo prop tonight.
Heat vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Tyler Herro is enjoying a productive season, averaging career highs across the board with 23.9 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists. That’s good for 34.7 PRAs, meaning an average performance against the Houston Rockets will cash the Over on this prop.
Herro has been even better across his last eight with averages of 24.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists. He’s hit the Over in four of those eight and totaled exactly 33 PRAs in one more outing.
Herro has averaged 34.4 PRAs with Jimmy Butler and 37.7 in nine games without him. In those nine games without Butler, Herro has hit the Over five times and posted one more game with 33 PRAs. His usage rate increased from 27.1 to 28.5 in those games.
On the road, Herro has averaged 34.9 PRAs compared to 34.6 at home. He’s hit the Over on this line in 14 of 29 games overall with four games of 32 or 33 PRAs.
The Rockets have been a below-average matchup for opposing guards, but Herro should see enough usage and playing time to get him over the hump even against a tough defense. Key perimeter defender Dillon Brooks has missed three straight, and if he’s sidelined, this prop is even more favorable for Herro.
Heat vs Rockets same-game parlay
Tyler Herro Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists
Rockets moneyline
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 12.5 points
The Rockets haven’t beaten the Miami Heat since November of 2019, but I expect that five-year drought to end tonight.
Houston is one of the top seeds in a competitive Western Conference thanks to strong team defense and all-around contributions on offense. The Rockets have a solid combination of youth and experience, and the rotation is one of the deepest in the Association. Houston sports an 11-4 record at home, and Miami is just 5-9 on the road.
Jabari Smith Jr. has scored at least 13 points in 15 of 31 games this season. That’s just under half of his appearances overall, but he’s been a more productive scorer at home than on the road.
Smith Jr. has averaged 13.7 points at home compared to just 10.6 on the road, and he’s posted at least 13 points in eight of 15 at Toyota Center. He went for at least 13 points in six straight before his recent two-game slump. Over his last two, Smith Jr. has totaled just 18 points on 6-of-19 shooting. He’s in a favorable position to bounce back against a team allowing 22.1 points to PFs across the last seven.
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Heat vs Rockets odds
Heat vs Rockets live odds
Heat vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Miami +8.5 (-110) | Houston -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +290 | Houston -370
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 (-110) | Under 216.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami has won and covered in just two of its last six, bringing the team’s record to 15-14 straight up and 13-16 ATS.
- Houston has won and covered in six of the last eight, and the team is 21-10 straight-up and 19-12 ATS.
- The Heat have hit the Over in three of the last six and in 16 of 29 games this season.
- The Rockets have hit the Over in four of the last five, and the team is 16-15 to the Over this season.
Heat vs Rockets trend
Miami has won eight straight games against Houston dating back to the 2020-21 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Rockets.
How to watch Heat vs Rockets
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNSU, SCHN |
Heat vs Rockets latest injuries
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