theclaw

Xmas day my new regression method has Ravens by under 5 pts.

1-13 ATS past 7 weeks with teams under 5 pt favorites.

Suggesting the play is on the Texans.

Texans 6-9 ATS  but Stroud has been good ATS as a dog in his short career not this season but and this is the largest dog Texans have been this season.

Texans came into this season over-rated and were due a regression  from last seasons  success which supports their poor ATS record.

Maybe spreads now catching up to their true value.

I think play is on the Texans even without my new regression method. 

I doubt I'll take action, maybe if the line goes up and I see those on you tube backing the Ravens for reasons that don't make sense.

Yep, Saints looked horrendous. 

Packers off 2 big wins, maybe not the best spot but I'll likely pass.............

Very nice strategy...........

@Fuse........

@D-Town........

Mon --- 0-1, lost 1.15 units

week --- 1-2, lost 1.25 units

Saints looked like a junior high team. Just pathetic. Rattler is horrendous, no 2 ways about that.

Packers now off 2 big wins going into next week.

My other system ..............17-12

KC -2.5 (-115) over Steelers --- 1.15 units

the system was on KC last week as well and got the win.

I think the Steelers might be the play though. Especially if Watt and Pickens is back and healthy enough to contribute a good game.

I won't take any action on this game at this point anyway only posting the plays of the system.

Line seems to be going up so grab it now of you like KC but wait if you like Steelers.

Pending play..............

Saints +14.5 (-115) over Packers --- 1.15 units

Saints by 16.9 with my new regression  method. 

17 or better being a play. 16.9 is in the Grey area.

Packers have Vikings on deck then Bears while Vikings play the Lions in the final week. 

Packers could finish tied with Vikings if they beat them and Lions beat them

Not sure who owns that tiebreaker though.

This game could catch the Packers looking ahead to next week and not taking this game so serious.

Yea most of them are not doing well...................

As it turned out the Dolphins were the right play. I forgot to check the lines before game time. Had line stayed +2 or gotten better I'd have taken the Dolphins.

Next year I may post more of these type games where I disagree with sharps or guys on you tube.

I might do this in playoffs. Sometimes their reasoning don't make sense and that was the case when they wanted to back 49ers 

My other system ...............17-12

week .....3-1

A very good spot this week and the system delivered. The lone loss was the Bills which was not a good team to back.

This season the system had 3 good spots and is 6-1 in these spots.

Incredible, another winning week fading teams under 5 pt favorites in my new regression method, fading Jets and Jags.......2-0 ATS

How bout those Cowboys ........ up 23-14 at the half.

My other system goes to 2-0 with Falcons big win.

2 more games to go.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Mskeets]App your time n efforts sir.[/Quote

Pending play .............

Saints +14.5 (-115) over Packers --- 1.15 units

My only play remaining this week unless I decide to play Dolphins closer to game-time.

I've seen on you tube guys saying sharps were pounding the 9ers over Dolphins.

I'd have to disagree  with that play. I don't see why they'd like 9ers so much. They aren't good. Terrible in the red zone, lack any scoring efficiency. 

I'd lean Dolphins here and would consider taking half a unit on them.

Buy I'll wait out this line to see if it continues to rise. Closer to game time I'll decide being a 4:25 start time.