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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 26, 2016 - 2:57 AM ET #26

2016 Record: 31-14

We confront Beelzebub...

The Pick:

Purdue +20.5 over Indiana

1. The Biggest line ever

The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something.

And I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:

+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.

This is the single biggest line every laid to Purdue. That is incredible.

That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.

But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?

Since 1985, Indiana has only given this spread to an FBS teams THREE TIMES:

-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);

-20.5 to Northwestern in 1991 (they covered 44-6);

-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).

Three times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines).

That is UNREAL.

One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.

2. Purdue's offense

There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC Shoop. He is gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".

This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.

No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's

0

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 26, 2016 - 3:08 AM ET #27

2016 Record: 31-14

We confront Beelzebub...

The Pick:

Purdue +20.5 over Indiana

1. The Biggest line ever

The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something.

And I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:

+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.

This is the single biggest line every laid to Purdue. That is incredible.

That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.

But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?

Since 1985, Indiana has only given this spread to an FBS teams THREE TIMES:

-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);

-20.5 to Northwestern in 1991 (they covered 44-6);

-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).

Three times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines).

That is UNREAL.

One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.

2. Purdue's offense

There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC Shoop. He is gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".

This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.

No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's.

DeAngelo Yancy is averaging 20.3 YPC #1 in the Big Ten.

Bilal Marshall (36 catches), Cole Herdman (34 catches), Dominique Young (29), Cameron Posey (33).

There are WEAPONS HERE. Indiana ranks 57th quite respectable. Purdue amazingly ranks 53rd.

Purdue can score on offense to cover. That's all we care about.

3. Running the ball

Purdue is worst defending against the run: 121st in the nation.

Indiana has come out and basically said they will have a rush first attack today. That means Purdue knows what's coming. They showed us they could stop even Penn State for a half.

But, runs take up a lot of clock. The more clock that ticks off, the closer to the end of the game. And with 20.5, we want the clock to melt away. If Purdue can give us one inspired effort against the run we are good here.

4. RUTGERS

Why Rutgers? I told you earlier in the year I scouted New Mexico for an entire year vs. CSU because they lost to Rutgers. That worked out nicely.

Well guess what. Rutgers almost beat Indiana. Rutgers had one of it's best offensive games of the year against Indiana only falling by 6 as 14 point dogs.

When the worst Rutgers team I have ever seen in my life beats you or competes with you, I take notice.

For the record, Rutgers came a hair away from beating Minnesota 34-32, and Purdue covered (-17) and trailed Minny by only 6 with 4 minutes. A turnover made the final 31-44.

If Rutgers can come an onside kick recovery away from potentially beating you, I'll take 20.5.

5.

0

2016 Record: 31-14

We confront Beelzebub...

The Pick:

Purdue +20.5 over Indiana

1. The Biggest line ever

The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something.

And I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:

+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.

This is the single biggest line every laid to Purdue. That is incredible.

That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.

But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?

Since 1985, Indiana has only given this spread to an FBS teams THREE TIMES:

-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);

-20.5 to Northwestern in 1991 (they covered 44-6);

-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).

Three times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines).

That is UNREAL.

One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.

2. Purdue's offense

There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC Shoop. He is gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".

This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.

No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's.

DeAngelo Yancy is averaging 20.3 YPC #1 in the Big Ten.

Bilal Marshall (36 catches), Cole Herdman (34 catches), Dominique Young (29), Cameron Posey (33).

There are WEAPONS HERE. Indiana ranks 57th quite respectable. Purdue amazingly ranks 53rd.

Purdue can score on offense to cover. That's all we care about.

3. Running the ball

Purdue is worst defending against the run: 121st in the nation.

Indiana has come out and basically said they will have a rush first attack today. That means Purdue knows what's coming. They showed us they could stop even Penn State for a half.

But, runs take up a lot of clock. The more clock that ticks off, the closer to the end of the game. And with 20.5, we want the clock to melt away. If Purdue can give us one inspired effort against the run we are good here.

4. RUTGERS

Why Rutgers? I told you earlier in the year I scouted New Mexico for an entire year vs. CSU because they lost to Rutgers. That worked out nicely.

Well guess what. Rutgers almost beat Indiana. Rutgers had one of it's best offensive games of the year against Indiana only falling by 6 as 14 point dogs.

When the worst Rutgers team I have ever seen in my life beats you or competes with you, I take notice.

For the record, Rutgers came a hair away from beating Minnesota 34-32, and Purdue covered (-17) and trailed Minny by only 6 with 4 minutes. A turnover made the final 31-44.

If Rutgers can come an onside kick recovery away from potentially beating you, I'll take 20.5.

5.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 26, 2016 - 3:14 AM ET #28

2016 Record: 31-14

We confront Beelzebub...

The Pick:

Purdue +20.5 over Indiana

1. The Biggest line ever

The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something.

And I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:

+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.

This is the single biggest line every laid to Purdue. That is incredible.

That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.

But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?

Since 1985, Indiana has only given this spread to an FBS teams THREE TIMES:

-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);

-20.5 to Northwestern in 1991 (they covered 44-6);

-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).

Three times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines).

That is UNREAL.

One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.

2. Purdue's offense

There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC Shoop. He is gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".

This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.

No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's.

DeAngelo Yancy is averaging 20.3 YPC #1 in the Big Ten.

Bilal Marshall (36 catches), Cole Herdman (34 catches), Dominique Young (29), Cameron Posey (33).

There are WEAPONS HERE. Indiana ranks 57th quite respectable. Purdue amazingly ranks 53rd.

Purdue can score on offense to cover. That's all we care about.

3. Running the ball

Purdue is worst defending against the run: 121st in the nation.

Indiana has come out and basically said they will have a rush first attack today. That means Purdue knows what's coming. They showed us they could stop even Penn State for a half.

But, runs take up a lot of clock. The more clock that ticks off, the closer to the end of the game. And with 20.5, we want the clock to melt away. If Purdue can give us one inspired effort against the run we are good here.

4. RUTGERS

Why Rutgers? I told you earlier in the year I scouted New Mexico for an entire year vs. CSU because they lost to Rutgers. That worked out nicely.

Well guess what. Rutgers almost beat Indiana. Rutgers had one of it's best offensive games of the year against Indiana only falling by 6 as 14 point dogs.

When the worst Rutgers team I have ever seen in my life beats you or competes with you, I take notice.

For the record, Rutgers came a hair away from beating Minnesota 34-32, and Purdue covered (-17) and trailed Minny by only 6 with 4 minutes. A turnover made the final 31-44.

If Rutgers can come an onside kick recovery away from potentially beating you, I'll take 20.5.

5. Turnovers

This is why Purdue gets destroyed. They have the second worst turnover margin in the FBS at -18.

But take note, Indiana at #107 is way down there at -6.

Avoid costly turnovers and we stay in this one.

6. Indiana play DOWN to it's competition

Vs. FIU 34-13

Vs. Ball State 30-20

Vs. Wake Forest 28-33 (loss)

vs. Michigan State 24-21

vs. Maryland 42-36

vs. Northwestern 14-24 (loss)

While they've won most, they didn't cover 20.5 against a single one of those teams except FIU (and only by .5).
It takes the big dogs to bring out the best in this team.

Yes, this team is bowl eligible if they win but we get TWENTY AND A HALF POINTS.

For comparison, Purdue was only getting 7.5 at home last year (translates to a 13.5 point away line) against Indiana and that was a TWO WIN TEAM.

This is a huge number. Walk with me. Walk and face the devil. Stare him in the eye and take his muth*****ing roll.

Take it...with Purdue!

0

2016 Record: 31-14

We confront Beelzebub...

The Pick:

Purdue +20.5 over Indiana

1. The Biggest line ever

The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something.

And I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:

+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.

This is the single biggest line every laid to Purdue. That is incredible.

That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.

But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?

Since 1985, Indiana has only given this spread to an FBS teams THREE TIMES:

-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);

-20.5 to Northwestern in 1991 (they covered 44-6);

-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).

Three times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines).

That is UNREAL.

One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.

2. Purdue's offense

There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC Shoop. He is gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".

This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.

No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's.

DeAngelo Yancy is averaging 20.3 YPC #1 in the Big Ten.

Bilal Marshall (36 catches), Cole Herdman (34 catches), Dominique Young (29), Cameron Posey (33).

There are WEAPONS HERE. Indiana ranks 57th quite respectable. Purdue amazingly ranks 53rd.

Purdue can score on offense to cover. That's all we care about.

3. Running the ball

Purdue is worst defending against the run: 121st in the nation.

Indiana has come out and basically said they will have a rush first attack today. That means Purdue knows what's coming. They showed us they could stop even Penn State for a half.

But, runs take up a lot of clock. The more clock that ticks off, the closer to the end of the game. And with 20.5, we want the clock to melt away. If Purdue can give us one inspired effort against the run we are good here.

4. RUTGERS

Why Rutgers? I told you earlier in the year I scouted New Mexico for an entire year vs. CSU because they lost to Rutgers. That worked out nicely.

Well guess what. Rutgers almost beat Indiana. Rutgers had one of it's best offensive games of the year against Indiana only falling by 6 as 14 point dogs.

When the worst Rutgers team I have ever seen in my life beats you or competes with you, I take notice.

For the record, Rutgers came a hair away from beating Minnesota 34-32, and Purdue covered (-17) and trailed Minny by only 6 with 4 minutes. A turnover made the final 31-44.

If Rutgers can come an onside kick recovery away from potentially beating you, I'll take 20.5.

5. Turnovers

This is why Purdue gets destroyed. They have the second worst turnover margin in the FBS at -18.

But take note, Indiana at #107 is way down there at -6.

Avoid costly turnovers and we stay in this one.

6. Indiana play DOWN to it's competition

Vs. FIU 34-13

Vs. Ball State 30-20

Vs. Wake Forest 28-33 (loss)

vs. Michigan State 24-21

vs. Maryland 42-36

vs. Northwestern 14-24 (loss)

While they've won most, they didn't cover 20.5 against a single one of those teams except FIU (and only by .5).
It takes the big dogs to bring out the best in this team.

Yes, this team is bowl eligible if they win but we get TWENTY AND A HALF POINTS.

For comparison, Purdue was only getting 7.5 at home last year (translates to a 13.5 point away line) against Indiana and that was a TWO WIN TEAM.

This is a huge number. Walk with me. Walk and face the devil. Stare him in the eye and take his muth*****ing roll.

Take it...with Purdue!

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 27, 2016 - 1:13 AM ET #29

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 (-115) over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams, if not the elite teams (the Giants aren't), are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is nothing to improve.

We know this to be true: Example. We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over SDS.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

I learned.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win and when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Browns, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stya within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium.

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears, Bengals, Eagles, Rams, Ravens were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium),

0

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 (-115) over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams, if not the elite teams (the Giants aren't), are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is nothing to improve.

We know this to be true: Example. We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over SDS.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

I learned.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win and when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Browns, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stya within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium.

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears, Bengals, Eagles, Rams, Ravens were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium),

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 27, 2016 - 1:21 AM ET #30

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 (-115) over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams, if not the elite teams (the Giants aren't), are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is nothing to improve.

We know this to be true: Example. We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over SDS.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

I learned.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win and when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Browns, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stya within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium.

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears, Bengals, Eagles, Rams, Ravens were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium), getting points and put up enough of a showing for me against the Steelers to trust them here.

2. Giants have no run game

This is very important and very straightforward. If you have a run game, it opens up the pass. And if you are playing a team that can't defend the run, and you can't run, that is a boon to the opposing team.

Here are the run totals for the past 6 games against the Browns:

137 Titans

271 Cincy

146 Steelers

119 Baltimore

169 Dallas

171 Jets

Almost all these teams dominated time of possession as expected. And even at that, the Browns almost beat the Titans, and Jets, and got moosed on a cover against the Steelers.

The Giants have Vereen and Jennings in the backfield. While they've picked it up of late, if the Browns can't handle the Giants run game at 0-11 at home, then send them to 0-16.

At a minimum, they have Joe Haden to cover ODB, the most dangerous players in the NFL as the Ravens can attest. The Browns don't do much right but if they at least can face one team with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, they

0

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 (-115) over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams, if not the elite teams (the Giants aren't), are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is nothing to improve.

We know this to be true: Example. We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over SDS.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

I learned.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win and when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Browns, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stya within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium.

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears, Bengals, Eagles, Rams, Ravens were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium), getting points and put up enough of a showing for me against the Steelers to trust them here.

2. Giants have no run game

This is very important and very straightforward. If you have a run game, it opens up the pass. And if you are playing a team that can't defend the run, and you can't run, that is a boon to the opposing team.

Here are the run totals for the past 6 games against the Browns:

137 Titans

271 Cincy

146 Steelers

119 Baltimore

169 Dallas

171 Jets

Almost all these teams dominated time of possession as expected. And even at that, the Browns almost beat the Titans, and Jets, and got moosed on a cover against the Steelers.

The Giants have Vereen and Jennings in the backfield. While they've picked it up of late, if the Browns can't handle the Giants run game at 0-11 at home, then send them to 0-16.

At a minimum, they have Joe Haden to cover ODB, the most dangerous players in the NFL as the Ravens can attest. The Browns don't do much right but if they at least can face one team with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, they

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 27, 2016 - 1:43 AM ET #31

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 (-115) over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams, if not the elite teams (the Giants aren't), are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is nothing to improve.

We know this to be true: Example. We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over SDS.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

I learned.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win and when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Browns, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stya within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium.

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears (by 6), Bengals (by 1), Eagles (by 5), Rams (by 7), Ravens (by 4), Saints (by 3), were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad. SEVEN POINTS is big here given this.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium), getting points and put up enough of a showing for me against the Steelers to trust them here.

2. Giants have no run game

This is very important and very straightforward. If you have a run game, it opens up the pass. And if you are playing a team that can't defend the run, and you can't run, that is a boon to the opposing team.

Here are the run totals for the past 6 games against the Browns:

137 Titans

271 Cincy

146 Steelers

119 Baltimore

169 Dallas

171 Jets

Almost all these teams dominated time of possession as expected. And even at that, the Browns almost beat the Titans, and Jets, and got moosed on a cover against the Steelers.

The Giants have Vereen and Jennings in the backfield. While they've picked it up of late, if the Browns can't handle the Giants run game at 0-11 at home, then send them to 0-16.

At a minimum, they have Joe Haden to cover ODB, the most dangerous players in the NFL as the Ravens can attest. The Browns don't do much right but if they at least can face one team with 31st rushing attacks in the NFL, they deserve an 0-16 start.

Deal with the passing game you know will be the primary attack and play a team that plays down to it's competition, close.

3. Josh McCown

I know you don't like him. I like him. I like him because he is the most experienced QB they have right now.

When you are desperate for a win, you have to lean on experience.

THIS is the player that did the following:

Lead the Browns to a 20-0 lead vs. the Ravens in Week 2 (Browns covered)

Lead the Browns on a big comeback vs. the Jets in a 31-28 loss (didn't cover the +1 line)

Had the Browns covering 17-9 vs. the Steelers until he was moosed.

He's 1-3 ATS in starts but those starts included mooses, very low lines, and were really the best Browns performances of the season.

We want him vs. the Giants.

He HAS targets. Pryor and Barnridge at TE. Pryor at 6'4'' 225 will tower over Jenoris Jenkins Barnridge will give the Giants trouble given they had some trouble against Tyler Effert (96 yards) and Zach Miller (61 yards).

So the Browns should move the ball. Should be able to keep this close with the experience under center and the lack of Giants run game as long as they avoid giving up the explosive play.

It should be noted in three trips to the red zone last week, the Steelers came away with only 3 FG's. That says a lot about a defense trying to do it's part to end this streak.

4. Giants O-Line

Not only do the Giants have the second worst rush attack in the league, they'll have trouble protecting Manning who will have to throw. And when they try to run, they'll have problems.

OUT: Justin Pugh (knee), Brett Jones (calf), Marshall Newhouse (knee). And Adam Gettis (LG starter) is listed as questionable with a calf injury.

You don't want to be this thin at O-Line going on the road against a team that's bad but desperate (and laying points for us).

5. This is Giants first road game in a full month.

Small but relevant point. It'll be a shock to the system.

0

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 (-115) over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams, if not the elite teams (the Giants aren't), are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is nothing to improve.

We know this to be true: Example. We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over SDS.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

I learned.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win and when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Browns, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stya within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium.

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears (by 6), Bengals (by 1), Eagles (by 5), Rams (by 7), Ravens (by 4), Saints (by 3), were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad. SEVEN POINTS is big here given this.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium), getting points and put up enough of a showing for me against the Steelers to trust them here.

2. Giants have no run game

This is very important and very straightforward. If you have a run game, it opens up the pass. And if you are playing a team that can't defend the run, and you can't run, that is a boon to the opposing team.

Here are the run totals for the past 6 games against the Browns:

137 Titans

271 Cincy

146 Steelers

119 Baltimore

169 Dallas

171 Jets

Almost all these teams dominated time of possession as expected. And even at that, the Browns almost beat the Titans, and Jets, and got moosed on a cover against the Steelers.

The Giants have Vereen and Jennings in the backfield. While they've picked it up of late, if the Browns can't handle the Giants run game at 0-11 at home, then send them to 0-16.

At a minimum, they have Joe Haden to cover ODB, the most dangerous players in the NFL as the Ravens can attest. The Browns don't do much right but if they at least can face one team with 31st rushing attacks in the NFL, they deserve an 0-16 start.

Deal with the passing game you know will be the primary attack and play a team that plays down to it's competition, close.

3. Josh McCown

I know you don't like him. I like him. I like him because he is the most experienced QB they have right now.

When you are desperate for a win, you have to lean on experience.

THIS is the player that did the following:

Lead the Browns to a 20-0 lead vs. the Ravens in Week 2 (Browns covered)

Lead the Browns on a big comeback vs. the Jets in a 31-28 loss (didn't cover the +1 line)

Had the Browns covering 17-9 vs. the Steelers until he was moosed.

He's 1-3 ATS in starts but those starts included mooses, very low lines, and were really the best Browns performances of the season.

We want him vs. the Giants.

He HAS targets. Pryor and Barnridge at TE. Pryor at 6'4'' 225 will tower over Jenoris Jenkins Barnridge will give the Giants trouble given they had some trouble against Tyler Effert (96 yards) and Zach Miller (61 yards).

So the Browns should move the ball. Should be able to keep this close with the experience under center and the lack of Giants run game as long as they avoid giving up the explosive play.

It should be noted in three trips to the red zone last week, the Steelers came away with only 3 FG's. That says a lot about a defense trying to do it's part to end this streak.

4. Giants O-Line

Not only do the Giants have the second worst rush attack in the league, they'll have trouble protecting Manning who will have to throw. And when they try to run, they'll have problems.

OUT: Justin Pugh (knee), Brett Jones (calf), Marshall Newhouse (knee). And Adam Gettis (LG starter) is listed as questionable with a calf injury.

You don't want to be this thin at O-Line going on the road against a team that's bad but desperate (and laying points for us).

5. This is Giants first road game in a full month.

Small but relevant point. It'll be a shock to the system.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 9:12 PM ET #32

2016 Record: 34-16 (68%)

I hold two pages of write-up in my hand as I type this. I like to write. Physically, with pen and paper. If I could, if I lived in days gone by, I'd write with goose quill tip dipped gently into ink jar on papyrus. Maybe I'd be wearing a wig like one of those Founding Father wigs with lots of curls in them as I wrote. Maybe someone would be playing a religious hymn a harp with angels carved into it in the background as I wrote by candlelight to inspire. Maybe I'd live in a house that I built with my own hands like Michael Landon in Little House on the Prairie. If tomorrow we need milk, we milk the cows by hand on a small wooden stool which I also built. Maybe I take the papyrus over to the fire which toasts the bread we will have for dinner. Bread and water. Water and Bread. Maybe I throw the write-up in the fire. Maybe I watch it burn. Maybe as it burns, if you look close enough you can see the rising fire reflecting in my pupils. Maybe a small grin comes across my face. Maybe I cackle as all this happens, my hands steepled fingertip to fingertip.

Wait a minute. This story is partially true. I did just burn a 2 page write-up. It was a write-up which endorsed Navy. That write-up now billows to the heavens in small smoke stacks.

The pick:

ARMY +6 over NAVY

Enough with the pleasant fictions. Why did I come off Navy.

1. "If you can't beat the Walking Wounded, who can you beat?" angle.

Navy has never been more the Walking Wounded than they are right now:

Simply stated, the injury report is astonishing:

0

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 9:20 PM ET #33

2016 Record: 34-16 (68%)

I hold two pages of write-up in my hand as I type this. I like to write. Physically, with pen and paper. If I could, if I lived in days gone by, I'd write with goose quill tip dipped gently into ink jar on papyrus. Maybe I'd be wearing a wig like one of those Founding Father wigs with lots of curls in them as I wrote. Maybe someone would be playing a religious hymn a harp with angels carved into it in the background as I wrote by candlelight to inspire. Maybe I'd live in a house that I built with my own hands like Michael Landon in Little House on the Prairie. If tomorrow we need milk, we milk the cows by hand on a small wooden stool which I also built. Maybe I take the papyrus over to the fire which toasts the bread we will have for dinner. Bread and water. Water and Bread. Maybe I throw the write-up in the fire. Maybe I watch it burn. Maybe as it burns, if you look close enough you can see the rising fire reflecting in my pupils. Maybe a small grin comes across my face. Maybe I cackle as all this happens, my hands steepled fingertip to fingertip.

Wait a minute. This story is partially true. I did just burn a 2 page write-up. It was a write-up which endorsed Navy. That write-up now billows to the heavens in small smoke stacks.

The pick:

ARMY +6 over NAVY

Enough with the pleasant fictions. Why did I come off Navy.

1. "If you can't beat the Walking Wounded, who can you beat?" angle.

Navy has never been more the Walking Wounded than they are right now:

Simply stated, the injury report is astonishing:

Navy �C Quarterback Will Worth (foot), wide receiver Tyler Carmona (foot), slotbacks Toneo Gulley (Lisfranc), Darryl Bonner (concussion), Josh Brown (left ankle) and Josh Walker (left shoulder), inside linebacker Mike Kelly (shoulder) and outside linebacker Josiah Powell (leg) are all out; Cornerback Elijah Merchant (head) and wide receiver Craig Scott (ankle) are questionable; slotback Dishan Romine (head) and inside linebacker Hudson Sullivan (knee) are probable.

This is in addition to the other key injuries suffered throughout the year, including Tago Smith, bringing the total out to a whopping 10.

Army - Andy Davidson is questionable. And that's IT!

On this point ALONE, the injury report is so disparate

0

2016 Record: 34-16 (68%)

I hold two pages of write-up in my hand as I type this. I like to write. Physically, with pen and paper. If I could, if I lived in days gone by, I'd write with goose quill tip dipped gently into ink jar on papyrus. Maybe I'd be wearing a wig like one of those Founding Father wigs with lots of curls in them as I wrote. Maybe someone would be playing a religious hymn a harp with angels carved into it in the background as I wrote by candlelight to inspire. Maybe I'd live in a house that I built with my own hands like Michael Landon in Little House on the Prairie. If tomorrow we need milk, we milk the cows by hand on a small wooden stool which I also built. Maybe I take the papyrus over to the fire which toasts the bread we will have for dinner. Bread and water. Water and Bread. Maybe I throw the write-up in the fire. Maybe I watch it burn. Maybe as it burns, if you look close enough you can see the rising fire reflecting in my pupils. Maybe a small grin comes across my face. Maybe I cackle as all this happens, my hands steepled fingertip to fingertip.

Wait a minute. This story is partially true. I did just burn a 2 page write-up. It was a write-up which endorsed Navy. That write-up now billows to the heavens in small smoke stacks.

The pick:

ARMY +6 over NAVY

Enough with the pleasant fictions. Why did I come off Navy.

1. "If you can't beat the Walking Wounded, who can you beat?" angle.

Navy has never been more the Walking Wounded than they are right now:

Simply stated, the injury report is astonishing:

Navy �C Quarterback Will Worth (foot), wide receiver Tyler Carmona (foot), slotbacks Toneo Gulley (Lisfranc), Darryl Bonner (concussion), Josh Brown (left ankle) and Josh Walker (left shoulder), inside linebacker Mike Kelly (shoulder) and outside linebacker Josiah Powell (leg) are all out; Cornerback Elijah Merchant (head) and wide receiver Craig Scott (ankle) are questionable; slotback Dishan Romine (head) and inside linebacker Hudson Sullivan (knee) are probable.

This is in addition to the other key injuries suffered throughout the year, including Tago Smith, bringing the total out to a whopping 10.

Army - Andy Davidson is questionable. And that's IT!

On this point ALONE, the injury report is so disparate

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 10:47 PM ET #34

2016 Record: 34-16 (68%)

I hold two pages of write-up in my hand as I type this. I like to write. Physically, with pen and paper. If I could, if I lived in days gone by, I'd write with goose quill tip dipped gently into ink jar on papyrus. Maybe I'd be wearing a wig like one of those Founding Father wigs with lots of curls in them as I wrote. Maybe someone would be playing a religious hymn a harp with angels carved into it in the background as I wrote by candlelight to inspire. Maybe I'd live in a house that I built with my own hands like Michael Landon in Little House on the Prairie. If tomorrow we need milk, we milk the cows by hand on a small wooden stool which I also built. Maybe I take the papyrus over to the fire which toasts the bread we will have for dinner. Bread and water. Water and Bread. Maybe I throw the write-up in the fire. Maybe I watch it burn. Maybe as it burns, if you look close enough you can see the rising fire reflecting in my pupils. Maybe a small grin comes across my face. Maybe I cackle as all this happens, my hands steepled fingertip to fingertip.

Wait a minute. This story is partially true. I did just burn a 2 page write-up. It was a write-up which endorsed Navy. That write-up now billows to the heavens in small smoke stacks.

The pick:

ARMY +6 over NAVY

Enough with the pleasant fictions. Why did I come off Navy Because for the innumerable advantages for Army. And here they are, like never before.

1. "If you can't beat the Walking Wounded, who can you beat?" angle.

Navy has never been more the Walking Wounded than they are right now:

Simply stated, the injury report is astonishing:

Navy �C Quarterback Will Worth (foot), wide receiver Tyler Carmona (foot), slotbacks Toneo Gulley (Lisfranc), Darryl Bonner (concussion), Josh Brown (left ankle) and Josh Walker (left shoulder), inside linebacker Mike Kelly (shoulder) and outside linebacker Josiah Powell (leg) are all out; Cornerback Elijah Merchant (head) and wide receiver Craig Scott (ankle) are questionable; slotback Dishan Romine (head) and inside linebacker Hudson Sullivan (knee) are probable.

This is in addition to the other key injuries suffered throughout the year, including Tago Smith, bringing the total out for year to a whopping 10. This very site has the total injuries at 16. Tago Smith was ages ago? It's true. But it's an indication of starter after starter after starter going down.

Army - Andy Davidson is questionable. And that's IT!

Huge advantage for what is almost a 100% healthy Army team.

On this point ALONE it would not be unreasonable to say that in the history of this rivalry, there has NEVER been a more contrasting injury report, this one clearly favoring Army. That's going back to 1890. If there was a bigger injury disparity it came during wartime, LITERALLY, and there would be some slightly more important things going on than injury reports for a football game.

But it gets worse for Navy.

2. The remaining healthy players are tattered and torn because of the missing bye week.

Navy was supposed to play East Carolina on the Thursday following the win over Houston. That game was postposed due to Hurricane Matthew. So it was a bye that wasn't a bye, when they didn't need it and weren't planning for it.

Instead, because of the Hurricane, and because Navy has played for it's conference championship, Navy will have played for 8 straight weeks. The injury report, be it luck or lack of rest, bears the rotten fruits of their bye gone bye-bye.

NEVER has Navy played 8 straight weeks leading up to their all-time historic Army game.

But this is compounded by something even worse for Navy.

3. Navy has never had less than even a two week break to face Army since ....1941.

Traditionally, these schools have had at least two weeks to prepare for their rivalry game. And for good reason. The world's eyes are on them with pride, celebrating the military along with the military men and women themselves.

But this year, Navy had it's conference championship to play in. That means Navy has had, get this, ONLY THREE full practices to prepare for Army (1 day rest, 1 day film and media, 3 practice and 1 day travel, then game day = 6 days in between the game.

That is the fewest number of practices EVER in 117 meetings. Think about how historic this lack of preparation is. This has NEVER happened.

And on the other side of the ball?

0

2016 Record: 34-16 (68%)

I hold two pages of write-up in my hand as I type this. I like to write. Physically, with pen and paper. If I could, if I lived in days gone by, I'd write with goose quill tip dipped gently into ink jar on papyrus. Maybe I'd be wearing a wig like one of those Founding Father wigs with lots of curls in them as I wrote. Maybe someone would be playing a religious hymn a harp with angels carved into it in the background as I wrote by candlelight to inspire. Maybe I'd live in a house that I built with my own hands like Michael Landon in Little House on the Prairie. If tomorrow we need milk, we milk the cows by hand on a small wooden stool which I also built. Maybe I take the papyrus over to the fire which toasts the bread we will have for dinner. Bread and water. Water and Bread. Maybe I throw the write-up in the fire. Maybe I watch it burn. Maybe as it burns, if you look close enough you can see the rising fire reflecting in my pupils. Maybe a small grin comes across my face. Maybe I cackle as all this happens, my hands steepled fingertip to fingertip.

Wait a minute. This story is partially true. I did just burn a 2 page write-up. It was a write-up which endorsed Navy. That write-up now billows to the heavens in small smoke stacks.

The pick:

ARMY +6 over NAVY

Enough with the pleasant fictions. Why did I come off Navy Because for the innumerable advantages for Army. And here they are, like never before.

1. "If you can't beat the Walking Wounded, who can you beat?" angle.

Navy has never been more the Walking Wounded than they are right now:

Simply stated, the injury report is astonishing:

Navy �C Quarterback Will Worth (foot), wide receiver Tyler Carmona (foot), slotbacks Toneo Gulley (Lisfranc), Darryl Bonner (concussion), Josh Brown (left ankle) and Josh Walker (left shoulder), inside linebacker Mike Kelly (shoulder) and outside linebacker Josiah Powell (leg) are all out; Cornerback Elijah Merchant (head) and wide receiver Craig Scott (ankle) are questionable; slotback Dishan Romine (head) and inside linebacker Hudson Sullivan (knee) are probable.

This is in addition to the other key injuries suffered throughout the year, including Tago Smith, bringing the total out for year to a whopping 10. This very site has the total injuries at 16. Tago Smith was ages ago? It's true. But it's an indication of starter after starter after starter going down.

Army - Andy Davidson is questionable. And that's IT!

Huge advantage for what is almost a 100% healthy Army team.

On this point ALONE it would not be unreasonable to say that in the history of this rivalry, there has NEVER been a more contrasting injury report, this one clearly favoring Army. That's going back to 1890. If there was a bigger injury disparity it came during wartime, LITERALLY, and there would be some slightly more important things going on than injury reports for a football game.

But it gets worse for Navy.

2. The remaining healthy players are tattered and torn because of the missing bye week.

Navy was supposed to play East Carolina on the Thursday following the win over Houston. That game was postposed due to Hurricane Matthew. So it was a bye that wasn't a bye, when they didn't need it and weren't planning for it.

Instead, because of the Hurricane, and because Navy has played for it's conference championship, Navy will have played for 8 straight weeks. The injury report, be it luck or lack of rest, bears the rotten fruits of their bye gone bye-bye.

NEVER has Navy played 8 straight weeks leading up to their all-time historic Army game.

But this is compounded by something even worse for Navy.

3. Navy has never had less than even a two week break to face Army since ....1941.

Traditionally, these schools have had at least two weeks to prepare for their rivalry game. And for good reason. The world's eyes are on them with pride, celebrating the military along with the military men and women themselves.

But this year, Navy had it's conference championship to play in. That means Navy has had, get this, ONLY THREE full practices to prepare for Army (1 day rest, 1 day film and media, 3 practice and 1 day travel, then game day = 6 days in between the game.

That is the fewest number of practices EVER in 117 meetings. Think about how historic this lack of preparation is. This has NEVER happened.

And on the other side of the ball?

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 11:03 PM ET #35

3. Army has been preparing for this game for THREE weeks, and it really is FOUR.

November 19th, Army last played. Almost three full weeks to prepare for this game. But here's one better: They played Morgan State that day and destroyed them. That is an FCS team. A very bad FCS team. I can assure you, given the lip service the coaching staff gave about preparing for Navy, Army has been preparing for Navy for FOUR weeks not 3.

Army has NEVER had that much time to game-plan for Navy in 117 games. 117. Never.

And you counter with "Rust Scal, Rust." And I answer with, "Would you rather have played 8 straight weeks without a bye for the first time since 1941?"

Look at both sides of the coin here folks. Not just one side. Rust does not even remotely compare.

0

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 11:14 PM ET #36

And it STILL gets worse for Navy.

4. From Will Worth to Zach Abbey.

NEVER before has a Navy player, not QB, any player generated so much offense. 2,595 yards. A Navy Single season record. AN FBS leading 25 rushing TD's. An additional 8 passing TD's.

Who replaces this? Zach Abbey.

This is his first collegiate start.

He was not on the depth chart last year. He is only in this position because of the slew of injuries absorbed by this team. He is a sophomore playing in what is the most famous rivalry in the world. In his first start. In 2.5 quarters last week he threw 13 passes. 2 of the 13 were intercepted. And now he assumes a record breakers roll in what is one of Navy's greatest seasons.

Amazingly, Will Worth is not the team's offensive captain. Toneo Gulley is. He's their best slot back. He's gone too. Went down on the same play. This doesn't even speak to the injury list above which I can go on and on about.

Sometimes you have the "Star Player Down, other players step up theory". This works for players like Lebron in the NBA. But the NBA is different. Players can take control in an intimate on the court environment and really rally round eachother. In the physical game of football, in the cold, with two teams playing offense and defense, this is a bit lost.

The psychological impact of losing Worth and Gulley and many others is troubling to say the least for Navy backers. This team has had three days to prepare compared to a month, suffered a bruising loss to Temple where they weren't even competitive and now they must get up for Army. They will get up, but can they match Army's intensity punch for punch, play for play with this much missing and so little rest and recoup. I say no.

Scal you have even MORE worse for Navy? Yes, we are not done. Sit tight!

0

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 11:27 PM ET #37

5. 14 Army losses in a row

Long losing streaks are very powerful. Teams want to snap them. If they can't they wait until the final day, the final moment. This is that day. It's all here. LOOK at the advantages above. If Army can not win this game, when will they beat Navy???

Look at Arizona, an AWFUL team this year. Nine losses in a row. In comes their rival? They destroyed them on the last day.

In an era of social media a FOURTEEN YEAR losing streak is definitely front and center in these players minds. Army has been consistently terrible and Navy has been consistently good. But look at the last 4 years:

21-17, 17-10, 34-7, 17-13, 27-21.

And you want to know how many wins Army had those years? 2 wins, 4 wins. 3 wins, 2 wins, 3 wins.

Army a consistently a bad team (and this is definitely their best of the last 5 years), has come closer and closer and closer to knocking off some excellent Navy teams!

In comparison, the Army team, who will play North Texas in a bowl, has a nice amount of confidence! We need confidence here. The importance of ending this streak looms large here, especially getting points.

You could counter with, "Well Scal, they didn't win at 13, 12, 11 or 10, why now? Army has covered 4 of the last 5 getting a ton of points 21, 16.5, 6, 7 and they didn't even need most of what we get here with a better team.

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scalabrine

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Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 11:40 PM ET #38

Still gets worse for Navy?

6. Trump

Trump will be in attendance. He is a pro-war/pro-military president. Is this good for Army or Navy or neither? Army. More spectacle, far more than ever before with Trump as a national lightening rod. More eyeballs. More media. More security and pomp and circumstance. This is more motivation for the underdog. Navy already had a great season and played for its conference championship. It doesn't need 'extras' to enhance it's superior game. This is standard. Not a big point but worth noting.

Counter-points for NAVY.

What are their advantages?

Coach is FAR better. Gameplan/functioning/O-Lines are far better(important for blocking when you run the option). Army's schedule was trash compared to Navy so their stats are inflated. Also their receivers are far bigger than Army's corners so I expect Navy to throw.

BUT, if Navy gets into a throwing contest, they will be out of their element. They tried this against Air Force and lost. Curiously, Air Force runs the option and Navy should be all over that. They know how to defend it obviously. But they threw 31 times! with Will Worth and lost 28-14. If they throw tomorrow, again, it will be uncharted waters, especially with a QB in his first start.

Finally, many here want to take Army but 'missed out' on a bigger spread.

The spread is imaginary. It doesn't exist. We make it exist. The game itself does exists. YOUR CAP and the time you take the do that as the line bounces around is FAR more important than a point here or there. In this case, it cost me several points from an opening of 10 in some places. That's fine because I think Army can win the game. So I'll take all 5.5 and be quite happy.

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scalabrine

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Posted: Dec. 9, 2016 - 11:46 PM ET #39

7. Army's defense

I know the schedule is poor but it's still worth noting:

19th best run defense in the nation.

14th best scoring defense

6th best in opponents passing yards allowed.

Honestly, I don't ever remember Army having this much effectiveness on defense in my life, even with terrible schedules.

I have watched Navy's defense and the eye test tells me one thing: It's bad. End of story. You saw it this year folks. This is a bad defense against the run and pass.

104th in opponent's pass yards.

67th in run defense

81st in scoring defense.

This is a bad defense. Why? The offense has scored SO much and has eaten up so much clock, the defense does not need to be good.

I really want to take the ML, but I'll take the points because....Army.

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scalabrine

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Posted: Dec. 11, 2016 - 12:01 AM ET #40

2016 Record: 37-16 (>68%)

The Pick:

Bills +3 (-115) Over Steelers

The first question will be, "Why take the points if you think the Bills will win?" For the same reason I did Army today: They are total fu**ups with their stupidity at the wrong times (you saw the turnovers today) so this added insurance in a line that should be a pick-um makes me feel very comfortable. I like feeling comfortable. A comfortable capper is a less-stressed capper and one that doesn't agonize the entire game. Which makes them a better capper. Which makes them enjoy capping and ensures they'll cap into the future.

The line is outrageous. Who is steaming this line under these circumstances? I'll tell you who, Anti-Rex bettors...squares and sharps alike. And I'm here to also tell you he'll win us this game.

1. T-Rex (Total Rex) angle combined with the Career on the Line angle

You get it all here folks. T-Rex is one of my most unpopular angles. I've never called it that but it stands for "Rex will get us the win." Why don't they like this angle? Because they don't like Rex, or his brother for that matter.

And I understand that 100%. He's about a .500 winning-percentage coach over his career. Lost guys a lot of money on this site. Me? He's made me a boatload. Him and Darrell Hazell on Purdue. Darrell is gone forever. We profited off him while we have him. We have to do the same with Rex here. It's all about situational capping. And the situation here is as good as it gets: Career on the Line (COTL)

I LOVE the Job On The Line Angle for coaches on the hot seat. But Career on the Line is so much stronger.

And this is it for Rex. This is his career. He has to make the playoffs. If they don't make the playoffs, they have to get rid of him and his brother and start to rebuild. He knows this. 100% he knows this.

Many here will say he's already eliminated from the playoffs. That doesn't matter. What matters is what he and his players think. And here is what he is selling them right now (and he is the NFL's best salesman): We'll beat the Browns and Jets for certain so we are really 8-6. This win will put us at 9-6. Think about how much better that sounds in the players eyes.

Folks, if they get to the final game of the season with a flicker of playoff hope, you can cut all the players legs off and Rex will have them beat the Jets even if they are in wheelchairs like Tom Cruise in Born on the 4th of July. He's not losing that game. That is the Game of the Year if Denver complies (as does some other teams to leap frog). He will turn them to dust and ash and then he'll collect all the ash and unrinate on it. There is no way he'll lose that game with the playoffs and career on the line. Let's hope for that game.

What matters is what HE thinks and what his players think NOT what you think about the Bills and the playoffs, and they still think they can make it, making nothing less than a win here against Pittsburgh acceptable.

He will throw the kitchen sink at them defensively. You will see it all. All the blitz packages, surprises, creative Rex. It will ALL be here in this game. Because it's his career. Pittsburgh has a hell of task in front of them because of this. Defensively they should go nuts. Blood should be on that field. Players will bleed for Rex if he convinces them. He will. It will be Total Rex.

Unpopular? Sure. And I've carried wheelbarrows of money away from the window because of it. So suit yourself on this one. I'm just putting it out there!