Griswold1

ADD:

Will write up later in a separate thread but want to grab all these lines now as they have already moved and will likely continue to do so:

Monday December 30:

1* Iowa +3

Tuesday December 31:

1* Illinois +9 1/2

1* Baylor ML -125

CFB YTD 16-15 +3.3 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 14-15 -2.7 units

I hit my 4* Game of the Year Monday on an easy win by UTSA.   The ACC was very weak this year and two teams that were a mess down the stretch are very vulnerable in bowls:

Thursday:

1* Toledo +7

There''s a chance I could get a better line by waiting as Pitt's excellent freshman QB is still questionable.  But Toledo comes out of a MAC that was unusually good this year and is more motivated as the game is just a short drive away in Detroit.  Pitt started out red hot but lost five in a row down the stretch as injuries took their toll.  Toledo also stunk down the stretch losing five of six but the QB is pretty good. 

Saturday:

2* UConn +3

Who is even coaching North Carolina?  Belichick is cleaning house and what's left of the coaching staff is lame duck.  The players are hardly focused on this game.  NC was putrid in a very weak ACC this year and the defense was really bad.  UConn keeps improving under Jim Mora but I admit the 8-4 SU record was against a very weak schedule.  But the key to this play is motivation.  The game is at Fenway Park which is a big deal for UConn and a pain in the ass for NC players facing obnoxious weather conditions.  Mora has had weeks to prepare for this game.  NC could have late opt-outs although the star RB may play.

Line continues to move and move.  Currently at -13.  Game is early 11am eastern start.

YTD 15-15 -0.7 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 14-15 -2.7 units

*******The pick below was posted by me last week (at -9) in my thread on my first bowl play.  The line has moved up another point and a half and is likely to keep moving as this game screams mismatch

Monday December 23:

4* College Football Game Of The Year UTSA -9 

1) Coastal Carolina's top two QBs his the portal and the starter has never taken a snap in a CFB game.

2) 17 Coastal players have hit the portal and aren't playing.  Not only are the two QBs gone, but the team's only two all-conference defensive players bailed too.  UTSA has almost all of its starters playing.

3)  UTSA has a high powered offense and QB Own McCown is very good with 24TDs and only 9 INTs.

4)  UTSA's weakness is its pass defense but with CC playing a third stringer at QB it may not be an issue.

5) UTSA improved down the stretch while CC regressed, going 2-5 ATS its last seven

6) There's stability at UTSA with the coaching staff coming back and the majority of the team willing to play the bowl.

7) I think CC is cratering under Coach Tim Beck.  After going 9-4 in 2022 under Chadwick, Beck went 8-5 in 2023 and 6-6 this year.  And now, massive transfer portal departures.

8) UTSA played a tougher schedule in the AAC than Coastal did in the Sun Belt.

9) UTSA outgained its opponents by 63 yard while CC was -23 yards.

10)  This is actually a home game for CC on their own home field, but so what?  Nobody is going to a game in Myrtle Beach the day before Christmas Eve

Friday December 27:

1* Toledo +7

YTD 11-7 +2.8 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 9-5 +3.3 units

Sunday:

1* Dolphins PK (-115)

San Francisco looks finished, the latest of many Super Bowl losers to crater the following year.  SF had only 11 FDs and just 191 yards against the Rams and faces a decent Miami defense.  Dolphins outgained Texans last week in a disastrous but misleading loss in which they were -3 in turnovers.

Opinions only:
Saturday:

Chiefs -3 1/2

Sunday:

Seahawks +3 (good value IF Geno plays)

ADD:

Monday Dec 23:

4* UTSA -9

(will write up later)

CFB YTD 14-15 -1.7 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 13-15 -3.7 units

I love the lesser bowls as there is often great value with big differences in motivations because of transfer portal, coach firings, etc.  Fist one here:

Tuesday December 17:

1* Memphis -3

West Virginia fired its coach and there are reports of lots of portal departures.   They're going to phone this one in after a disappointing 6-6 season.  Memphis, on the other hand, has stability and is coming off a 10-2 SU season and has a big time offense.  Huge QB edge for Memphis with Henigan who had a 23-6 ratio.  Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS in bowl games since Silverfield became coach.   Line has already moved several points for all the reasons already stated but in this case I believe the line movement has been correct.  

YTD 10-6 +1.9 units

2* 1-2 -2.5 units

1* 9-4 +4.4 units

While everybody talks about the strength of the NFC North, the AFC West isn't far behind with three possible playoff teams.  The Broncos still seem under the radar, so.....

2* Broncos -4

Denver is playing tremendous defense and its offense has improved all year.  Broncos are 10-3 ATS and we get Sean Payton off the bye here.   Indy was unconvincing before its bye in just beating New England.  Broncos 6-0 ATS as a favorite this year.   Bo Nix, who hasn't been asked to do too much, has been the most consistent rookie QB in league.

1*  Steelers +5 1/2

Battle of Pennsylvania.   Pittsburgh has won seven of its last eight and faces an Eagles team that may be in coast mode and was hardly dominant against the Panthers last week.   Pittsburgh is 10-3 ATS.

Opinion only:
Seahawks +3

NFL YTD 10-5 +4.1 units

2* 1-1 -0.3 units

1* 9-5 +4.4 units

I won my only play last week with Dallas.  A strong one this weekend:

2* Bears +4

Chicago could have won each of its last three against its rivals in the great NFC North but butchered all at the end.  SF is seven points worse than every one of those North teams.   Teams have a tendency to play really well right after a coach is fired.   SF is badly banged up and just seemed a whipped franchise in the debacle in the Buffalo Blizzard.  It is true that in the mediocre NFC West the 49ers are still alive and are playing for something whereas the Bears are toast, but I like getting four points on a team that has played way better than its won-loss record and has been hamstrung by atrocious coach.   SU win possible.

Opinion only:
Panthers +13 (too many points)

YTD 14-14 -0.6 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1*  13-14 -.2.6 units

1-1 last week but had a really bad beat on USC + 7 1/2 as Notre Dame had TWO 100 yard Pick Sixes in the final moments.

1*  Penn State +3 1/2

The only difference between these teams is Oregon is unbeaten.   Margin of victory, yardage difference, scores vs common opponents all seem about dead even.   Penn State ended the season really strong pummeling Maryland.   This is a big time value play.  I see the game as even but I get 3 1/2 and that half point is huge value.

YTD 13-13 -0.5 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 12-13 -1.5 units

I went 2-0 last weekend including a win on my only 2* play of the year with USC.  Back on the Trojans as one of two plays this weekend:

1* Marshall +3 1/2

For some reason Marshall has been underrated all year as its 9-2 ATS.  Marshall has lost only one conference game all year and that was by a single point.  It has to win to get to the Sun Belt title game next week.   No real knocks on James Madison which only regressed a little despite losing the coach and several players to Indiana.  There's just too much value getting Marshall as a dog.

1*  USC +7 1/2

I'm kind of addicted to USC as I've played them several times this year and am convinced they are better than their record.  They came from behind to beat UCLA last week and their defense has gotten pretty good.  Notre Dame has had a tremendous 10-1 season but the schedule has been very soft.  There may be more motivation for Notre Dame as it needs a win to ensure itself of a playoff spot and USC became bowl eligible last week but I think these two teams are very close in talent.   Again, this seems like too many points.

YTD 9-5 +3.1 units

2* 1-1 -0.3 units

1* 8-4 +3.4 units

Thursday:

1* Cowboys -3 (-125)

Two stink bomb teams here and it's true Dallas has been poor at home on Thanksgiving.  But there's way more talent on the Cowboys roster and NYG has to travel on short rest after a brutal home loss to Tampa.  Both coaches look like Dead Men Walking but the Cowboys actually played with some fire in the win over Washington.  Buying the hook is expensive and has backfired on me this year but I am addicted to avoiding the worst line in football: -3 1/2

Opinion only:
Dolphins +3    (Miami is Dr Jekyll with Tua and Mr Hyde without him; or is the other way around?  Anyway, they have been sensational since his return)

NFL YTD 9-4 +4.2 units

2* 1-1 -0.3 units

1* 8-3 +4.5 units

I went 2-0 last week including an easy 2* win on the Broncos.

Monday:

1* Chargers +3

I went against Baltimore last week with the same premise as in this game.  Take a strong defense getting points against a strong offense.  Baltimore did hold Pittsburgh to 18 last week but that's a little misleading as the Steelers scored six times (all on FGs).   As good as the Ravens offense is, this is the worst defense in the Harbaugh era.  But the other Harbaugh has an excellent defense with the Chargers and are outstanding against the run.   The Chargers are flat out underrated.  They are 8-2 ATS and 7-3 SU.  Two of their three losses were to Pittsburgh and KC.   The offense has been very good and Justin Herbert is making no mistakes.   

Opinion only:

(Sunday) Bears +3 (they had GB beat last week; weird spot for Minnesota playing third straight road game)

YTD 11-13 -3.5 units

all plays 1* so far

My top play is in one of the great rivalries in all of college football: USC vs UCLA and it is just bizarre that this is now a Big 10 game.

2* USC -5

USC is the much better team even though the records don't really reflect it.  USC has a big time offense and switched QBs last week in putting up 28 on an excellent Nebraska defense.  UCLA was blown out by a mediocre Washington team in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (UCLA got TD with ten seconds left).  USC's five losses are by a combined 19 points!  They're due to kill somebody and who better than the cross town rival.   Motivation is probably on USC side although UCLA needs to win to be bowl eligible.   Lincoln Riley has to win to calm the alumni down and he has better talent on both sides of the ball. 

1* Nebraska ML -128

Nebraska's offense stinks but has gotten better since they brought in former Houston coach Dana Holgorsen as OC.  But the Huskers defense is top notch.  Wisconsin is drained after almost beating #1 Oregon at home in a game in which the offense was so bad that OC Longo was fired after the game.   I suspect Wisconsin is flat and that the offensive coaching staff is more focused on their resumes than anything else.   Home game for Nebraska.

Opinion only:
Kansas State -8 1/2  (coming off two ugly games and need a rebound)

NFL YTD 7-4 +1.2 units

2* 0-1 -2.3 units

1* 7-3 +3.5 units

2* Broncos -2

Denver comes home after two tough road games including a mere two point loss at KC.  The Broncos defense is one of the best in the NFL.  Atlanta has had a soft schedule lately with two games each against the Bucs and the Saints, each of which has bad defenses.  Bo Nix has thrown only two picks the last seven games and is a good game manager.  Denver has lost two in a row and may be more highly motivated in this non-conf game than the Falcons.

1* Steelers +3 1/2

Baltimore has an elite offense and Pittsburgh has an elite defense.  That alone is a formula to take the points with a better D but the Ravens defense is just terrible and Wilson has gotten Pittsburgh's offense clicking.  Ravens have given up over 25 in six of their ten games.

Opinion only:
Patriots +5

YTD 10-12 -3.4 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Georgia Southern -7 1/2

Georgia Southern has a good QB, is gaining 400+ yards per game in conference play and faces a weak Troy defense.  Troy is only 2-7 SU.

1* Illinois -2 1/2 (-120)

Michigan State has had bad QB play (Chiles has only eight CDs and 12 INTs).  Illinois is off the bye and has several quality home wins.

Opinion only:
Rutgers +6

YTD 9-11 -3.3 units

all plays 1* so far

I like four dogs this weekend and am using my top two as full plays.

1* West Virginia +5

Rationale here is simple: both teams off the bye and seem statistically evenly matched.  Value getting 5 points.  Besides, West Virginia just elected a senator who goes everywhere with his dog.

1* North Texas +5 1/2

Army is unbeaten but hasn't played anybody.  I like that North Texas is off the bye as it has two weeks to prepare for Army's unique triple option offense.  While Army has been dominant on defense, North Texas scores on everybody and has an elite QB.  SU upset possible

Opinions only:

South Florida +3

Rutgers +6 1/2

YTD: -$916.49

2023:+$267.92

Del Mar Race 1

$25 to win place and show on #1 Spycatcher (15-1 program odds)

Del Mar Race 6  Gr. 1 Breeders Cup Distaff

$15 to win place and show on #9 Awesome Result (4-1)

Del Mar Race 8  Gr. 1 Breeders Cup Classic

$70 to win place and show on  #1 Forever Young (6-1)

$35 to win place and show #12 Arthur's Ride (15-1)

$10 exacta box 1-12

$4 exacta box 1-11-12

$3 trifecta box 1-11-12

YTD: -$943.09

2023: +$267.92

Two from the Breeder's Cu undercard:

Del Mar Race 2

$15 to win place and show on #4 Twirling Queen (6-1 program odds)

Del Mark Race 3

$12 to win place and show on #9 In the Air Tonight (15-1)

YTD 9-9 -1.0 units

all plays 1* so far

2-0 last week with wins on USC and Colorado.  Two Big 10 dogs this week:

1* Illinois +3 (-120)

Illinois' only losses are to Penn State and Oregon and they get to come back home against a Minnesota team with a mediocre offense and off a misleading win over an overrated Maryland team.  Illini defense is good and the offense with QB Altmeyer is solid too.

1* Penn State +3 1/2

Ohio State barely got by Nebraska last week and the Buckeyes offense under Chip Kelly has regressed this year.  Penn State has tremendous offensive and defensive lines and dominated the line of scrimmage vs Wisconsin last week.  The backup QB looked very good after Allar went down.  Penn State has four rather easy games after this one and has a major chance to go unbeaten in the regular season if they get by Ohio State.  Take the points in a game with two great defenses

Opinion only:
USC -2 1/2