Last2thirst

Race 5: - I think about 5 horses have a chance, but one only has to KEY one horse or take only 2 horses and if alive in the PICK5 , backup your ticket if its paying over $250 with some win money on some other horses who I will say have GOOD SHOT to win

Surprise Horse(s): #2 (good driver/trainer but weakest JMAC horse in first 5 races 

# 4 < good driver change and this horse though fails to beat one of my top horses

Best: #5, 7, 9 

Strong chance: #1, 9 < will appear KEYED in some Luc Roy wheel/KEY plays

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This is what I wrote the other day.....going with a slight revamp because I have decided to only go with #67 in RACE 1 on every ticket in the PICK5 I do (many smaller ones) and then try for some longshot Pick3's with others and maybe a couple with them:

Every Boxing Day, there is a 20-40 to 1 who wins....and so....my first 3 plays will be PICK3s. These tickets are being played:

Race 1 P3s (20 cent plays)

349/ 2346710/ 289 =$10.80

67 / 1589/ 289 = $4.80

67 /58 / 289 = $2.40

4/ 236710/ 289 = $3

5/ 2346710/ 289 = $3.60

 67/ ALL/ 6 = $4

34679/ 2346710/ 6 = $6

Cost = $34.60 < hit one of those, I believe I will profit and maybe earn 3-10x if the right mix occurs

Daily Double $4 > 67 / 4 (JMac surprise win in 2nd race) = $8 

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PICK5 - JMAC's best chance to win are Race #1 and #3 but he will have a very live horse in a tough race in Race #4

I think you therefore, only need #67 in Race #1 and will try many tickets with those two and a JMAC wheel to win race #3 and Race #4. Its the best strategy for me to win a nice ticket, which is to add other longer odds plays in other races 

I also think Luc Roy can bring home one of his two horses in race 4 and 5 for a nice price

I think Austin Sorrie SHOULD win one of the two races he is in in race 4 or 5 and maybe both on very live horses

What I am likely playing:

67 / 236710/ 2/7/ 147 = $6

67/ 236710/ 2/ 259 / 5 = $6

67 / 236710 / 2 / 8/ 147 = $6

67/ 236710/ 2/ 259/ 9 = $6

67/236710/89/1/14579 = $20

67 / 236710/ 2/ 78/59 x 2 tickets = $16

Above are tickets where I wheel JMAC to win race 3 or 4 and combo with Sorrie winning race 4 or 5 OR Luc Roy wining race 4 or 5

Last tickets: JMAC only has a shot of winning race #1 and Austin Sorrie winning race 4 or 5

67/ 236710 / 9/ 7 / 14579 = $10

67 / 236710 / 9 / 25789/ 5 = $10

Pick3 $1  > 67 / 23610 / 8 = $8

That is $80 on PICK5's plus the $50 on the other exotics ...I won over $300 ....so doing a little press here but you don't have to....just follow along and maybe make your own ticket using some of my numbers or KEYS

I have created 2 other versions of something like above for my PICK5 and will decide tomorrow when I get to the window which way to go

NOTE: RACE #1 ***** - just noticed something!! #6 Speed of Sound was qualified NOT by JMac, but Dan O'Brien which means the horse did most of the speed on his own and could have went a second quicker with JMac's confident steers....BEWARE ! It now moves up to top contender with #7 and #4 in my opinion

Race 4: - there could be some surprise horses but 4-5 horses standout

Surprise horse: #2 Hestonator < might get overlooked with some other strong horses BUT this is Rene Plante's only drive on the card and he will go for it ala Colin Kelly going for it on the last two cards and me sniffing it out

Figures/take: - 1789 and might leave #5 out because he will need a race since the qualifier shows this so I will use in a PICK3 starting in RACE 2 with ALL with/ 289 / 25

Posting Race 5 picks.....and maybe a PICK6 try later tonight.....xmas is calling me with family

Merry xmas and enjoy the day everyone! 

Every Boxing Day, there is a 20-40 to 1 who wins....and so....my first 3 plays will be PICK3s:

These tickets are being played:

Race 1 P3s (20 cent plays)

3469/ 124578/ 289

5/ 236710/ 289

34679/ 235610/ 6

Cost = $22.40 < hit one of those, I believe I will profit and maybe earn 5-10x if the right mix occurs

Pick5 I am still working on....

Apparently, also a first for Mohawk is starting Race 4 I believe, you can play a PICK6 instead of a PICK4 which they used to have and with this one, like the pick5, the jackpot can grow if no one hits......payouts will be good on this one and its the type of ticket where you wheel one medium to long shot in a few races and play multiple tickets if you like it.....I may create a ticket and suggest one or not. Still mulling. Only if I feel I have a KEY or TWO and an edge /angle. For sure, I know that you almost never get 5-6 favorites winning.....and I know this because I charted every PICK5 in 2023 and most in 2024

Be aware that the last race of the card will likely have $450 000 - 550 000 in the pot guaranteed to pay out for a JACKPOT HI-5 ticket.....when I see these, if I had a good night, I will spend $50-100 on a ticket(s) and try to win one for $1 which gives you a shot at the overall pool and then I will play some 20 cent superhi-five fectas with one horse wheeled to win or finish 2nd or 3rd

Mohawk Boxing Day Harness Racing - note time > 1pm start

-WEATHER will not be a factor...horses will have nice winter temperatures, a firm track likely and a push wind off of the gate and coming home

Race 1: - interesting race > #7 is ready to win BUT, this race is going to have some tactics in it so I don't think its a good idea to key one horse with trotters that are fairly close in ability/talent (I will play a second ticket with it and my surprise horse #9 since both are fit and ready to roll)

-there are 2 three year olds that merit respect, and the 2 yr olds should be fit and stronger now that the year is ending and they are turning into 3 yr olds

Surprise Horse: none, unless you think #9 with Doug Brown can win out of the #9 hole

Figures/take:   3467 on one ticket  79 < playing a second ticket with these two horses

Race 2: - Some tantalizing horses in here but you may only need 3-4 horses

Surprise Horse: #7 (strong closer) #4 << first time JMAC on an unknown horse and if you fixate on times, you will leave out a horse that the driver/trainer might shave off 2-3 seconds off its lifetime mark > I have seen JMAC do this many times before

Figures/take: 236 and 10

#10 with best race mark and well trained > also #2 with great driver change and very fit horse... #6 should improve and that is scary

-#3 is a consideration to leave out because I think Luc Roy just wants to collect paycheques in this class without winning and being forced to move up and if you here this horse is claimed, you hit the BET TO WIN sign for a little more

Race 3: - in complete agreement with the racing forum handicapping ( I find he is damn good but be selective)

Surprise horse: #6 < traditionally not a driver here but has a nice horse 

Figures/take: 289 << Michel V is the 'trot whisperer' and his hands are gold with trotters....I have seen him sweep the field down the lane from outside posts because he just knows follow flow and always has his horses ready!!

-#2 could be KEYED but I caution the fact that a young trotter can get geared up too high their 2nd race I find and break by going too fast in the middle of the race or 3rd Q turn

Liking this looks of this PICK5 for value.....will cap Race 4 and 5 tomorrow and suggest some tickets

 Hey @Dickey227 Merry x-mas 

I am capping Thursday afternoon Boxing Day card and I think I have missed maybe 5 in about 35 years.

I won't promise anything. And I want say something is a sure thing but I will play KEYS and I will take chances because I know this game inside out and constantly learning. Since I know you are tailing, I will post some smaller tickets maybe that are fun and if you hit the Colin Kelly horse like I have 2 weeks in a row but leave someone else out, you will experience the joys/highs/lows and excitement that handicapping can bring and can put coin in your pocket....but the other side too is, I know people can get addicted especially after a major win or they feel that rush. I was like that through the 90's and then gave it up for about 3 years (I admit, I had a problem but one year it saved my ass with the mortgage!) and then just bet occasionally which is where I am at. Now I am retired and its a hobby and when my wife retires and we sell our home, we will have no debt and I will then start investing in buying yearlings with a consortium and being at the track a couple days a week. I grew up with some of the drivers and trainers way back.

I will try to cap 2-3 nights a week and sometime all 4 so best of luck. I am holding onto $345 in tickets from the last card when I hit the pick3s for 3x ....but I feel stupid for not spending $5 more and having that #9 in race 4 and cashing just over $6000 but very satisfied I spent roughly around $90 in all my tickets and have $255 profit....that is the name of the game.... win just enough to not dip into your pocket all the time and I also give 10-20% to my wife when I hit $400 or more on a PICK5 ....in 2021, I posted my old thread on the first page of this new thread and if you go back to the beginning while on it, I was hitting Pick5's and superfectas a lot and I earned profit of $26500 despite spending $200 a night because I was on such a roll. Wifey got from me around $3500 or more so she loves it. IF I have a ticket alive to the 4th race...I take my laptop up or we watch over dinner together and cheer or moan haha

Welcome aboard. Hopefully you can play a 20 cent play and not 60 cent or $1 as your local betting service might ask you to. I am so lucky that I work literally a 15 min drive from the track and live 45 min drive from home. 

Ended up adding another $170 back to my exotic bets account....now positive $107 balance

Went 5 - 1 on Teasers tonight but -2 UNITS on Sides 

 One of my fave games was Boise upsetting a big school from FLorida I think, when no one thought they could. Petersen was the coach? Its about preparation and attitude....a break here and there.... but talent/size/speed prepared trumps all and most programs have the coaches to do so. 

People need to not sleep on Franklin only because, I am aware that he has gone to the sports performance side of assisting his coaching and one thing he is doing that is super powerful, is training his players with a speed clock that they can see....and if in the drill they do not hit 90% of their top speed, he has them keep going and I know this can be uplifting and motivating for the players....if you show them the data how it improves performance. (I can see the explosiveness in his defensive players for sure this year and he has had better players and defense at times but they are insanely fast and cover ground/hit hard....this is the school of Micah Parsons pounding and exploding to the ball carrier or QB)

Its a technique I know of that came into the 90's as a philosophy....practice harder and longer at high speed....'a blowout' its called and then taper and strengthen and they come to the game all geared up and ready to tear the roof off with top speed and power

Its also all the rage in harness racing training too.... and sometimes I feel football players are a crossover to those marvellously fast,strong and powerful beasts

Results tonight: 

Double Up Play #2 - Tennessee Under 142 x 2U  ... I  go to to 4 UNITS now so will do as I always do and be selective....Tenn did not care about defense and that is the first time. Every year they disappoint me at least once or twice this way and too bad I caught it

Teasers 5 pt and $40 each and payback $45 profit:  

KEY: Charleston +6.5 with Under Tenn 149.5 << not sure why this total is climbing! 

with:

1. N. Dakota St -4.5   

2. Beavers -4.5   

3. Under Beavers 136.5  NO

4. Under Washington 149.5

5. Nebraska -3.5

Also:

Over Tennessee 139.5 with Charleston +6.5 with N.Dakota Over 133.5  

Spent $240 > 3 - 1 > returned $255 so far with two open plays and each win brings back $85 into my account....not bad

Exotic account balance = -$63 lower but again, this should bring this $1000 account back up over $1000 after the games late here

It paid more!!! 

GOOD NIGHT ....made cash on pick3  but just missed the PICK5 without spending much money again

$0.20 Pick 3 2 / 9 / 3 (3 of 3) $115.92
$0.20 Pick 5 6,7 / 6 / 2 / 9 / 3 (5 of 5) $6,043.07

#3 won in a fight with #2

Too bad I missed out on cashing $5000+...just left out one horse

Payouts are very good....I will make money tonite on my pick3s but just missed out by one horse leaving out because I did like #9 as an upset but thought post 9 would be too difficult:

3
Codename Cigar Box
 $5,853.40 (5 of 5)

What a shame....I decided to leave #9 out thinking the wind would be bad for the horses and the horse came from dead last and won....

 I only have some pick3's alive but they should pay well

SHIT! You cannot pick all the horses. I tried

I left out Billy Davis and there ya go....he wins a big one in the snow with his driving style

Its a nice ticket....probably gonna payout a minimum $400 to #3 in Race 5 if it goes favorite in race #4

123578

6 < Colin Kelly key again

24

145678

3

#2 won!! 

I am next with many horses and then last leg #3 with all kinds of backup tickets

Pick3 is only paying out this amount but I get back more than half what I put in

> #2 Rockin N Talkin
 $51.21 (3 of 3)

First Pick5 I punched in the terminal at the off track tonite:

123578

6 < Colin Kelly key again

24

145678

3

WOW!!!! 

Coliin Kelly wins again on the #6 BUT this time only 6-1 (10-1 in the book) and I have him KEYED in PICK3 and have ALL ticket in next leg for 20 cent .... 5 horses, him keyed and ALL and a new pick3 with ALL in next race and 5 horses in Race 4 ..... I have in Race 4 > 14567 ....but I do have 89 on tickets starting in race 3 

What I said about Colin Kelly horse tonight between 5 - 6 pm:  "Race 2: Well, I cannot believe it!! Colin Kelly who hit that 52-1 for me on a PICK3 and just missed on my PICK5 is racing in the 2nd race with a nice trotter that is 10-1 in the book and this horse has a shot at winning because the horse trotted FREE FOR ALL down in the U.S. and did a 152'4 on a 5/8 track!! #6"

I now have one ticket alive with him in the PICK5 and with #2 and #4 in this race and then a bunch after ......in race #4 ....see my ticket above

Jesus...having fun and hitting the right surprise horses lately 

They brought home #7 the fave at 8/5 JMAC in an easy win

1st time in 5 race cards JMAC has won the first leg....I am keeping stats on charts and looking for patterns. Will report patterns after 10 attempts

My tickets....just got back from OFF TRACK

123578

6 < Colin Kelly key again

24

145678

3

2nd ticket:

13578

12345789

24

147

3

Too many large pick3s to post..

Race 4: need 5 horses but I think you can leave out #5 because its a B-track driver and the horse tires and driver panics it looks like and that is not good at Mohawk down that long finish lane

Figures: 12467

P3 > 589

Race 5: - KEY #3 and #1 

BACKUP P3 or bet flat #2 and #267

Interesting night of racing on Monday

- snowfall will be regular and wind from SW at a breezy 15-20 mph so drivers that can bring horses 1st over or 2nd over on the last turn should benefit

-tough for horses on the outside to leave and get to the front in this wind, but some might 

-JMAC and Trevor Henry...sometimes Travis Cullen are the very best at this and I anticipate Billy Davis or Bob McClure striking in this driving manner if they have a horse....they are patient and strategic drivers who prefer moving a horse off of a helmet than front end

-not a cold night so horses will perform normally

NOTE: Travis Cullen has only 1 drive tonight and that is on his #3 in the 5th race DROPPING DOWN IN CLASS with one of my favorite horses to drop and pop which is Codename Cigarbox....I have won a nice PICK5 before keying it when it does this no matter what its previous times show ...and I have won. I once left him off in this scenario and it cost me a win of over $3000 a year ago 

Race 1: - #3 dropping down 2 classes since coming back is a KEY perhaps and Billy Davis driving but you really need 5-6 horses at least in my opinion

Surprise Horse: #2 << Dale Spence can steer a horse to shocking wins and this horse likes him as you can tell and it has raced faster in its past

Shocker: #4 or #9 << this is tough race and really almost calls for an ALL

Figures: 123578

Race 2: Well, I cannot believe it!! Colin Kelly who hit that 52-1 for me on a PICK3 and just missed on my PICK5 is racing in the 2nd race with a nice trotter that is 10-1 in the book and this horse has a shot at winning because the horse trotted FREE FOR ALL down in the U.S. and did a 152'4 on a 5/8 track!! #6

Surprise horse: #2 or #7 

Figures: 123456 << I may add the #8 and #9 to be sure

PICK3 use: 89 

Race 3: - KEY #4  and put in #2 with Jodi....its a tough race but I have the driver and trainer of the year last year together in the middle of the gate and this PICK5 will be too big otherwise. I will take my shot on this one and play some PICK3s with Colin Kelly winning this race again (stepping up but #3) or the 2rd race with #6 the trotter