CD Newsletter Week 10

Jackson the favorite to win again...

Wilson 50 th.....

Talk to me about today

Not yesterday.....

He is better than ever..

last week the Broncos dared him

to throw   7 or 8  in the box

he passed them blind..200 yards at halftime..

13 ppg in their previous 5 games Denvers defense...

Ravens had 41 in 3 quarters....

a little somethin somethin.......

NFL rookie quarterbacks are 11-0 ATS this season as favorites

This week: Commanders -3 (vs. Steelers) Bears -6 (vs. Patriots) 

if anything....

I'd lean Wash here

Unlikely I'd play the Bears. Especially with the line move off the open....and their injuries on both sides of the ball....and their OC & HC suck ass.....and the players are starting to bus toss the HC........ And the old bat that owns the team.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCFW6x9JhM4/?igsh=NWRuZDlzNnBtejRz

The Chargers defense are only the 6th unit since 1990 to not allow more than 20 points thru the first 8 games. In a cruel twist of fate, none of the other 5 teams made it to the Super Bowl and 2 of them didn't even make the playoffs. But defense wins championships, right?

In more important news Trevor Lawrence is likely done for the season. Incredible that the Jaguars are already at the "clean house" stage after back to back winning seasons. There is a rift between GM Baalke and HC Pederson and another one between TL16 and Pederson. Just like in Philly, Dougie is done in spite of his prior success. 

Okay you bitchass bitch, I’m riding the over 52.5 on your say so.  Don’t let me down!!!

Off a 2-0 last week in pro

Here is what I am on tonight:

Cincinnati +6

Thursday Night Potluck Under Jamborre continues today...this is a blind bet with no thought, rhyme or reason so will be looked at all on it's own....

YTD since week 4 NFL: 2-4

Bengals/Ravens Under 53

Good luck gentleladies

@iConsciousness

 Damn, we are close...hope your friends house is ok...our friends lost a 3 million dollar home....the guy had a model train collection worth well over a million dollars all up in flames...ya know, those big engine collecting type deals....a fanatic, but quite cool....this fire seems to have taken off into Santa Paula and is just burning like a mutha....hopefully it doesn't end up like the Thomas fire....smokey as all get up...went to my folks place today and could barely breathe....we need flame resistant homes out here as this is getting out of hand...

The Ravens secondary reminds me of randomly placed Bocci balls. Like a guy with turrets syndrome designed their zone defense 

31-37-5 (-3.43) YTD

I've had a weird betting season. 

12-12-3(-0.39) weeks 1 through 4.

0-5-1(-4.88) woodshed in week 5.

Took week 6 off.

8-9(-0.30) week 7.

11-11-1(+2.14) weeks 8 and 9.

I had to go through a lot of the old newsletter threads and betting history to track what I posted. Noticed a certain poster who's feedback has been missed the last 2 weeks. Hugh, come back whenever you're ready. 

2H :

Ravens / Bengals Over 27  ( 25u )

@BR

Burrow was very slippery  last night....

Zone coverages were 

The best chance for having a game that's "a tale of two halves" is Pittsburgh at Washington. By the PR's:

Pitt 1H #22 -1.8, Wash 1H #3 +6.9

Pitt 2H #1 +8.7, Wash 2H #16 -0.5

Do with this info what you want. 

When it comes to strength of schedule, Pitt and Washington are nearly identical. #26 and #27

If you thought that the gmen are laying too many points vs the Panthers, just know that the Panthers are ranked dead last in any metric/ranking you look at. On top of it, their SOS is #32, the easiest schedule to date.

Do we think that they're feeling cheeky after their win against the Saints? Even if they are, not enough for me to back them. Even though those points at home look tempting 

Going for the 2 is a no brainer. TB on Monday elected not to. Loss.

Your mindset should be if we don't go for it, we lose (especially v elite teams).

Ah, the going for 2 talk to end the game....

Very risky indeed and you look like a god when you convert and a putz when you don't....I have mixed reviews on this and it's the same scenario in basketball when a team is down by 2 at the end of the game...do they go for a two point shot to force overtime or try to hit a 3 for the win...tough call...

Situational settings have to be calculated....like, were you down the whole game and made a comeback, are you at home or visiting, is your team gassed, playoff implications or not....variables play a role in the decision making....obviously the Bengals rolled the dice and lost and even if they do convert that and go ahead by 1 there was nothing saying that the Ravens don't go down the field and kick a field to win anyway even with that little time left...

The conundrum of end of game antics

@ABooksNightmare

 Gambling on a flip. Lose the flip, high,high probability you lose. Especially v teams like KC and Balt. These teams will go down the field and get TDs. FGs are never on their minds.

As for hoops, it's not first to score and win.

BTW, that play call was fucking atrocious. 

But the Bengals defense was reeling...giving up the 60 yard TD or whatever the heel it was based on at least 2 really bad tackles was embarrassing for not just Cincinnati, but all of Ohio...