Thought I'd keep a log of my plays and see how we end up at the end of the season. I'll provide my selections with a brief write up of why I like the play.
I'll predominantly play the National Rugby League with a little bit of English Super League and the National Youth Competition thrown in as well.
Working on a couple of plays now and will hopefully bring you some money from these.
Best of luck.
Y-T-D 0-0-0
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Thought I'd keep a log of my plays and see how we end up at the end of the season. I'll provide my selections with a brief write up of why I like the play.
I'll predominantly play the National Rugby League with a little bit of English Super League and the National Youth Competition thrown in as well.
Working on a couple of plays now and will hopefully bring you some money from these.
2014 World Club Challenge > Sydney vs Wigan > Margin (>12.5) @ $1.67
Sydney Roosters to win 13+ against Wigan Warriors. (2 units).
I think this is a very attractive play for a number of reasons. Firstly, we can look at the two squads. The Roosters will only miss two players from their triumphant 2013 Premiership win in the forms of Luke O'Donnell (Retired) and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Injured).
Now to the Warriors squad. The first noticeable thing about their squad is the loss of the talented Sam Tomkins ... And what a loss it has been. Having watched the Warriors be outplayed in almost every facet in the Super League opener against what must be said was an ordinary Huddersfield outfit, the loss of Tomkins was almost immediately apparent.
A team lacking confidence travels halfway around the world to verse a Sydney Roosters side that held the best (if I'm not mistaken) defensive record in National Rugby League history last year and with their players shaking out the cob webs in the Auckland nines and trials against Newcastle, I can see them going home a very sorry bunch of lads.
Other key points:
Australian conditions suits Roosters fast attacking play. Wigan won't be saved by the dour, rain sodden pitches they're used too. No, this will be fast paced attacking football. Sonny Bill Williams, Sam Moa, Jarred Warea-Hargraves. 1.2.3 All game tiring out the Englishmen in the Australian conditions.
The Rooster squad as a whole is far superior to the Wigan Warriors and I believe that the quality defense and attacking game of the Roosters holds them in good stead to overcome an average defensive line and reshuffled attacking line up.
Tail, fade, or blatantly ignore. Whatever you do, prepare yourselves for the start of what is going to be a wonderful Rugby League season.
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2014 World Club Challenge > Sydney vs Wigan > Margin (>12.5) @ $1.67
Sydney Roosters to win 13+ against Wigan Warriors. (2 units).
I think this is a very attractive play for a number of reasons. Firstly, we can look at the two squads. The Roosters will only miss two players from their triumphant 2013 Premiership win in the forms of Luke O'Donnell (Retired) and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Injured).
Now to the Warriors squad. The first noticeable thing about their squad is the loss of the talented Sam Tomkins ... And what a loss it has been. Having watched the Warriors be outplayed in almost every facet in the Super League opener against what must be said was an ordinary Huddersfield outfit, the loss of Tomkins was almost immediately apparent.
A team lacking confidence travels halfway around the world to verse a Sydney Roosters side that held the best (if I'm not mistaken) defensive record in National Rugby League history last year and with their players shaking out the cob webs in the Auckland nines and trials against Newcastle, I can see them going home a very sorry bunch of lads.
Other key points:
Australian conditions suits Roosters fast attacking play. Wigan won't be saved by the dour, rain sodden pitches they're used too. No, this will be fast paced attacking football. Sonny Bill Williams, Sam Moa, Jarred Warea-Hargraves. 1.2.3 All game tiring out the Englishmen in the Australian conditions.
The Rooster squad as a whole is far superior to the Wigan Warriors and I believe that the quality defense and attacking game of the Roosters holds them in good stead to overcome an average defensive line and reshuffled attacking line up.
Tail, fade, or blatantly ignore. Whatever you do, prepare yourselves for the start of what is going to be a wonderful Rugby League season.
I'm going for the dog in this one to win an upset. In the last week South Sydney have lost both their starting halves in Luke Keary and Adam Reynolds. All their direction, kicking metres and field possession comes off the back of this dynamic pairing and to lose both of them certainly tips the scales in the favour of St. George Illawarra.
While the Dragons were poor in their limited showings of the Auckland Nines, they were without key playmakers Sam Williams and Garreth Widdop who will certainly complement the attacking flair of Josh Dugan and provide quality ball for their outside speed men in Morris, Dugan, Beale and Farrell.
I think the Dragons will definitely give this game a real shake and for the value they're paying at the moment I think they're definitely worth the risk.
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2014 Charity Shield > St George vs South Sydney
1:(Under 12.5) St George @ 3.50 (1 unit).
I'm going for the dog in this one to win an upset. In the last week South Sydney have lost both their starting halves in Luke Keary and Adam Reynolds. All their direction, kicking metres and field possession comes off the back of this dynamic pairing and to lose both of them certainly tips the scales in the favour of St. George Illawarra.
While the Dragons were poor in their limited showings of the Auckland Nines, they were without key playmakers Sam Williams and Garreth Widdop who will certainly complement the attacking flair of Josh Dugan and provide quality ball for their outside speed men in Morris, Dugan, Beale and Farrell.
I think the Dragons will definitely give this game a real shake and for the value they're paying at the moment I think they're definitely worth the risk.
I saw Bowen play for them in their opening ESL match and he was pedestrian at best. Of course he is a dynamic player and will always have flashes of brilliance, but I don't think he has that 'Thurston' type player he had at the Cowboys to bring the best out of him. It's clear the English don't know him at all yet and I can't see that changing with the quality of their halves any time soon.
My understanding is that Inglis will play, but I cannot imagine him being risked/playing a whole game so close to the start of round one. He is one to watch though.
GL.
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Thanks mate.
I saw Bowen play for them in their opening ESL match and he was pedestrian at best. Of course he is a dynamic player and will always have flashes of brilliance, but I don't think he has that 'Thurston' type player he had at the Cowboys to bring the best out of him. It's clear the English don't know him at all yet and I can't see that changing with the quality of their halves any time soon.
My understanding is that Inglis will play, but I cannot imagine him being risked/playing a whole game so close to the start of round one. He is one to watch though.
I can't believe how weak St. George looked and I certainly learned my lesson from this performance.
The Roosters 13+ was a fairly safe bet and I was able to maximise profits by adding Total game score over 42.5, Roosters over 29.5 and Roosters -16.5 in game. I can provide picture evidence if anyone is skeptical, however as I didn't write them down I obviously won't count them in this thread.
YTD 1-1
+1 UNIT.
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Well I started off 1-1.
I can't believe how weak St. George looked and I certainly learned my lesson from this performance.
The Roosters 13+ was a fairly safe bet and I was able to maximise profits by adding Total game score over 42.5, Roosters over 29.5 and Roosters -16.5 in game. I can provide picture evidence if anyone is skeptical, however as I didn't write them down I obviously won't count them in this thread.
I know it is extremely early days, but for the life of me I cannot go past the following for round 1 before the odds change.
NRL Round 1 > North Qld vs Canberra > North Qld @$1.36
I know it might be a square bet, but at $1.36 I'm happy to go big extremely early on this one. Canberra's most attacking player in the form of Anthony Milford does not want to be playing for this coach or for this team. Their forward leader in David Shillington is out. Their coach walked out on his last team and from all indicators is not winning over the core playing group.
On the flip side the Auckland Nines showed the exciting new talent the Cowboys have coming through the ranks. The loss of Lachlan Coote was untimely, but the quality Michael Morgan will step in and be an able replacement. Throw in a refreshed and reinvigorated JT, Brent Tate and Matthew Scott combined with a squad of players buoyed by their Nines title success and I fail to see anything other than a Cowboys victory here. NQ at home will be too much for a lesser Canberra Raiders team.
Plays:
North Queensland Cowboys to win $1.36 (3 units)
North Queensland Cowboys to win +13 (will make a moderate play when the odds are released).
I'm also favouring the Warriors heavily at $1.60, but waiting for additional markets to come out before committing.
YTD 1-1-0 (Win/loss/push) +1 UNIT
**1 Unit = $100**
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I know it is extremely early days, but for the life of me I cannot go past the following for round 1 before the odds change.
NRL Round 1 > North Qld vs Canberra > North Qld @$1.36
I know it might be a square bet, but at $1.36 I'm happy to go big extremely early on this one. Canberra's most attacking player in the form of Anthony Milford does not want to be playing for this coach or for this team. Their forward leader in David Shillington is out. Their coach walked out on his last team and from all indicators is not winning over the core playing group.
On the flip side the Auckland Nines showed the exciting new talent the Cowboys have coming through the ranks. The loss of Lachlan Coote was untimely, but the quality Michael Morgan will step in and be an able replacement. Throw in a refreshed and reinvigorated JT, Brent Tate and Matthew Scott combined with a squad of players buoyed by their Nines title success and I fail to see anything other than a Cowboys victory here. NQ at home will be too much for a lesser Canberra Raiders team.
Plays:
North Queensland Cowboys to win $1.36 (3 units)
North Queensland Cowboys to win +13 (will make a moderate play when the odds are released).
I'm also favouring the Warriors heavily at $1.60, but waiting for additional markets to come out before committing.
South Sydney vs Sydney : Line (-3.5) Sydney @$1.91 (2 units) Penrith vs Newcastle : Penrith Straight @$1.75 (1 unit) Manly vs Melbourne : Line (-4.5) Manly @$1.91 (2 units) St George vs Wests : Line (-1.5) St George @$1.91 (1 unit) North Qld vs Canberra : Margin (>12.5) North Queensland @$2.20 (2 units)
Good luck all. YTD - 1.1.0+1 UNIT
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South Sydney vs Sydney : Line (-3.5) Sydney @$1.91 (2 units) Penrith vs Newcastle : Penrith Straight @$1.75 (1 unit) Manly vs Melbourne : Line (-4.5) Manly @$1.91 (2 units) St George vs Wests : Line (-1.5) St George @$1.91 (1 unit) North Qld vs Canberra : Margin (>12.5) North Queensland @$2.20 (2 units)
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appreciate the kind words.
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