LeagueCapper

My post always comes on the L days, sigh.

Absolute shit performance in turnovers and flags by both Colts and Commanders today 

Rough day, we'll get it back

Thanks everyone, nice to see a lot of similar faces and names in here.

GL today 

Hope you've been well brother, been a while for sure!

Long time, hey lmb 

Hey Eddy 

Thanks brother, gl. Also Matt Ryan looked awful last week, but KC pass rush is much better than Titans

No charge this season

GL everyone

Thanks guys - this is a duplicate thread. Mods please delete

2nd thread has 2nd writeup on it

All my plays and writeups are documented, can find them quite easily

Thanks CC, likewise

Waddup Ballin

GL eastside

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Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

The Titans under 9 season wins was our biggest future bet this off-season for good reason. They had a very overrated 12-5 record last season, and got worse in the off-season trading away their #1 WR AJ Brown. Despite that, we took them +2.5 last week against the Raiders as it was a terrific spot for them off the 41-7 beatdown to the Bills. Coming into this week, I expect the Titans to revert to the norm of being an overrated team.

The Titans went 2-0 against the Colts a season ago, but it wasn't thanks to Derrick Henry. The Colts are dominant against the rush and held him to 181 yards on 56 carries in the two games, for a low 3.4 yards per carry. Through three weeks this season, they are #2 in rush defense DVOA. Instead it was AJ Brown going off in one game for 155 yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD that sealed the deal, and Carson Wentz imploding that cost them in the other.

I expect Indy's offense to look better this week as they go from facing the Chiefs who are 2nd in QB pressure rate, to facing a Titans team who is 14th. For a slow and immobile QB like Matt Ryan, that is a big difference. I don't expect Ryan to get sacked 5 times and get hit 10 times again like last weekend. The Colts also get their top linebacker Shaq Leonard back just in time who will be making his season debut. I look for a comfortable win by Indy in this one.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

These teams couldn't have gone in opposite directions in terms of perception any more than they did this past weekend. However it's important to note who these teams faced. The Commanders lost ugly, but did so against the Eagles who are currently -1600 to make the playoffs, and +305 to win the NFC. In fact, the Eagles are the favorite to win the NFC at the moment by oddsmakers. We bet Philly -6 last weekend expecting they would handle Washington - they are a very elite team this year and a team we added a lot of futures on this season in the NFC (along with Green Bay). It's not all that bad losing to that type of team, even if the score was lopsided, as many teams will suffer the same when facing them. Just ask the Vikings two weeks ago.

The Cowboys on the other hand, beat the NY Giants. A team that was fortunate to be 2-0 heading into the weekend, and a team that is +250 to make the playoffs at the moment. Dallas is getting a ton of praise for beating a terrible team, but let's not forget they are still playing with a backup QB - behind a roster that got worse in the off-season. 

The Commanders were embarrassed this past Sunday letting their QB get sacked 9 times. Part of that was the offensive line being manhandled by the Eagles front, and the other part was Carson Wentz holding onto the ball too long because his receivers couldn't get separation. Well, the Eagles have two shut down corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry playing behind a ferocious front. The Cowboys starting cornerbacks are Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown, who are currently ranked 70th and 95th in terms of cornerback play this season. I expect Ron Rivera to make adjustments this game with quicker passes which should work against a worse secondary, and improved play by an offensive line that will be extremely focused after letting their QB get smacked all game last Sunday. They will also be making a move at the center position to Nick Martin as they've shown confidence in him in practice lately and want to try and see if he's an upgrade over Wes Schweitzer who got destroyed last week. Martin is someone that played as Wentz center in college together so there should be familiarity already. 

This spread is an overreaction to recent events, and I'll happily jump on Washington in this game as I expect them to win straight up.

Sunday:

1. Commanders +3.5 -118 (6x) +150 (1x)
2. Commanders TT Over 19.5 -108 (1x)
3. Colts -3 -135 (5x)

Teaser:

1. Commanders +10 / Colts +3 -130 (4x)
   
   NFL YTD: 17-3 ATS +46.75 Units
   

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

These teams couldn't have gone in opposite directions in terms of perception any more than they did this past weekend. However it's important to note who these teams faced. The Commanders lost ugly, but did so against the Eagles who are currently -1600 to make the playoffs, and +305 to win the NFC. In fact, the Eagles are the favorite to win the NFC at the moment by oddsmakers. We bet Philly -6 last weekend expecting they would handle Washington - they are a very elite team this year and a team we added a lot of futures on this season in the NFC (along with Green Bay). It's not all that bad losing to that type of team, even if the score was lopsided, as many teams will suffer the same when facing them. Just ask the Vikings two weeks ago.

The Cowboys on the other hand, beat the NY Giants. A team that was fortunate to be 2-0 heading into the weekend, and a team that is +250 to make the playoffs at the moment. Dallas is getting a ton of praise for beating a terrible team, but let's not forget they are still playing with a backup QB - behind a roster that got worse in the off-season. 

The Commanders were embarrassed this past Sunday letting their QB get sacked 9 times. Part of that was the offensive line being manhandled by the Eagles front, and the other part was Carson Wentz holding onto the ball too long because his receivers couldn't get separation. Well, the Eagles have two shut down corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry playing behind a ferocious front. The Cowboys starting cornerbacks are Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown, who are currently ranked 70th and 95th in terms of cornerback play this season. I expect Ron Rivera to make adjustments this game with quicker passes which should work against a worse secondary, and improved play by an offensive line that will be extremely focused after letting their QB get smacked all game last Sunday. They will also be making a move at the center position to Nick Martin as they've shown confidence in him in practice lately and want to try and see if he's an upgrade over Wes Schweitzer who got destroyed last week. Martin is someone that played as Wentz center in college together so there should be familiarity already. 

This spread is an overreaction to recent events, and I'll happily jump on Washington in this game as I expect them to win straight up.

Sunday:

1. Commanders +3.5 -118 (6x) +150 (1x)
2. Commanders TT Over 19.5 -108 (1x)
3. Colts -3 -135 (5x)

Teaser:

1. Commanders +10 / Colts +3 -130 (4x)

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

The last time we faded the Warriors was the only time they lost so far in November which was back against the Hornets. I've had them on my overvalued list for quite some time, but have been very patient on waiting for the best spot to fade them. This in my opinion, is the best spot we will have. Golden State's offense is predictable right now, they have the hottest offense in the NBA at the moment and are feasting when they face bad defenses, but they've also faced the easiest schedule in the league to date. Here are the defensive efficiencies of the teams they've faced recently:

Portland - 29th
Philadelphia - 25th
Toronto - 23rd
Detroit - 21rst
Cleveland - 12th
Brooklyn - 8th (Nets weren't healthy)
Charlotte - 22nd
Houston - 18th
Memphis - 30th
New Orleans - 27th

The Clippers have the #1 weighted defensive efficiency in the entire NBA right now, and the last time these two teams played the Clippers had a 9 point fourth quarter lead before blowing it late, however that game was in Golden State. The Warriors haven't faced a healthy top 10 defense all season, and they will now face the top ranked D in the league. This will be a big difference from what Golden State has faced so far. I strongly believe the Clippers will win this game and this will be a very big play.

Clippers +2.5

NBA YTD: 30-21 ATS (59%)
NFL & NBA, Last 2 Weeks: 19-8 ATS (70%)