The 149th Kentucky Derby has arrived, and the first leg of the Triple Crown once again presents an incredible wagering opportunity for horse racing bettors everywhere.
You could play it safe and simply bet on the outright winner, but there are plenty of additional options that could yield a much bigger payday.
Check out our best 2023 Kentucky Derby trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks below, and find full field morning-lines for the main event in our Kentucky Derby odds.
Kentucky Derby trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks
Why make a trifecta, superfecta, or exacta pick?
It’s a great feeling to be able to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, but those settling for simple win betting are leaving the chance for a big payday behind.
The average $2 exacta payout in nine of the last 11 editions of the “most exciting two minutes in sports” is a staggering $298.00. That excludes the boxcar payout of $3,009.60 in 2019 that featured longshot winner Country House on top, and the even more incredible payout of $4,101.20 triggered by 80-1 longshot Rich Strike’s victory just last year.
Hitting the Kentucky Derby can set a horseplayer up for multiple months, or even until the next Run for the Roses, depending on the outcome. Here is our wagering advice for each of these three popular Kentucky Derby bets.
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Exacta pick
The exacta requires the bettor to select the Top 2 finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager is usually $1, but at Churchill Downs, the $1 straight exacta is not allowed. Only $1 part-wheels (e.g. 1/2,3) or boxes (where the bettor’s horses can finish first and second in any order, albeit at an increased cost) are permitted.
The first step in figuring out an exacta strategy for the Kentucky Derby is determining which horses can win the race. No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1) looks like the most likely runner to visit the Winner’s Circle on Saturday.
Tapit Trice was last seen winning the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 8. He sat back from a moderate early tempo, made a decisive move to hit the front in the stretch, and showed determination to hold off No. 2 Verifying (15-1) late.
This son of Tapit seems to improve with every start and goes for multiple Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher with outstanding rider Luis Saez in the irons. Tapit Trice should relish the demanding 1 1/4-mile journey at Churchill this Saturday.
Now we’ll spread deep in the hopes of hitting this exacta with the second-choice on the morning line.
As we mentioned above, No. 2 Verifying is fresh off a runner-up effort in the Blue Grass. His fourth-place finish in the Rebel two-back should be disregarded, as the race was run on a sloppy track. Churchill’s dirt should be fast for this race. Verifying ran well in victory three starts ago, so his Blue Grass effort wasn’t a fluke.
No. 6 Kingsbarns (12-1) merits respect after wiring the field in the Grade II Louisiana Derby to run his lifetime record to 3-for-3. No one in this field has ever been 10 furlongs, but Kingsbarns has that aforementioned 9.5-furlong victory to his credit.
No. 8 Mage (15-1) is tied with Kingsbarns for fewest starts in the Kentucky Derby field. Though he has just one career win, Mage exits a lifetime-best effort from a speed figure perspective, a runner-up result behind Forte (who was the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby before scratching on Saturday morning) in the Grade I Florida Derby. The stamina-building AM workouts should aid his cause.
No. 14 Angel of Empire (8-1) should be rolling late under Flavien Prat. He smoked the field in the Grade I Arkansas Derby when last seen to run his record on dirt to 5: 4-1-0.
No. 22 Mandarin Hero (20-1) will be our last throw-in here. He was flying late for second in the Santa Anita Derby in his stateside debut. Japan has been winning many important races on the international stage of late.
$5 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 5 Tapit Trice
- Second place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 6 Kingsbarns, No. 8 Mage, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
$3 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 2 Verifying, No. 6 Kingsbarns, No. 8 Mage, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
- Second place: No. 5 Tapit Trice
Total = $40
More Kentucky Derby Picks
Trifecta pick
The trifecta requires the bettor to pick the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be substantially higher than the exacta, but the ticket cost and the risk factor increase significantly.
One benefit horseplayers have when it comes to the trifecta compared to the exacta or superfecta at Churchill Downs is the minimum wager, which in this case is 50 cents. That enables the bettor to include more combinations while keeping costs at a reasonable level.
By keeping our top pick, Tapit Trice, alone on top of our trifecta plays, we won’t need to go with the 50-cent minimum in order to keep our wager amount reasonable. We’ll reduce costs further by keying in on our top two horses for second in Angel of Empire and Mandarin Hero. Either of those two coming in behind Tapit Trice will trigger a fairly low exacta by comparison, but the trifecta payoff should still be juicy.
Our main trifecta play will involve Angel of Empire or Mandarin Hero coming in second, but we’ll also flip the second and third legs in a saver play in case one of our other horses does get up for place.
$2 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 5 Tapit Trice
- Second place: No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
- Third place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 6 Kingsbarns, No. 8 Mage, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
$1 trifecta pick:
- To win: No. 5 Tapit Trice
- Second place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 6 Kingsbarns, No. 8 Mage, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
- Third place: No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
Total = $24
Superfecta pick
The superfecta requires the bettors to select the Top 4 finishers of a race in exact order. While the minimum at most tracks — and most days at Churchill — is just 10 cents, the Derby Day superfecta minimum at the Louisville oval is $1. That makes constructing an affordable ticket that much more difficult, but it also increases the chances for a huge mutuel.
We’ll once again keep Tapit Trice on top, and leave it to Angel of Empire and Mandarin Hero to get second. If any combination of the remaining horses we identified run third and fourth, we’ll be in for a very healthy payday.
$1 Superfecta pick:
- To win: No. 5 Tapit Trice
- Second place: No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
- Third place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 6 Kingsbarns, No. 8 Mage, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
- Fourth place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 6 Kingsbarns, No. 8 Mage, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
Total = $30
Kentucky Derby betting FAQs
Yes. There are a number of legal and authentic online racing books, which allow you to withdraw funds directly to your bank account.
There was a record $165.5 million bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby. That was a 10 percent increase from 2018 which held the previous record of $149.9 million.
The lowest Win bet you can make is for $2. For the exotics, depending on where you play, many offer a 0.10 Superfecta wager at some betting locations.
You can bet on the upcoming Kentucky Derby as early as the day after the prior year's Derby. As the Kentucky Derby is limited to three-year-olds only, the early favorites are the horses having standout two-year-old campaigns.
You can place your wagers until the gates open. Once you hear, ¡°and they're off" the window is officially closed. Soak up as much information in the post parade and loading the gate as you can. Knowledge is power.
With a Superfecta bet you are selecting the top four finishers in the race in order.
