NBA Finals Predictions 2024: Celtics Favored as Porzingis Nears Return

Get the latest predictions, props odds, analysis, and more as our experts break down the action during the 2024 NBA Finals.

Ryan Murphy - Managing Editor at Covers.com
Ryan Murphy ? Managing Editor
Jun 14, 2024 ? 12:45 ET ? 4 min read
Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics in NBA action.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 NBA Finals are now underway, and it's a matchup that few would have anticipated when the season began. The Dallas Mavericks overcame long odds and challenging series against the top-seeded Thunder and third-seeded Timberwolves to advance to the league's championship round for the first time since 2011.

They're now facing the Boston Celtics, who have cruised through the postseason against a trio of overmatched and undermanned teams in the Heat, Cavaliers, and Pacers. The Celtics trounced the Mavs by 18 points in Game 1 and held on for a decisive seven-point win at home in Game 2 to strengthen their stranglehold on the series.

Stay tuned here as we bring you updated betting analysis, the latest props markets, and other postseason news as the NBA championship odds heat up with Game 4 in Dallas on Friday night.  

NBA Finals expert predictions

Writer NBA Finals Winner NBA Finals MVP
Rory Rory Breasail Mavericks Mavericks Luka Doncic
Andrew Caley Andrew Caley Mavericks Mavericks Luka Doncic
Joe Osborne Douglas Farmer Mavericks Mavericks Luka Doncic
Jason Logan Jason Logan Celtics Celtics Jayson Tatum
Jon Metler Jon Metler Mavericks Mavericks Luka Doncic
Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy Celtics Celtics Jayson Tatum
Rohit Ponnaiya Rohit Ponnaiya Celtics Celtics Jayson Tatum

Picks made prior to the NBA Finals.

NBA Finals Game 4 hub

NBA Finals most rebounds odds

Outcome Odds
Celtics Jayson Tatum +165
Mavericks Luka Doncic +165
Mavericks Dereck Lively II +230
Celtics Jrue Holiday +3,000
Mavericks PJ Washington +8,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of June 14, 2024.

The Boston Celtics may have two traditional — well, traditional-ish — big men in Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis, but Jayson Tatum has always been their best rebounder. Start with the simple reality of the regular season: Tatum led Boston with 8.1 rebounds per game, nearly a board more per game than Porzingis and almost two compared to Horford.

In each of the last two postseasons — 20 games last year, 14 thus far this year — Tatum has averaged well more than 10 rebounds per game.

At +165, betting Tatum to grab more rebounds than Doncic is the right wager.

Pick: Jayson Tatum (+165)

NBA Finals most 3-pointers made

Outcome Odds
Celtics Derrick White -175
Mavericks Luka Doncic +220
Celtics Jayson Tatum +550

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of June 14, 2024.

Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum may be the bigger names, but it's impossible to ignore the value on Derrick White, who leads both teams with 3.4 made threes on 47.1% shooting from beyond the arc. The 3-and-D specialist has hit four 3-pointers or more five times this postseason and should benefit from plenty of clean looks as Dallas' defenders scramble to cover Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis. 

Pick: Derrick White (-175)


NBA Finals correct score odds

Outcome Odds
Celtics Celtics 4-0 -110
Celtics Celtics 4-1 +175
Celtics Celtics 4-2 +1,100
Celtics Celtics 4-3 +1,200
Mavericks Mavericks 4-3 +1,700

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 14, 2024.

No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit and it's unlikely the Mavs will be the first. However, Dallas showed plenty of fight in Game 3, managing to pull within one point in the fourth quarter before Luka Doncic fouled out. The Mavs are resilient, and with Porzingis' status still up in the air, there's plenty of value to be found in a five-game series. Count out Kyrie & Co. at your own peril.

Pick: Celtics 4-1 (+175)

2024 NBA Finals MVP odds

Player Team Odds
Jaylen Brown Celtics Boston Celtics -280
Jayson Tatum Celtics Boston Celtics +250
Luka Doncic Mavericks Dallas Mavericks +2,200
Jrue Holiday  Celtics Boston Celtics +7,500
Kyrie Irving Mavericks Dallas Mavericks +9,000
Derrick White Celtics Boston Celtics +11,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 14, 2024.

Many fans were surprised when Jaylen Brown earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors, but the All-Star guard has shown that plaudit was no fluke with his exceptional play against the Mavs. Brown is averaging 24.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists while playing aggressive, pin-down defense on Doncic. Tatum has had his moments, but Brown's consistency and two-way play earn him the nod here.

Pick: Jaylen Brown (-280)

Dallas Mavericks X-factor: Luka Doncic

It may seem stupid to say the best player on the Mavs is their X-factor, but Luka Doncic’s postseason performance is something the Celtics haven’t messed with yet.

Boston has had the luck of the Irish in the tournament, with opponents’ best talents going down with injuries. And on top of that, the C’s always have the best player on the floor in Jayson Tatum. Until now.

Doncic torched the T-Wolves’ tough defense for 32 points and near triple double per game in the West finals on two bad legs. Now, with the finals giving him a week off, Luka is locked and loaded to beat up Boston.

Boston Celtics X-factor: Kristaps Porzingis

Boston has its biggest X-factor back with the "Unicorn" in the lineup.

The former Maverick is a two-way troublemaker, using his length to protect the rim and giving Dallas’ defense fits on pick-and-roll schemes. He’s much more active than Al Horford and gives Joe Mazzulla favorable lineup options.

Porzingis is a better outside shooter than Minnesota’s bigs and can stretch the Mavericks' interior, opening up things inside for the Celtics' slashers. The 10-day break between games is just what the Celtics needed to get their X-factor back in the mix.

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2024 NBA Finals schedule

Game Date/Time Venue
Game 1 June 6 @ 8:30 pm ET TD Garden
Game 2 June 9 @ 8:00 pm ET TD Garden
Game 3 June 12 @ 8:30 pm ET American Airlines Center
Game 4 June 14 @ 8:30 pm ET American Airlines Center
Game 5 (if necessary) June 17 @ 8:30 pm ET TD Garden
Game 6 (if necessary) June 20 @ 8:30 pm ET American Airlines Center
Game 7 (if necessary) June 23 @ 8:00 pm ET TD Garden

2025 NBA Finals

Pages related to this topic

Ryan Murphy Managing Editor at Covers
Managing Editor

Ryan Murphy began his love affair with sports journalism at the age of nine when he wrote his first article about his little league baseball team. He has since authored his own weekly column for Fox Sports and AskMen and has created successful campaigns for some of the biggest and most trusted brands in the world including Walt Disney, HBO, the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL.

“Murph,” as he’s known to friends, began his journey in sports betting in 2017, and enjoyed a highly rewarding tenure at Churchill Downs, where he oversaw the creation of the TwinSpires Edge and served as the publication’s first editor-in-chief. His nose for news and ability to find and nurture talent helped turn the site into a major player within the online gambling industry.

Although Ryan loves examining odds movement and breaking down matchups, he’s also a prolific creative writer whose critically acclaimed stories have been published in 21 books and have been featured on more than 170 radio stations and 40 newspapers. His latest book, My Life’s a Joke, is a laugh-out-loud memoir about the epic fails that thickened his skin and paved the way for a successful 15-year career as a touring stand-up comedian.

Ryan’s top piece of advice to sports bettors: “Bet with your head, not your heart. It pains me to be pragmatic, but blind loyalty has no place in sports wagering.”

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