It’s been a rough few weeks of NFL football for the betting public.
While there are exceptions — such as the person who plunked down $1 million on the Kansas City Chiefs to win at Caesars Palace on Sunday — the early trends suggest a fair number of bettors have been slaughtered over the past few weeks.
A bettor at @CaesarsPalace wagered $1,000,000 on the Chiefs ML (-175) ?
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) September 22, 2024
Potential payout: $1,571,428.57 pic.twitter.com/unhNinbvDz
At BetMGM, for example, the most bet teams by handle for Sunday's games were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the New Orleans Saints, and the Tennessee Titans. All three were favorites, and all three lost outright.
"We're pulling for nearly every underdog in the Sunday slate,” said Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, in a statement before the games. “The public is all over the chalk today.”
Furthermore, NFL Week 3 has thus far seen 11 games go Under their total, compared to four that went Over, which is typically the more popular selection for casual players.
At BetMGM, the most bet Overs by ticket count were Lions-Cardinals, Eagles-Saints, and Broncos-Bucs. All three games went Under.
It was a similar story at DraftKings. The Boston-based bookmaker reported Sunday morning that the Bucs, Raiders, Saints, Chiefs, and Browns were the five most wagered-upon teams to cover the spread. All were favorites of at least 2.5 points, yet only the Chiefs pulled through for bettors.
Empire State evidence
These results have stung some players but have been a boon for bookmakers. That’s at least according to the week-by-week data published by regulators in New York, the biggest competitive market for online sports betting in the U.S.
For the week that ended Sept. 15, the New York State Gaming Commission reported $478.2 million in mobile sports wagering handle and $69.2 million in gross gaming revenue. That was good for a hold or win rate of 14.5%. To compare, the hold for online sports betting sites in New York for August was 8.7%.
Analysts at investment banking firm Jefferies wrote to clients on Sunday that the margin for Empire State operators for Week 2 of NFL was "exceptionally strong... the third highest in New York's history."
“This was consistent with expectations, with favorites winning just c40% of games versus c80% in the opening week,” the note added.
Still, it hasn't been all sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows for the books. Week 1 was more of a slog, as in New York, the win rate for operators was 6.8%.
Dog days
Fanatics Sportsbook also reported some tighter splits this past week, saying Friday there were eight games in which the team drawing most of the bets to cover garnered 55% or less of tickets.
“There aren’t too many clear-cut public sides this week,” said Max Meyer, senior editor at Fanatics Sportsbook, in a statement. “Just three teams are receiving over 60% of bets to cover their Week 3 spread. I think all of the unexpected results last week played a part in there being more differing opinions with a lot of these games.”
Even so, Fanatics had its fair share of wins on Sunday, such as the Saints losing outright despite drawing the most bets and third-most handle of any team to cover in Week 3.
It could be that operators’ successes in Week 2 and Week 3 outweigh the failures of Week 1. Investors may be thinking the same, as shares of DraftKings have increased in value by almost 10% over the past month.
Citizens JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender noted last Tuesday that underdogs were 10-5-1 against the spread in Week 2 and that those dogs won 50% of all games outright, the highest rate of upsets in six years.
“Week 1 outcomes were slightly under expectations (for gaming margins), but we believe results in the last week were more than enough to blend gaming margins above expectations through the first two weeks of the season,” Bender added. “The higher gaming margins will lead to higher contribution profit but also allow for higher reinvestment rates in the coming weeks and faster payback periods compared to prior years, in our view.”
