2023 British Open Prop Picks & Predictions: Fleetwood Eyes Hoylake Contention

The golf universe has its eyes set on Hoylake for the 2023 Open Championship. 

The British Open odds board is chock-full of worthy contenders, with Rory McIlroy looking to follow up his Scottish Open victory with an even bigger prize, Scottie Scheffler eyeing a second major title, and Cameron Smith looking to defend his St. Andrews win from a season ago.

I dive into the golf odds below and provide my three favorite British Open picks for the season's final major at Royal Liverpool.

2023 Open Championship prop picks

• Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (+115)
• Spieth over Fitzpatrick (-105)
• Robert MacIntyre Top 30 (+140)

Picks made on 7/18/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Odds to win the 2023 Open Championship

2023 Open Championship prop picks

Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (+115)

Ask any golf fan about Tommy Fleetwood and they’ll be quick to mention the fact he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour. And while that may be true, it totally ignores who he’s really been, particularly in the biggest events. 

He’s missed just three cuts in 25 major tries dating back to the 2017 U.S. Open, a stretch that includes six Top 5s and — for the purposes of my pick this week — 11 Top 20s. 

And those results have only improved in recent years, having recorded three Top 5s among five Top 20s in the seven majors since the beginning of last season. That includes a T5 at LACC and a T18 at Oak Hill in 2023.

He’s seventh in the field in total strokes gained over the last three months and his sixth-place finish at the Scottish Open last week means he’s particularly well-positioned to thrive at Hoylake.

He missed the cut in what was his first major championship start here at Royal Liverpool in 2014, but a decade’s worth of development and experience will surely place him in the mix this week. 

Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (+115 at DraftKings)

Jordan Spieth over Matt Fitzpatrick (-105)

These two head to Hoylake with something in common... they both missed the cut at the Scottish last week. 

Both have some decent finishes of late (Spieth T5 at Memorial, Fitz T17 at U.S. Open) but with neither in form now, we’ll treat it as a wash. With that said, Spieth’s history of success on links courses should give him the edge he needs in this matchup.

Beyond his victory here in 2017, Spieth has four other Top 10s dating back to 2015. The other starts during that span are a T20 (2019) and a T30 (2016). Fitzpatrick’s best Open finish in seven tries is a T20 back in 2019, albeit he also finished T21 a season ago. 

He may be a massive question mark heading into the week but if you’re asking me which of the two to trust in this type of environment, Spieth is without a doubt the answer. 

Pick: Jordan Spieth over Matt Fitzpatrick (-105 at Caesars)

Robert MacIntyre Top 30 (+140)

Robert MacIntyre will surely be on the receiving end of some betting action after an incredible week at the Scottish Open. 

The bright spot was a putter that gained 5.24 strokes for the event, but he also gained 2+ shots in every other major category in a performance that followed up a T4 in Denmark the week prior. 

Rory McIlroy stole the Scottish Open title out from underneath him with back-to-back birdies down the stretch but Bob’s final-round 64 in the tricky conditions once again proved he has the chops to succeed at these venues. 

He finished T34 here a year ago but that’s the worst of his three Open results, having recorded Top 10s both in 2019 (T6) and 2021 (T8). 

He won’t be flying under the radar like he has in years past but all the signs suggest he’s ready for another solid week at the Open. 

Pick: Robert MacIntyre Top 30 (+140 at DraftKings)

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