Froggy's Ultimate Martingale 2024-25 Season

The Basis of the System:

This is a 4-legged Martingale model built around NBA quarters. The idea is simple: you aim to win 1 unit per match-up. If all 4 legs fail, the maximum loss is approximately 20 units, so set your unit size carefully. To determine your unit size, divide your maximum allowable loss (20 units) by your bankroll or your sportsbook¡¯s maximum wager limit.

Here¡¯s how to calculate your wagers for each quarter:

1. Start with a pre-match wager on the first quarter.

2. After each quarter, adjust your bet using this formula:
   Wager = Total Wagers Placed So Far + 1 Unit

   This ensures that each wager incrementally increases to cover previous losses and secure a 1-unit win.

For example, with odds of -110 or 1.90:

• 1st Quarter: 1 unit wager = 1.1 units risked
• 2nd Quarter: 2.1 units wagered = 2.31 units risked
• 3rd Quarter: 4.41 units wagered = 4.851 units risked
• 4th Quarter: 8.161 units wagered = 8.9771 units risked

In a loss scenario, the total loss is about 17.2381 units at -110 odds. For live wagers (typically at -120 odds), this increases to approximately 20 units.

The system leverages several factors to identify favorable matchups:

• Team Performance: Weighted averages of quarters won and the percentage of games where at least one quarter was won (based on the last 7 games).
• Fatigue: Considers how many games a team has played in the last 4 days and whether they¡¯re playing back-to-back games.
• Power Rankings: Filters out unfavorable setups.

The best time to place live wagers is just before the quarter ends. Odds tend to improve, lowering your risk. If you¡¯re confident your current wager is dead, place the next quarter¡¯s wager prematurely to capitalize on better odds.

• Use the 'To Win' option when placing bets, not the 'To Risk' option.
• Plan your bankroll carefully and understand the potential losses before attempting this system.
• This is not a "set it and forget it" method¡ªyou¡¯ll need to monitor games and be ready to adjust your bets in real-time.

This system is designed for those who can handle risk responsibly and are comfortable with progressive betting. If that sounds like you, this model could be a profitable and engaging way to wager on NBA quarters. Understand it fully, plan your wagers, and stick to your limits!

I have recorded and back-tested the following seasons:

2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024

The record for the system sits at: 355 wins - 2 losses (-20 unit mines), yielding 315 units profit.

For 2024-2025: We missed 8 games while I was preparing the data. However, we probably should still have around 40-60 units of profit to make this season. So, buckle up!

VERY IMPORTANT change to the process from 2 years ago. If there are 2 or more top scoring players sidelined due to injury or sickness, then we nullify the bet.

Today, we have our first pick.

Cleveland Cavaliers - the system expect 1Q pre-game odds to be +2 or better.

If you want to take a look at a previous season where we took this approach, look here: The first time the system was introduced

Interesting, good luck Froggy.

Since the 2019-2020 season and up to the present, I have tracked exactly 6,479 matchups. Of those, 1,023 matchups resulted in clean sweeps¡ªgames where one team dominated the other not just in points but also in the quarterly spread. If you had implemented a 4-legged Martingale on the losing team in such matchups, it would have led to a 20-unit loss.

This accounts for 15.79% of all matchups, which is alarmingly high. This statistic is a stark reminder: do not attempt to make picks on your own without a back-tested, data-driven methodology. While you might get lucky in the short term, understand that roughly 1 in 7 games poses a significant risk of a 20-unit drawdown. I strongly discourage trying this system without the appropriate safeguards and analytics in place.

I¡¯ve added several new filters to the logic to enhance protection and reduce risks, including:

• Avoiding strong opponents: For example, when there¡¯s a high disparity between the #1 and #2 ranked teams, the risk is too high to bet on a lower-ranked team.
• Ignoring weak teams: Low-ranked teams (up to a specific rank threshold) often perform terribly and aren¡¯t worth selecting.
• Factoring in previous and next-day opponents

These updates are designed to safeguard the system further and minimize exposure to high-risk scenarios.

I was mistaken, there were 9 matchups that met criteria this season before today:

11/7/2024 - Portland Trail Blazers - 2Q win
11/13/2024 - Chicago Bulls - 1Q win
11/13/2024 - Brooklyn Nets - 1Q win
11/15/2024 - Brooklyn Nets - 4Q win
11/15/2024 - Memphis Grizzlies - 1Q win
11/16/2024 - Utah Jazz - 2Q win
11/17/2024 - Miami Heat - 2Q win
11/18/2024 - Chicago Bulls - 1Q win
11/18/2024 - Houston Rockets - 1Q win

11/19/2024 - Cleveland Cavaliers - ?

In terms of which quarter most winning picks are completed:

1st quarter - 61.15%
2nd quarter - 19.16%
3rd quarter - 12.07%
4th quarter - 7.61%

So, be prepared to for 4Q nail-biters. It's part of the system. Without being prepared to place that 4Q wager, you will not be profitable (I've done the math).

For today's wager, I booked:

Cleveland Cavaliers 1Q +1.5 (-105)

@Froggy80

I¡¯ve been reading all your past threads on the Quarter system! Man was I fired up to see you start this up again. 

Hopefully, I'm disciplined enough to stay off other games this time around. 

BOL SIR 

Onto the 2Q. BOL.

What's the 2Q ATS, just for reference. I missed 1Q and 2Q fortunately so will hop on if need be. Thanks

Onto 3Q. BOL.

@emoltzan

The book I chose to bet with doesn't have quarterly bets, so I had to opt for 1st Half after the 1Q. The odds showed equated to a -1. The 3Q should be -1 or better, based on system equation.

.

@Froggy80

 Let¡¯s ride it out bro! Let¡¯s close it out in 3Q!!

@emoltzan

2Q odds were +0.5

So what's 3Q play?

@emoltzan

Cleveland Cavaliers 3Q -1 (-120)

Thanks for playing. Congrats to all who tailed. +1 unit for tonight.



Record: 1 - 0

Nice hit

Wasn¡¯t looking good there at half for you.

@nolemonasses

Strong teams will inevitably find pockets of momentum which show up in at least one of the four quarters.

@Froggy80

 Easy MONEY! In the system we trust. 

@Froggy80

Right, more likely to go 1-3 than 0-4

And they were undefeated

I love this writeup! Missed tonight, but I will be following for the season!