HooAlum

@Martelxo92

 Miami is. I stated bowl (that was the old rule) but meant playoff. 

South Carolina had no realistic path and they knew it since they lost to Alabama and were behind them in the final rankings. They are not feeling snubbed. Miami is different given they blew it. Unraveling a likely result. Alabama feels flat out wronged. There was a streak in the BCS era that teams in Alabama¡¯s position (1sr team out) failed to cover in their bowl game 11 of 13 years and repeatedly lost as a favorite. 

however the other tells line movement and steam blunt that aspect. We shall see what wins out. 

The game tonight jumped the fence clearly making south Florida the play as those that follow the thread long enough know. (See kungfu2 whose post is spot on)

for bettorific they are ATS

@HooAlum

 Tonight's game has regressed to no bet as a note as the low ticket went away.  

@HooAlum

 Here is a pre-Christmas update through New Year's Day

San Jose State (1 unit) - low ticket Favorite

Pittsburgh (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and lopsided wagering outweighs P5 v G5

Rutgers (2 units) -reverse movement

Bowling Green (1 unit) - line movement

Navy (10 units)  - line movement, steam, low handle favorite, reverse movement, sharp signaling P5 v G5

Vanderbilt-Georgia Tech (No Bet) - No indicators

Arkansas (1 unit) - low handle favorite

Syracuse (3 units) - line movement and steam outweighs heavy bowl underdog

Southern Cal (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Connecticut (1 unit) - G5 v P5

Nebraska (1 unit) - low handle favorite

Louisiana-Lafayette (4 units) - Reverse movement, P5 v G5 heavy bowl underdog

Iowa State (2 units) - lopsided wagering, Bowl Snub outweighs sharp signal

Miami-Ohio (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

East Carolina-NC State (No Bet) -line movement balanced by G5 v P5

Colorado (2 units) - sharp signal, SKS outweighs reverse movement

Louisiana Tech (2 units) - over/under squeeze and heavy bowl underdog

Iowa (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

Alabama (9.5 units) - steam, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal outweighs heavy bowl underdog and playoff snub

Louisville (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

South Carolina (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering

PLAYOFFS

Penn State (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Texas (2 units) - sharp signal

Ohio State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

Notre Dame (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Here are today's games.  Lot of lien movement up and down in our first game but it all comes out as nothing in terms of a tell (though I would have loved to have the 2 touchdowns earlier this morning). Re verse movement went away as the line settled in our afternoon game so it is not as big of a play.

Coastal Carolina (1 unit) - heavy handle on away favorite and heavy bowl underdog outweighs line movement

Northern Illinois (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal

@HooAlum

Very strong 3-0 day.  Now back to the other bowl games for the next week

@HooAlum

 Nice win as Texas holds on by the hook.  Ohio State no longer has a low handle but still has low ticket and sharp signal so a 2 unit play

@HooAlum

 Here is playoff Saturday.  A couple of big plays developing, especially in Austin.  I might want to grab now at 13.5 before it gets to two touchdowns.

PLAYOFF First Round

Penn State (2 units) - sharp signal

Texas (9 units) - Line Movement, low ticket favorite, sharp signal. reverse movement

Ohio St (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

@HooAlum

 poor start to the day.  feel robbed in Ohio as they should have closed that backdoor.  Tulane was just a bad miss where I completely misread the steam.  Even with that the other factors made it a sizable play so it was a bad miss.  Tonight is no longer Irish and now a push given that the handle moved upwards.

@HooAlum

PLAYOFF First Round

Notre Dame (1 unit) - sharp signal and low ticket favorite outweighs line movement

Penn State (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (5 units) - Line Movement, low ticket favorite, sharp signal

Ohio St (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

BOWL GAMES

Tulane (8 units) - steam, reverse movement, heavy bowl underdog, P5 v G5

Coastal Carolina (1 unit) - heavy handle on away favorite and heavy bowl underdog outweighs line movement

Northern Illinois (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

South Florida (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Toledo-Pittsburgh (no bet) - low ticket favorite balanced P5 v G5

Rutgers (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Arkansas St-Bowling Green (No Bet) - No indicators

Navy (10 units)  - line movement, steam, low handle favorite, reverse movement, sharp signaling P5 v G5

Vanderbilt-Georgia Tech (No Bet) - No indicators

Texas Tech (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Washington State (1 unit) - heavy bowl underdog

Southern Cal (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 I will get a more detailed update later this afternoon but wanted to get the noon game in because Ohio has popped with steam and line movement over the last 24 hours.  Grab while still under a touchdown. It is now a 4 unit play

@HooAlum

 Will update if things change but the game tonight has flipped from Georgia Southern 1 unit to Sam Houston at 1 unit based on the dropping line and the greater ticket count on Georgia Southern

@HooAlum

 Here is an update for the next week including the CFP.  Unfortunately close loss to start the night but it was only 1 unit.

UNLV (3 units) - line movement, steam (jumped the fence)

Georgia Southern (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Ohio (1 unit) -line movement

Tulane (7 units) - steam, reverse movement, heavy bowl underdog, P5 v G5 outweighs sharp signal

Coastal Carolina-UTSA (No bet) - heavy handle on away favorite balanced by line movement

Fresno St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

South Florida-San Jose State (no bet) - no indicators

PLAYOFF

Notre Dame (1 unit) - sharp signal 

Penn State (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Texas (5 units) - Line Movement, low ticket favorite, sharp signal

Ohio St (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

@HooAlum

Sorry but no earth shattering updates in tonight.  It all stayed the same for the last few days.  1 unit on WKU and 3 units on UNLV.  Same indicators.  Sharps have been absent from these early games as it seems the CFP has taken away the daily cadence of wagering we have seen in previous years.  That changes starting Friday as the sharp are starring to flex their muscles.  I'll report later tonight.

As a note how about last night.  Spread was 5, the indicators said no bet and the final score?  you guessed it 5 points.  Not a usual number.

@HooAlum

 two hours out and Memohis-West Virginia is no play as the lopsided wagering and the line movement are at odds and balance each other out.  There are some hints of reverse movement so if you are really needing to make a call I would go Mountaineers.

@HooAlum

 Well, a 2-0 weekend.  There were some changes.  \

One good - the Navy play was 4 units due to the reverse movement coming back as I hinted at and one that I completely blanked on until Gary Danielson mentioned it in game - Navy had a bye week compared to Army, so stupid to not mention that and add the unit before the game.

One bad - South Alabama had line movement drop to under a touchdown.  While that helped on the final spread it lowered the wager from 3 to 2 units. 

However, overall a good late change as opposed to championship game where Iowa State miss still leaves a mark.  Still, nice 1-0 bowl game start

Here is an early projection over the next week

West Virginia (2 units) - lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweighs line movement 

Western Kentucky (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

UNLV (3 units) - line movement, steam (jumped the fence)

Georgia Southern (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Ohio (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Tulane-Florida (NO Bet) - sharp signal balanced by heavy underdog

Coastal Carolina (1 unit) - heavy handle on away favorite

Fresno St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

PLAYOFF

Notre Dame (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Penn State (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Texas (1 unit) - Line Movement

Tennessee-Ohio St (No bet) - No indicators

@Bridge1

 yes, I want the handle to reach a particular level before including it.  More attention, the more certain the indicators as there are more data points to draw from and helps eliminate outliers (plus the book makers care more about heavily wagered games than lesser bet ones so their tells will be more prevalent).  Bowls games have been solid performers the last few years.  it will be interesting if the new expanded CFP takes away some of the attention and wagering form the traditional bowl slate.

@HooAlum

 Today's action

Navy (1 unit) - lopsided wagering (there used to be reverse movement on the line move from 6.5 to 6 but this morning it went back up to 6.5, if it moves back to 6 that would still be reverse movement and worth following)

CHANGE: South Alabama (3 units) - The betting patterns changed here now there is a low ticket and handle favrorite which favors USA.  The line movement also returned to normal. 

@HooAlum

 Well, after a run of great weeks definitely a disappointing end to the regular season (though maybe Army-Navy will turn up good).  There were some late adds that most saw but they were mainly negative.  Iowa State exploded as a 12 unit play (and then promptly exploded in the indicator's face).  You could see this as it jumped the fence so that is no surprise.  Penn State also had some late sharp movement that made that loss worse.  On the other hand Clemson got a nice play on the sharps late and Ohio-Miami went off teh board due to late sharp on the bobcats.  Here is how the season stand (lost the 10% profit level)

WEEKLY RECORD: 2-6

SEASON RECORD: 126-86 (59.43%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 7.6 units on 25 wagered (ugh!)

SEASON REVENUE: 876 units won on 812 wagered (7.88% profit)

************

Indicator Performance

Sharp Signal: 65.04%

SKS: 61.22%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%

Steam: 56.67%

Reverse Movement: 56.41%

Low Ticket Favorite: 54.64%

Line Movement: 53.7%

Style Points: 50% (50.77% 5 year weighted average)

Early West Coast Road Start: 50% (65.44% 5 year weighted average)

Bye Week Return: 49.09% (52.09% 5 year weighted average)

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51% (53.08% 5 year weighted average)

Lopsided Wagering: 47.57% (53.33% 5 year weighted average)

**********

Army-Navy early projection: Navy (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Weekend Bowl

Western Michigan (3 units) - lopsided wagering with negative line movement

@HooAlum

 While UNLV pulled back due to low handle appearing it still was a 1 unit loss so 4 units wagered and 4 units into the ether.  not a positive start but only one game is junking out as the Big XII will likely determine the weekend as most of the others are cat and dogs.

Iowa St (5 units) - reverse movement and sharp signal

Miami(OH) (1 unit) - sharp signal

Georgia (1 unit) - sharp signal

Louisiana-Lafayette (2 units) - sharp signal

Clemson (2 units) - sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - lopsided wagering