WNBA 2023

Record: 0-0

Today, I'm using a 5 pt teaser taking the New York Liberty down to -2.

Why the Liberty? Ya got me, I don't know a damn thing about these teams (which also answers the question, "Why the teaser?'') I was all set to have a nice quiet morning yelling at my TV while watching a USFL game, but just noticed that the USFL is not playing their usually scheduled Saturday morning game. Nothing in baseball interests me this morning so I ended up at chick ball by default.

A quick look shows a Conn team off to a good start at 3-0 going on the road to take on a 1-2 NY team. And the road team is getting  7 points. I've booked enough bets to know how Joe Public is going to read this one, "Undefeated? AND getting 7 points??!! Gimme' dat road dog!" I take a quick look around the web to read some write-ups and tally general opinions, and sure enough, seems that most people are liking the dog. Which tells me go the other way.

I don't know a single player on either roster (it's the WNBA, why would I?) but looking at some of the write-ups I see NY has the repentant USA hater playing for them. Never seen her play before. Then again, I've never seen any of these guys play before. Wish I would still be able to say that after today.

Buys:

NY -2/open 

Correction, typo, Liberty is 1-1, not 1-2.

Recap: New York Liberty covered part one of the teaser.

Record: 0-0

Buys:

Part two of the open teaser: Vegas Un 178

Recap: 0-1. Had Un 178, had only 75 pts scored at the half, at a pace for 150 I was looking good, but . . . it lands on 179. Ugh.

Record: 0-1, -120

I wasn't planning on doing any WNBA 'capping, just made the teaser because it was the only thing on TV that Saturday morning and I was in the mood for a little action, but I started charting a play on Ov/Un's, only four days of data, worthless really, but off to a 2-0 start, Ov 1-0, Un 1-0, so what the hell, I'll follow it until I get bored.

One spot qualifies today, Ind/Chi Ov. Opened 159', saw 158' when I did my 'capping, waited to buy it, down to 156' now. Might as well wait and see if it keeps going down.

Buys:

Ind/Chi Ov (wait to buy)

Recap: 1-0, +$100

Record: 1-1, -$20

Ind/Chi sailed Ov 156', landing on 211 including an unnecessary OT after 182 in regulation, making regulation 25 pts Ov the # I bought.

Overall this play is 3-0, with the Ov at 2-0.

No plays since that Ind/Chi game, one play today, Chi/LA Ov.

Chi is 2-0 Ov in this play (6/4 and 6/6) so I guess I'll ride it until it loses. It opened at 164 and I see 158' now. Like last time, I'll wait to buy it in case it continues to move in my favor.

Buys:

Chi/LA Ov (wait to buy)

Recap: 0-1, -$110

Record: 1-2, -$130

No play below, one game qualifies, posting in case anyone is looking for angles on the game and for record keeping purposes.

I'm starting to watch a few games, and it's really not bad (<-lie.) But I'm going to handicap the card and post qualifying games each day until I get bored, using a differential 'cap, where if there is X dif between the number I use and the common posted line I have a play; totals only for now. Overall, the play is 4-1, Ov 2-1, Un 2-0 (which means that with a record of 1-2 I'm doing a lousy job at picking which spots to buy and which to lay off of.) The 4-1 includes a W on Un Atl/NY on Tuesday that I didn't buy, and of course it came in Under with Ionescu out (and yes, I'm disturbed that I'm starting to know the name of some of the players.)

(Speaking of players, side note on Courtney Vandersloot - if you already look like Pepper from American Horror Story shouldn't you at least not wear the same hairdo too, to try to cut down on the resemblance?)

Indy/Chi Ov 159 qualifies today. Chi is 2-1 in this spot. Both teams avg approx 160 per game, right on the # for tonight's contest. I'm not buying it because I lost with Chi Over in my last game when it stayed Un by about 20 pts. With a balance in the red I'll wait for a better spot to jump on. If anyone is thinking of buying the Un, wait to buy until later today as it's dropping.

Good luck with your play today.

Record: 1-2, -$130

No plays last time in. The Chi game did go Ov so this play is now 5-1, 3-1 Ov, 2-0 Un.

No games qualified since that Chi game back on 6/15.

Two spots today and I'm buying both, Atl/Dal Un, Min/LA Ov.

Atl/Dal opened at 170', up to 172' now; no sense buying the Un while it's on the rise; wait.

Same with Min/LA Ov; wait, it opened at 159 and it's at 157 now.

Buying both spots, waiting, monitoring the line to get better #'s as both are moving in my favor.

Buys:

Atl/Dal Un (wait)

Min/LA Ov (wait)

Atl/Dal Un 173 about to go into the bank, but . . .

Min/LA Ov 157, at about the halfway mark of the first quarter, is on a pace for, wait for it - a full game total of 26 pts scored. Yay teams!

I am having fun though, and that's what counts (sort of.)

Recap: 1-1, -$10

Record: 2-3, -$140

Got a W with Atl/Dal Un but Min/LA could not recover from a turtle-slow start (6 pts total in the first 4' minutes) and I got tagged with an L on the Ov there. I was going to buy off my LA Ov (and lock up a profit for the day while reducing my deficit from -$130 to just -$40) but I couldn't get a good # on the Un so I was stuck with it.

I watched both games because it was funnier than anything else on TV: the air ball 3 pointers, the air ball layups (yes, air ball layups), the inordinate amount of shot clock violations (these crack me up the most, it's like no one explained the rules to them), the turnovers, the penalties, the technical fouls (I think the LA game had 5 technicals and 34 fouls in total; that's almost 1 foul per minute!), the players out with listings such as "DNP - Pregnancy" (ya won't see that in an NBA game; then again, these days ya never know?) and "DNP - Menstruating" (yes, I made that last one up.)

Also, unlike baseball - where Jimmy Dugan advised us "There is no crying" - in the WNBA it is apparently perfectly acceptable for players who get hard-fouled to lay on the floor and cry. This is Academy Award level flopping!

All in all, great entertainment value, it amuses me, and I plan on watching more of these. Starting with today and the LV/Phx game.

After last night the record for this play is 6-2, Ov 3-2 Un 3-0 and despite there being only one game on today's card it qualifies as an Ov.

Before taking the Ov here I'd like to know the record for Ov/Un in the rare (I think) weekday early start time games for the ladies, but I'm too lazy to research it, and besides, I want to watch it with action on it, so I'm playing it. Opened at 166, I see 165 now and a 164' so wait to buy it, tip off is still 4 hrs away.

Buys:

LV/Phx Ov (wait)

Recap: 1-0, +$100

Record: 3-3, -$40

I ended up getting 165 on my Over. With 97 points scored by halftime, even a 12 pt fourth quarter by the Aces couldn't hurt me. 

The record on this play is now 7-2, 4-2 Ov, 3-0 Un.

From my last post: "I watched both games because it was funnier than anything else on TV: the air ball 3 pointers, the air ball layups (yes, air ball layups), the inordinate amount of shot clock violations (these crack me up the most, it's like no one explained the rules to them.)"

Regarding the extraordinary high number of shot clock violations - Phoenix had THREE of them in FOUR possessions. That is just ridiculous. What do they pay these head coaches for? Certainly not for coaching the players in-game.

Like I said, I normally find these funny, especially because it's not that a good defense is being played and players get trapped towards the end of the shot clock and can't get a pass off. The ones I've seen are just players passing and dribbling with no clue as to the shot clock.

I could laugh at the Mercury's three violations in four possessions because the game was already on a solid pace for the Ov, but if it's a slower pace on a game that I have the Ov on, and I need every basket, I'm sure I'm not going to find them so hilarious. And much cursing at my TV (I like yelling at my TV) will ensue, with a hefty amount of the C word involved. (Yes, bad habit, I know, but it's not really sexist because I also call NBA players that are screwing me the same thing.)

Anyway . . .

Only two games tonight but one game qualifies, NY/Atl Un. It opened at 165/166. I see 170 across the board right now, I don't know if it'll go much higher but I'll wait a little bit just in case. If I see buy-backs to the Un start to show up from players looking for a middle I'll grab a 170 before they're gone, but with about 8 hours left before tip off it can't hurt to monitor the line to see if it goes a little higher.

Buys:

NY/Atl Un (wait)

Recap: 0-1, -$110

Record: 3-4, -$150

Haven't had a game qualify in the last five days but have two today: LA/Chi Ov 156, Atl/Wash Un 163.

Overall this play is 7-3, Ov 4-2, Un 3-1.

Chi is 2-1 on Overs in this play, LA is 0-2 Ov.

Atl is 2-1 Un in this spot, Wash is 1-0 Un.

Chi/LA is that rare (I think?) early morning weekday start. Last one of these was on June 21 with LV/Phx, when I posted this:

"Before taking the Ov here I'd like to know the record for Ov/Un in the rare (I think) weekday early start time games for the ladies, but I'm too lazy to research it, and besides, I want to watch it with action on it, so I'm playing it. Opened at 166, I see 165 now and a 164'."

That game saw 178 scored, 13 pts > than the # I got. That one game doesn't mean early morning games don't see much defense played but it worked for me last time so I'll stick with it until it doesn't.

Overall league stats (Ov 4-2, Un 3-1) say take both games; individual team stats say stay off the LA game (0-2), but what the hell it's been almost a week since I've had a play, let's have a little fun today and ride both of 'em.

* lines changed while doing this write-up, LA/Chi now 156'

Buys:

LA/Chi Ov 156'

Atl/Wash Un 163

Recap: 0-2, -$220

Record: 3-6, -$370

Famous last words, from yesterday's post: "Let's have a little fun today and ride both of 'em."

Well, I rode them both.

And they bucked me like I was Christopher Reeve.

(Oh, c'mon, don't boo me. It's been long enough. Comedy is Tragedy + Time. In other words, as the old joke goes, it wasn't okay to say it on April 15, 1965, but after a decent amount of time passed it was okay to say, "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?")

I was on a good pace for Ov 156 in the early game with 83 pts at the half. Easy to see why it lost. LA, by quarter: 20, 17, 15, 11, their stench becoming increasingly vile as the game progressed. I should have taken heed of yesterday's stat: "Individual team stats say stay off the LA game (0-2.) 0-3 now.

In the Atl/Wash Un 163 I was dead by halftime with 94 pts already scored.

After yesterday's two L's, the statistical differential play I've been using is now at 7-5 (Ov 4-3, Un 3-2.) It's a loss or two away from being worthless (no games qualify today) so I have to make ready Plan B. Three plays today in Plan B: two Dogs and a total; Min, Phx, and NY/LV Un.

Phx is just 1-8 ATS as a Dog, like tonight ("Danger Will Robinson, danger!")

Playing an Un with Vegas, the highest scoring team in the league, may not appear to be fun, but they're only 8-6 to the Ov, so only minor concern there. But  . . . they're playing the second highest scoring team in the league, the Lady Liberties, who are 8-4 to the Over, so mucho concern there.

I only have a one game data sample on the Dogs (1-0) which is as close as can be to no sample at all, which makes it the same as the Ov/Un - no record/sample at all. Prudence (not to mention common sense) would suggest a waiting period, time spent gathering data to see if there is any value to these Plan B plays. But I'm opting to climb the high board and dive right in. What the hell, why not, I'm using small units anyway. (Am I having fun yet? I'll know better by later tonight.)

Good luck with your plays today.

Buys:

Min +2'

Phx +2'

NY/LV Un 174'

Recap : 2-1, +$90

Record: 5-7, -$280

Missed with NY/LV Un as expected, hit with Phoenix +2' as unexpected. My night's outcome was going to be determined by the only game left outstanding, Min +2'.

It was actually a great game to watch. I said I was looking for some fun and I got it, a tight game with a lot of lead changes that went into OT, Minnesota winning SU on a last second shot. 

I have a few spots to choose from today, but I'm not likely to make a play, I'm posting these for record keeping purposes and in case anyone else is looking for angles on either of the games.

Play #1 has Wash/Atl Un, LA/Chi Ov.

This play is at 7-5, 4-3 Ov, 3-2 Un. No real edge there.

Wash is 1-1 in the spot, Atl 2-1.

LA is 0-3 in this spot, Chi 3-2.

Plan B has LA +2'. After last night's wins this spot is now 3-0 (first charted game was not posted, LA on 6/25.)

What to do, what to do?

No edges in the Wash or LA games. Plan B does have a decent record, though with very little data, and LA is 1-0 in this spot, but . . . I used them two days and lost. Here is the post game comment that I made here:

"LA, by quarter: 20, 17, 15, 11, their stench becoming increasingly vile as the game progressed."

I went against my better judgment and used them that night, my gut feel tells me don't make the same mistake twice and play them in an Ov or as a Dog tonight.

If my balance was on the + side I'd likely make a play tonight but I'm trying to work off a deficit so I think I'll probably wait for a better spot. If I change my mind and end up buying either of the three plays listed I'll stop back in and post it.

Good luck with your play tonight.

No recap, no plays last night.

Record: 5-7, -$280

Two nights ago I had three games that qualified in the different situational plays that I use. I played all three, went 2-1. Last night I had three games that qualified and I didn't play any of them. The plays went 1-2, and I saved money by laying off, a nice reminder that . . .

YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERYDAY.

if I made any bet last night it would have been to Fade LA in the Ov spot since they were 0-3 in it. The game did go Ov, so again, laying off was the right move.

I have two plays today. Play #1 has Min (a 1-0 spot), and Plan B has Min ( a 3-1 spot.) Still not enough data to say these are worth anything but since both plays point me in the same direction I'll buy it.

Good luck with your plays today.

Buys:

Min +2

@VeritasAlways

 Why not Ml?

A ?? wins a win 

Recap: 1-0, +$100

Record: 6-7, -$180

Minnesota wins SU in a game that was a decent watch unless you had Phx, who had 22 turnovers.

TWENTY-TWO!!!

That's > 5 per quarter, and in a 10 minute quarter that means a turnover every 2 minutes. As Jed Clampett would say, "Pitiful. Pit-i-ful."

I'm hoping to get more WNBA games that qualify as plays based on the parameters that I use, since USFL is over now (I did okay there) and baseball bores me (and is kicking my ass this season.) But I don't like when there are too many plays, and that's the problem with today. 

Play #1 has NY/Sea Un (3-3 spot.)

NY is 1-1 in this spot, Sea 0-0.

Plan B (4-1 spot) has LA, Wash, and Chi.

LA is 1-1 in this spot, Wash & Chi 0-0.

Un record is 3-3 so no edge there.

LA is playing terrible so I'm going to eliminate that one.

Good luck with your plays today.

Buys:

Chi +3

Recap: 1-0, +$100

Record: 7-7, -$80

Had three Dogs to choose from, two of them lost, the only one I bought won in a close game/good watch. That's not posted as a boast ("I picked the only spot that won"), it's a gauge, tells me I'm seeing things clearly as of late, laying off LA (who got crushed by 28 pts getting +5) and taking Chi (who won SU getting +3). I was at a low point of, 3-6, -$370, fought back to 7-7, -$80. Question is - will I keep seeing things clearly the rest of this week?

Have a few spots to choose from today.

Play #1 has Atl/LA Un 168 and LA as a Wrong Fav.

Play #1 is 4-3 on Un, slight edge. Wrong Favs are 0-2.

Plan B has Dal/Lv Un, an 0-1 spot.

Betting LV Un is not a wager I like, I used it on 6/29 in this same spot and lost. The # is dropping so I may add an Ov later today.

I don't have a lot of data charted yet on WF's (Wrong Favs) but that play is 0-2 and LA has been flat out lousy lately so I'll Fade that play until it loses.

Buys:

Atl +1'

Recap: 1-0

Record: 8-7, +$20

Back in black.

Just like July 2nd with LA, it was the bet I didn't make that made last night a profitable venture. I locked in Atl +1', waited on buying a Fade on LV Un, watched as the line dropped throughout the day. Opened 176, closed 172, and I soooo wanted to pull the trigger on the Ov, but, never did. Why not? Because I was just a little in the red and felt that Atl was a solid Dog that would get me back to the right side of the ledger.

Results? Atl wins SU by 11, while LV game stayed Un. By ONE pt! And I dodged a bullet just Chiun, Master of Sinanju (nobody got that reference, eh?)

Anyway . . .

Today only one game on the card, didn't think I'd get a play but it does qualify, Play #1, Un. After that spot lost last night it's now 4-4. I doubt I'll buy it, no edge, and I prefer to make buys when I have a few spots to choose from. 

Good luck with your play today.

No recap, no play last night.

I graded the Sea/Conn game a Push based on the line that was the common number (166)  when I handicapped and charted the game in the morning.

Record: 8-7, +$20

A few spots to choose from today:

Play #1 has Atl/Chi Un and Chi as a Wrong Fav.

Unders in this spot are 4-4, no edge; WF 0-3.

Plan B has LV/Dal Un and Chi as a WF.

Unders in the spot are 1-1, no edge; WF are 3-5 (in previous posts I gave the record for the Dogs in this spot, should be charted using the record for the WF.)

With both WF plays pointing in the same direction for a combined 3-8 play, I'm in.

Buys:

Atl +1'

Recap: 1-0, +$100

Record: 9-7, +$120

No buys for me today. Posting for record keeping purposes only and in case anyone's looking for any stats on today's game.

Last night I got a W using Atlanta, who scored the opening bucket of the game and pretty much led almost the entire way, winning SU by 14 as a small Dog.

Isolating a Wrong Fav is working well for me right now. They're 0-4 in Play #1 and 3-6 in Plan B. That makes it a combined 3-10, a nice 76% Fade. Not a lot of data with just 13 games charted, but getting there.

Today, only one game, only one spot, Play #1 has Sea/NY Un.  That spot is 5-4 after winning last night with the Atl/Chi game Un.

No real edges today, no choices to select from, so no play. I started the week at -$180, I'm sitting at +$120 right now, so I'll look to close out the week with a profit by taking today off and hoping for one good spot to play tomorrow.

Money management tip - If you're winning, keep doing what you're doing since it's working. But if you're losing, it helps to work in weekly windows, meaning start on Monday, end on Sunday, with the goal being to always finish the week with a profit. And remember you don't have to bet every day.

Good luck with your play today.

No recap, no play last time in.

Record: 9-7, +$120

I have a nice selection to choose from today:

Play #1 has LA/Phx Ov;  Wrong Favs, Phx and Chi.

Ov in this spot is 5-3; LA is 1-3, Phx 1-0

WF's are 0-4, Phx 0-1, Chi 0-0

Plan B has LV/Min Un, Wrong Favs, Phx and Chi.

Un is 2-1 in this spot, LV is 2-1, Min 0-0

WF's are 3-6, Phx is 1-0, Chi 0-2.

I only started handicapping and charting plays in the WNBA after the NBA season ended, so I'm missing a whole month of data on the original play, and more than that on the secondary play I added because I didn't look for a plan B until June 25th. More data would help me make adjustments on my handicapping and decisions on which spots to buy.

Both plays call for the same two WF's today. This happened once before, on July 7th, Fading Chi, and it won so I'm likely to buy both spots today. I have staggered start times though so I'll buy the LA game first and wait until results are in before deciding to buy the later game or not.  Phx  -1' is the common number right now but some of those have a  -120 attached and there's a couple -2 showing on the board, so if you can't get +2 now wait for a little bit.

As for the totals, I'm going to buy the LA/Phx spot despite LA's losing record in it. It's risky using LA in any play right now, much less in an Ov and as a Dog getting only 2 pts. They're injury riddled and playing lousy, losing four straight and seven out of their last ten. But if they're ever going to get right and start to turn it around, Phoenix (3-14) is the opponent you want to face. The total opened at 162' and is dropping so no sense buying it at 159' right now.

In the other total that qualifies, I have a 2-1 spot on the Un but all three games involved Vegas, which is why I was saying earlier I wish I'd been charting these from the beginning of the season and had more data. I don't want to use a stat that's too dependent on just one team.

If I make any other buys I'll post later.

Good luck with your play today.

Buys:

LA +2

LA/Phx Ov (wait to buy)

Recap: 0-2

Record: 9-9, -$100

I always review losses to see if I can learn anything from them, something I can use when making future decisions. I missed with LA +2' and LA/Phx Ov 159'. Here was my thinking/handicap on the game:

I had a 5-3 record on the Ov in Play #1. I had a 4-0 edge on Dogs in the play.

LA scores an avg of 79 PPG, Phx gives up 86 PPG. LA was 1-3 on Overs in the play, but all I needed was for them to score their avg (79) in a game vs the worst team in the league (who gives up 86 PPG) and I would get a split at worst case. I liked the odds, I bought in.

So what happened? Already playing with just a three man bench due to injuries, LA lost starter Dearica Hamby just five minutes into the first quarter.

The game landed on 150. This was 9' pts short of what I needed. Hamby's avg score per game? 9'.

But it's not that simple, the loss can't be blamed solely on injuries. LA is just l-o-u-s-y.

Two sequences provide examples of why they have lost eight of their last ten games:

First, they miss a lay up; they get the rebound under the basket and  . . . they miss again; they get the rebound under the basket and  . . . they miss again. Three misses from point blank range.

Second, end of the third quarter, they have the ball, full shot clock. They dribble at the top of the key, then pass the ball. Next player takes a few dribbles, passes the ball. Third player takes a few dribbles, and . . . shot clock violation. No defense being played on them, not trapped in a corner, they just never took a shot. I'll say it again - it's happens so many times with them it's almost as if they don't even know the rule exists. And that's on the players AND coach Miller.

LA had TWO quarters of just 14 pts. It was one of the ugliest games I've watched this year and had me so pissed I never got in on the second 4-0 Dog, Atl, who won SU. Had I played Atl and the other spot I stayed off of, LV Over, I would have had a 2-2 day instead of 0-2.

All in all, a bad day of decision making on my part.

Anyway . . .

One spot today, Play #2 (Plan B sounds stupid, but I need some way to reference the two different situational spots I 'cap so I'll just use 1&2) has Sea/Wash Ov. Not a lot of data at just 1-0, but both plays I'm using have good #'s, I've just done a lousy job at choosing which to buy, so I think for this week I'll just play all spots that qualify. Game was at 157' when I started this post, now 158 across the board (that ought to teach me not to be so long-winded!)

Good luck with your play today.

Buys:

Sea/Wash Ov 158.

Correction: LV was an Un, not an Ov, and it lost. That spot is 0-1 not 1-0.

Recap: 1-0

Record: 10-9; even $ (0)

Sometimes ya gotta have a little luck on your side. Such as when you bet a wrong stat!

Back to even money, sitting at square one.

One game qualifies today, Sea/Atl Un.

This spot is 6-4. Don't really like it but as I said yesterday, I'm gonna buy all spots that qualify this week. So . . .

Good luck with your play today.

Buys:

Sea/Atl Un 170'