It’s a star-studded field with 20 of the best players on the PGA Tour competing for their stake of the $5 million purse at Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the Hero World Challenge odds, but our top golf picks are looking further down the board this week.
Best Hero World Challenge picks
- Thomas to win outright (+1,100 at FanDuel)
- Burns to win outright (+1,400 at bet365)
- Burns over Henley (+100 at DraftKings)
- Theegala over Bhatia (-115 at DraftKings)
- Scheffler Round 1 score Over 68.5 (+115 at DraftKings)
Hero World Challenge outright picks
Pick to win: Justin Thomas
+1,100 at FanDuel
This event is a staple in Justin Thomas’ schedule, and he’s had tremendous success at Albany Golf Course with a career-best T3 in 2023 and three consecutive Top 5s in each of the prior three years.
Thomas also enters in excellent form following a T2 finish at the ZOZO Championship, and he’s gained true strokes on approach in five consecutive events and ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch.
Sleeper pick to win: Sam Burns
+1,400 at bet365
This will be the fourth trip to the Hero World Challenge for Sam Burns, and there’s a strong case his game is in its finest form since he debuted with a T3 at Albany Golf Club in 2022.
He finished the PGA Tour season with four consecutive Top-15 results, including a pair of Top 5s in the playoffs, and he also tidied up at the Presidents Cup with a 3-0-1 record. Add pacing this field in true strokes gained putting and ranking fourth in true strokes gained approach, and Burns is set to take a serious run at winning this week.
Hero World Challenge prop picks
Matchup pick: Sam Burns over Russell Henley
+100 at DraftKings
Russell Henley heads to Albany Golf Club and the Hero Challenge for the first time, so I’m surprised to see Sam Burns carrying plus-money odds to win this head-to-head matchup.
Henley similarly finished the PGA Tour season strong with a T4 at the TOUR Championship, but I give an experience edge to Burns because of his familiarity with the track.
Lastly, the unique layout here features five Par 5s and five Par 3s, and Burns played Par 5s way better while their Par 3 results were close last season.
| Sam Burns | Russell Henley | |
| Par-3 scoring average | 3.03% (75th) | 3.00% (30th) |
| Par-3 birdie-or-better percentage | 16.34% (26th) | 12.85% (120th) |
| Par-5 scoring average | 4.53% (37th) | 4.63% (135th) |
| Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage | 52.03% (38th) | 44.4% (139th) |
Matchup pick: Sahith Theegala over Akshay Bhatia
-115 at DraftKings
Akshay Bhatia checks out as one of the weaker players in this field and ranks last in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach across his past 20 measured rounds.
Sahith Theegala hasn’t been better by leaps and bounds, but he’s played the weekend in six straight events while ranking 10th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch. Additionally, he's also the superior Par-5 player, and I value his longer PGA Tour run and Presidents Cup experience (1-1-1) for this unique small-field event.
Hero World Challenge first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Scottie Scheffler Round 1 score Over 68.5
+115 at DraftKings
With consecutive runner-up finishes preceding Scottie Scheffler’s win here last season, there’s no debating why the World No. 1 is also the betting favorite to defend his title.
Still, Scheffler hasn’t teed it competitively since the Presidents Cup, and he's never fired a 68 or lower in the opening round of this event. Additionally, I’m anticipating the layoff to impact his putting and short game the most, which is the quickest way to turn potential birdies into pars and pars into bogeys.
Hero World Challenge odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +220
- Justin Thomas: +1,000
- Ludvig Aberg: +1,000
- Patrick Cantlay: +1,200
- Sungjae Im: +1,400
- Sam Burns: +1,400
- Russell Henley: +1,400
- Wyndham Clark: +1,800
- Tom Kim: +2,000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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