What one piece of advice do you give to someone new to handicapping/gambling?

@unplucked_gem

You are a weird dude 

Your point is that I don't actually bet my posted plays, even though my posted plays have won for seven posted seasons in a row? What kind of an idiot posts winning plays and doesn't bet them?

And your assertion is based on what? Intuition?  Where did you come up with 5k to animal shelters? It is much much more than that. You were proving once again how humans deserve so much less than dogs. 

Anyway, if you would like to wager on any of your assertions, with the proceeds going to an animal shelter, I'm happy to accommodate. 

Let me know pal. Otherwise like I said, buzz off with your weird stalker behavior. 

Notwithstanding your lame digs, let's do it and be done with it.

I'll await your PM.

We do it in public, not dms.

Give me an outline of what the parameters are for this idiocy.

The only requirement I have is that the wager is a minimum of 3k and I name the rescue organization. @niallharbison on Twitter.

and a strict diet of vanzack nfl may help.. but the new rules scare me this year        

Don't start

@unplucked_gem

Crickets. Of course. Same old covers story as old as time.

Set realistic goals, 55% on -110 bets. Anyone who says they hit 60% or better longterm immediately never listen to that person again

Track your bets, win or lose looking back at previous results you can start to see what youre good and bad at

Stick to 1 sport to start, and even further get really into just 2 or 3 teams and just bet them. When youre 100% into just a few teams you can find some real good bets other than just side and total. Player prop bets can be really good to you if youre zoned in on a few teams. If you have a favorite team and think theyre gonna win every game then youre being a fan, not a bettor

Bet 5% of bankroll per play to start, dont think youre gonna turn $100 into 20k in a month. Youre looking to figure out how to win long term, not "bust the bookie cuz youre so bad ass"

@Carpinteria

  Good points/insight overall!

But I think 5% of BR may be a tad high for a newbie, don't you think?  Most recommendations that I've seen (or heard) online seem to be in the 2 or 3 % range....... or maybe that was a typo?

@vanzack

 Yeah, you wish.  Soon enough my guy.

Its time for unplucked gem to be broken off.

The terms:

Confirmation that personal wagers equate to posted plays as listed below in exchange for $1,000 to your charity noted previously by posting your tickets "publicly".

I am altering the terms in the sense that the whole season is cumbersome for both parties and these should be sufficient to prove either side's position.  However, if thats a problem, i'll pull the whole season for the $3,000 you specified.

Potential off ramp of you choose- "sometimes my personal plays are not exaclty aligned with posted plays."

Week 18

* Bills -2.75 (3 units)

* Bears +3 (3 units)

* Titans +3.5 (2.5 units)

* Giants +5.5 (2.5 units)

* Cards +3 (2.5 units)

* Raiders -3 (2 units)

* Bengals -7 (2 units)

* Texans -2 (2 units)

December 31

* Bucs -2.5 (3 units)

* Dolphins +3.25 (3 units)

* Texans -4 (3 units)

* Giants +6 (2 units)

* Cards +12 (2 units)

December 30

* Cowboys -5.5 (3 units)

DEC 23

* Cowboys +2 (4 units)

* Vikings +2.75 (4 units)

* Texans +3 (3 units)

* Bucs +1 (2 units)

* Bears -4 (2 units)

December 21

* Saints +3.5 (2 units)

December 16

* Bills -2 (4 units)

* Ravens -3.25 (4 units)

* Bears +3 (3 units)

* Saints -5.5 (2 units)

* Panthers +2.75 (2 units)

* Packers -3.25 (2 units)

All taken from your threads.  

@JimmyGape

 Shouldn't you be on a bridge or something

If you haven't spent time on sports for i'd say at least 15 years, learn the game, the style, then dive in. DISCIPLINE is the most important thing.

No but Ive been banging ogrgeous women in Brazil for 6 months. Its been an epic trip, one that people like you can only dream of.

Yeah. I asked Sydney Sweeney out on a date, then gave her a list of acceptable restaurants she could take me to and what positions I would accept when I F*** her. 

Pass.

The funny thing is how different our stratospheres are. In any week, I can produce a 4 figure "ticket" on any team in any NFL game. I buy and sell lines all week dope. That means if you seek one ticket on one side of any NFL game I can give it to you. 

I have a feeling you are the type of guy who wouldn't pay in the end, who wouldn't accept an escrow, who wouldn't accept my books as proof, who if it was raining on a Tuesday would say that the bet is off. My time is way too valuable for people like you. So troll on, have at it, we have about 5 months ahead of you where you can pop in my thread every week and tell me how I'm a fraud, and all I'll keep doing is winning year after year and making stacks. You realize how dumb you are right?

I will go ahead and make a 3K donation on your behalf, and in your memory. The dogs won't suffer because you're an idiot. 

Now, like I said earlier, buzz off Junior. 

That's my guy. 

JimmyG sticking it to a whole country!

@unplucked_gem

After realizing what a nut job you must be in real life.... I'm curious...

What is your hypothesis? That I post winning plays year after year, but don't bet them? Based on what exactly ?That's the hill you are willing to die on?

So weird. Might be time for you to look inwards.

Add to that...

I have done this for 25 years never asked anyone for a penny, have turned down too many opportunities to tout to count, and only promote giving to animal charities?

That all strikes you as suspicious enough to call me out and die on this hill? You are a clown.

And by the lack of response....  I assume the troll has crawled back under his bridge.

End of story.

Well if we're measuring vacations: a week in Vegas to reg for the contests with golf a Pauite, 36 days in Bali with golf at New Kuta, Handara, and Bali National (and while not an orgy banged Balinese).  Finally ending with a week in Whistler with golf at Whistler GC, Chateau Fairmont, Nichlaus North, and Big Sky.  But ring me for the next trip ;)

Well here's what I know.  You called me out last year, I showed my slip.  I call you out this year and you point to "seven years of winning plays", "profits", but won't show.

My hypothesis is simple.  It's easy for people like you and others on covers to have "winning seasons" by offsetting losses with increased unit sizes but don't actually play what you post in full.

Then take something like say the SuperContest that's fixed and tracked and you got your doors blown off only offering "I play them differently" and should probably change my strategy.

Finally you go on and on about percentages, price, value, key numbers and again how many moneyline plays did you post?  So you have model upon model to tell you when you have an advantage over the book but take points?

Maybe the inward reflection is your illusions of intellectual granger that I'll call every time. 

Good luck on the season, play a few ML and maybe you'll crack 100U

Also you can forward your $1,000 donation to:

Vizsla Club of Northern California

Maybe we could actually get you to post that ticket.

"My time is too valuable" but I'll troll everyone on covers endlessly.

 Also how exactly would one dispute a ticket of Bills in week 18 for 3 units.  

I think the sadest part here is rather than say, "I might be wrong" you double down on the personal insults which iis fine.