Asomugha

@AnthonyStarks

 Glad to see youre finding success on it. What do you look for in terms of movement? Is this to squeeze some %s in the long term or because u think the movement is indicative of an outcome? 

@Gainsford

Yeah absolutely, im not saying to bet on unders blindly, just on a personal level even if I like the "overs" in the sense that I think theres bad goaltending / really potent offenses like in the case of a team like Oilers, im probably not gonna touch the over anyway. To me its either I take the under or I stay away. 

These over/under lines are completely nuts. The default line is now 6.5. 5 years ago the normal line was 5.5 and in some matchups for teams with good goaltenders/defense like New York Rangers or Ducks you could see a 4.5 line.. 6.5 is the norm now. 5 years ago the 5.5 line was the 50-50 line at 1.90 - 1.90 or like 1.80 - 2.10, you could take the alternative 6.5 line and you woul get 70-30 or 75-25 odds of 3.10 - 1.35 / 3.30 - 1.30 for over 6.5..

Statistically we might still be getting a lot of overs, I dont know. But do people enjoy touching the over when the line is like this? 6.5 is just so insane.

Basically when you are betting on over 6.5, you are betting that BOTH teams will score 3 goals which averages out to BOTH teams to score in every period. The only other way that you can without both teams scoring 3 is if 1 team scores 5 GOALS. 

5 GOALS!!!!. AND even then you arent guaranteed to win as the team scoring 5 could win 5-0 or 5-1, in that case you still need the losing team to put up 2 goals..

When we had the 5.5 line as the default so many overs was won in this fashion: Score is 2-2 going into the 3rd period, one team scores within the first 15-17 minutes of the period to go up 3-2 and then other team pulls goalie and the game ends 4-2. This killed a lot of under 5.5s but this wont kill 6.5s. And, when u have a 2-1 score going into the 3rd you might have each team score a goal in the period, or the trailing team scoring 2 goals in the 3rd, again, this gives us a 3-2 score line and then we will again see the goalie pulled to put a 5.5 line in jeopardy - but not a 6.5 line.

TL;DR: A 6.5 line is completely nuts. It means u need BOTH teams to score 3 goals each or 1 team to score 5+ (and even then its not guaranteed). A team scoring 4 goals doesnt do anything, u still need the other team to score 3. For me, if I hate the goaltenders on two teams and I love the offenses im still not going to bet over. The line is insane.

For the PGA Championship what was the spread/line for "How many strokes will the winner use over/under xxx" before this major started? Does anyone know? 

Im not gonna show you the breakdown for how much you should bet on each golfer, thats up to yourself, but I will give an example of what I've done. The principle is this though: If a golfer youve bet on finishes in top 20, you have to make sure youre making money. You should be profiting from successfully predicting a golfer in top 20, because thats not easy. The only exception to this is if youre betting a top favorite because then the value of top 20 is so small its barely worth it. In that case you can either scrap the top 20 bet, but id prefer to keep the top 20 bet and just accept that you will lose a bit of money if he only gets into top 20 and falls short of top 10. 

Anyways so lets take a look at the example for what I've done on one of the golfers

- Paul Casey Top 20 $575 @ +200

- Paul Casey Top 10 $300 @ +450

- Paul Casey To Win Outright $125 @ +5500

If Casey finishes in Top 20 I will win 1725, I bet a total of $1000 on him so thats a profit of $725

If Casey finishes in Top 10 I will win 1650, since Casey finishing in Top 10 also means I will win the top 20 bet, so thats 1725 + 1650 - the $1000 I bet on Casey in total. So thats a profit of 2375.

If Casey wins outright I will win $7000. + the Top 10 and Top 20 bet, that gives us a total profit of $9375.

So as you can see, no matter what if Casey finishes in Top 20 we will make a good profit. Top 10 or an outright win will just up that. And you could add top 5 to this mix, thats not bad, Ive just chosen not to this major. The good thing is you could theoretically have all your players finish in Top 20 or top 10 if you bet on 7 players, unrealistic but possible. And if someone makes a run for the title then youre really great off. I wouldnt recommend betting on more than 8 golfers for this Outright/Top 10/Top 20 format. If you have a lot of dogs you can bet on 8 golfers id say. But if all your picks are mostly golfers among the favorites to win (+4000 or lower) then id not go with more than 4 or 5. 

And I apologize for the d in OP, it wouldnt let me post a topic for so many hours so I just kept trying different things, so it had to be a comment instead when I finally got some topic created.

Best of luck this Open. Think we will see some amazing golf. 

I think this forum is pretty good, people are good at spotting golfers that will pop off. But the biggest mistake I see people make is that they only bet on a golfer to win outright, rather than him placing in top 20 top 10 and potentially top 5. So youre not sugercoating it in the value that it should have. Predicting an outright winner is always tough, only 1 can win obviously and the field is huge, but if you can successfully predict golfers to perform better than odds indicate, then you should be getting the most value out of making that prediction. Here are my bets and how I go about it. All odds are from bet365. You can probably find higher odds elsewhere I just like it for its simplicity and its not complicated and payouts are easy. But yeah, you can probably get higher odds on some of these if u wanna squeeze out some more value. I like to do: Outright winner, Top 10 and Top 20. Sometimes Top 5. But I have scrapped that for this open. Top 10 and Top 20 gives a lot of cushioning and top 5 can easily fade away on the last 3 holes.

The Open Championship 2019 - Outright Winner

- Patrick Cantlay @ +2800

- Matt Kuchar @ +3500

- Bryson DeChambeau @ +4000

- Paul Casey @ +5500

- Bernd Wiesberger @ +6600

- Erik van Rooyen @ +11000

- Brandt Snedeker @ +12500

- Russell Knox @ +17500

The Open Championship 2019 - Top 10

- Patrick Cantlay @ +250

- Matt Kuchar @ +275

- Bryson DeChambeau @ +350

- Paul Casey @ +450

- Bernd Wiesberger @ +500

- Erik van Rooyen @ +800

- Brandt Snedeker @ +1000

- Russell Knox @ +1600

The Open Championship 2019 - Top 20

- Patrick Cantlay @ +120

- Matt Kuchar @ +137

- Bryson DeChambeau @ +162

- Paul Casey @ +200

- Bernd Wiesberger @ +250

- Erik van Rooyen @ +350

- Brandt Snedeker @ +550

- Russell Knox @ +700

d

Why cant I create a thread on this golf forum? It just takes me to a blank page when I make a thread. Odd.

who u got? 

stomp

Great, I just took 1 hour of the day to write something only to see it deleted, so I will rewrite this again but make it short, fuck it.

The state of NFL? I think its terrible for a lot of reasons, refs too much impact on the game, too much of a show, NFL seems like hollywood with the acting and the virtue signalling in the form of kneeling. Barely any good Ds in the league, in the past good Ds didnt allow many yards per game and they didnt give up alot of points good Ds. I just miss good ds. and i hate the direction the league is going in. Therefore its also ironic that iggles overcome pats by winning in a shoot out and run and gun rather than by stepping up defensively, pats blew it themselves with missed FGs etc. 

Philadelphia as a city is a desert in the way that they havent experienced succes for so long, i love to look at that when i am to cap over/under regular season wins and look at which team can turn this tendency around the fastest, if u look at sixers, phillies, flyers, they all suck major dick, bottom of the league, doesnt make playoffs for many years and when they do its a first-round boot and same for eagles prior to this season. Its interesting. This win is food for the table for the city which by the way is 5 times as populous as pittsburgh. Tendencies like this are important. You cant have 4 teams struggling thats just bad.

Thoughts?

Welp. Glad I didnt lay harder. Gratz to wozniacki!