[Quote: Don't believe that futures excuse. They balance them during the season and don't let any outcome be devasting. Books already won with futures, 30 teams have been eliminated, probably a lot of money on bills, ravens, eagles, cowboys, lions earlier in the year, put them all together and it should outweigh any outcome. Not to mention the chiefs futures, which are probably pretty high from before the season. add chiefs futures to all the money wagered on them now and there is no way sf is a major liability. They are setting a trap and taking a position on sf. the public is getting more experienced so they have to make up a reason why they are not moving the line[/Quote]
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[Quote: Don't believe that futures excuse. They balance them during the season and don't let any outcome be devasting. Books already won with futures, 30 teams have been eliminated, probably a lot of money on bills, ravens, eagles, cowboys, lions earlier in the year, put them all together and it should outweigh any outcome. Not to mention the chiefs futures, which are probably pretty high from before the season. add chiefs futures to all the money wagered on them now and there is no way sf is a major liability. They are setting a trap and taking a position on sf. the public is getting more experienced so they have to make up a reason why they are not moving the line[/Quote]
Excellent analysis, agree with much of what you said. We luv to "measure" things these days, everything and much of it for good reason. But certain things cannot be measured, you can't put a number on a great player rising to the occasion, you just know it's more than likely going to happen. Same thing with when one player may fail, make a key mistake, we just know it happens, part of the game. Football isn't science, it's a game between men who are imperfect, in the NFL, talented players but still imperfect. In football greatness to me is defined by what you accomplish in the big game and within that, in the 4th quarter. There's clearly one player this game who's proven that beyond a shadow of doubt, he's that guy, and his teammates know it and feed off it, and that you cannot measure.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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Excellent analysis, agree with much of what you said. We luv to "measure" things these days, everything and much of it for good reason. But certain things cannot be measured, you can't put a number on a great player rising to the occasion, you just know it's more than likely going to happen. Same thing with when one player may fail, make a key mistake, we just know it happens, part of the game. Football isn't science, it's a game between men who are imperfect, in the NFL, talented players but still imperfect. In football greatness to me is defined by what you accomplish in the big game and within that, in the 4th quarter. There's clearly one player this game who's proven that beyond a shadow of doubt, he's that guy, and his teammates know it and feed off it, and that you cannot measure.
So true, Mahomes is that guy, but aren't you concerned by what appears a need of the books for a SF win??? Unless you buy into the notion of 50/50 balance and all sharp money is on SF (I don't)? I see another narrative happening here.
The bookmakers knew that by opening the line at KC +2.5 they would get hit with a flood of Chiefs' money (from recency bias). It happened and yet they did not move the line. I see this as a case of the bookmakers taking a stand because deep down they feel it is the 49ers time to shine (for whatever analytic reason).
If Spags puts 8 and 9 in the box (like he did in Baltimore in the cold), in perfect playing conditions, versus the 49ers, his D will be lit up like Christmas trees.
Viva Cristo Rey!!!
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@mrusso
So true, Mahomes is that guy, but aren't you concerned by what appears a need of the books for a SF win??? Unless you buy into the notion of 50/50 balance and all sharp money is on SF (I don't)? I see another narrative happening here.
The bookmakers knew that by opening the line at KC +2.5 they would get hit with a flood of Chiefs' money (from recency bias). It happened and yet they did not move the line. I see this as a case of the bookmakers taking a stand because deep down they feel it is the 49ers time to shine (for whatever analytic reason).
If Spags puts 8 and 9 in the box (like he did in Baltimore in the cold), in perfect playing conditions, versus the 49ers, his D will be lit up like Christmas trees.
This will be the absolute telling factor. If San Fran game plans to put up 40 and dares KC to keep up, they'll prevail. If they try and get cute with keeping Mahomes off the field and winning the clock, it'll be par for the course. We should know early.
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Point #6
This will be the absolute telling factor. If San Fran game plans to put up 40 and dares KC to keep up, they'll prevail. If they try and get cute with keeping Mahomes off the field and winning the clock, it'll be par for the course. We should know early.
1. Mahomes "You must account for his elevated play when it matters most."
Mahomes has a passer rating of 79.7 with 738 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 3 games in Super Bowls in his career.
2. The KC run defense "Models and surface level metrics say the Chiefs run defense is terrible. Contextually with Bolton in there...not too shabby."
Bolton played the game where Raiders threw it only 9 times and Zamir White ran for 145 yards. Even against Lions #2 ranked rushing defense, CMC ran for 90 yards and averaged 4.5 ypc.
3. Talanoa Hufunga "They have been run over in both playoff games. So much of the focus has been allegedly how bad the KC run defense is, but I would make a strong argument that contextually, SF has the much worse run defense."
Agreed but rewatching Lions game it seemed effort was a big issue for them getting gashed which has been a big point of emphasis the last two weeks. I feel Chase Young is going to have a monster game.
7. Intangibles "There was a moment with Mahomes and Purdy on stage together and Purdy looked like he was shitting his pants hearing the crowd boo Mahomes. He couldn't even look at him."
I think you're buying into a still image of that encounter and pushing the narrative they had connected to it. Brock was not "shitting his pants", Mahomes looked more comfortable but Brock looked fine. He looked more like he didn't know what do being between two people talking to each other so he decided to just stare at a point.
The rest I agree with, great breakdown. Hopefully it's a great game!
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@andarmac99
1. Mahomes "You must account for his elevated play when it matters most."
Mahomes has a passer rating of 79.7 with 738 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 3 games in Super Bowls in his career.
2. The KC run defense "Models and surface level metrics say the Chiefs run defense is terrible. Contextually with Bolton in there...not too shabby."
Bolton played the game where Raiders threw it only 9 times and Zamir White ran for 145 yards. Even against Lions #2 ranked rushing defense, CMC ran for 90 yards and averaged 4.5 ypc.
3. Talanoa Hufunga "They have been run over in both playoff games. So much of the focus has been allegedly how bad the KC run defense is, but I would make a strong argument that contextually, SF has the much worse run defense."
Agreed but rewatching Lions game it seemed effort was a big issue for them getting gashed which has been a big point of emphasis the last two weeks. I feel Chase Young is going to have a monster game.
7. Intangibles "There was a moment with Mahomes and Purdy on stage together and Purdy looked like he was shitting his pants hearing the crowd boo Mahomes. He couldn't even look at him."
I think you're buying into a still image of that encounter and pushing the narrative they had connected to it. Brock was not "shitting his pants", Mahomes looked more comfortable but Brock looked fine. He looked more like he didn't know what do being between two people talking to each other so he decided to just stare at a point.
The rest I agree with, great breakdown. Hopefully it's a great game!
Great to see you on here bro. Good shit as always. Totally agree on Hufanga. You can draw a straight line between when he got hurt and the Niners defensive struggles. I disagree on the chiefs run D and I think that is an area where they¡¯ll get exposed today. If the Ravens would¡¯ve stuck with the run instead of panicking, they¡¯d be playing today. Respect your thoughts as always.
I¡¯m going to try and write up my thoughts on the game in a little bit. Glad to see you around, man.
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Andy,
Great to see you on here bro. Good shit as always. Totally agree on Hufanga. You can draw a straight line between when he got hurt and the Niners defensive struggles. I disagree on the chiefs run D and I think that is an area where they¡¯ll get exposed today. If the Ravens would¡¯ve stuck with the run instead of panicking, they¡¯d be playing today. Respect your thoughts as always.
I¡¯m going to try and write up my thoughts on the game in a little bit. Glad to see you around, man.
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99: To sum up: I think the modelers and stats guys are missing some key pieces of context. They aren¡¯t truly digging deep enough. Statistics and models don¡¯t allow them to. They are betting against Mahomes and KC as underdogs yet AGAIN. It is true definition of insanity. I have no argument regarding your analysis of the game from the KC perspective. Lots of great points. My issue is that based on everything I have read and watched, including Covers, very few are ¡°insane¡± enough to be on the Niners. From Billy Walters, to Big Head bets, to Collin Cowherd, to Michael Lombardi to Bill Simmons to the entire CBS website football pundits (all 7 of them) to 75% of ESPN analysts (something like 45-15), not to mention Don Juan on Covers and Alien 1, Wizerguy, yourself, etc are all on the Chiefs!!! So who, in their right mind, is insane enough to be betting the Niners?! And if the answer is nobody, then why isn¡¯t this line dropping?!
Me. I am on the Niners.
Brady lost 3 super bowls. Mahomes has already lost one.
GTFO of here with this Mahomes cant lose stuff. He lost to the Raiders at home a few weeks ago.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99: To sum up: I think the modelers and stats guys are missing some key pieces of context. They aren¡¯t truly digging deep enough. Statistics and models don¡¯t allow them to. They are betting against Mahomes and KC as underdogs yet AGAIN. It is true definition of insanity. I have no argument regarding your analysis of the game from the KC perspective. Lots of great points. My issue is that based on everything I have read and watched, including Covers, very few are ¡°insane¡± enough to be on the Niners. From Billy Walters, to Big Head bets, to Collin Cowherd, to Michael Lombardi to Bill Simmons to the entire CBS website football pundits (all 7 of them) to 75% of ESPN analysts (something like 45-15), not to mention Don Juan on Covers and Alien 1, Wizerguy, yourself, etc are all on the Chiefs!!! So who, in their right mind, is insane enough to be betting the Niners?! And if the answer is nobody, then why isn¡¯t this line dropping?!
Me. I am on the Niners.
Brady lost 3 super bowls. Mahomes has already lost one.
GTFO of here with this Mahomes cant lose stuff. He lost to the Raiders at home a few weeks ago.
I think San Fran comes out with something to prove today. It¡¯s now or never for this group. They¡¯ve responded every time their backs have been against the wall this year. Could win big if defense shows back up.
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I think San Fran comes out with something to prove today. It¡¯s now or never for this group. They¡¯ve responded every time their backs have been against the wall this year. Could win big if defense shows back up.
Andy, Great to see you on here bro. Good shit as always. Totally agree on Hufanga. You can draw a straight line between when he got hurt and the Niners defensive struggles. I disagree on the chiefs run D and I think that is an area where they¡¯ll get exposed today. If the Ravens would¡¯ve stuck with the run instead of panicking, they¡¯d be playing today. Respect your thoughts as always. I¡¯m going to try and write up my thoughts on the game in a little bit. Glad to see you around, man.
Andy as in sbr Andy?
I'm trying to figure out who's bill.
Anyways, this thread was a good read all weeks. I'm enjoying it as it is loaded with valuable information.
May we all enjoy the game and see you guys around.
X_____________________________
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
Andy, Great to see you on here bro. Good shit as always. Totally agree on Hufanga. You can draw a straight line between when he got hurt and the Niners defensive struggles. I disagree on the chiefs run D and I think that is an area where they¡¯ll get exposed today. If the Ravens would¡¯ve stuck with the run instead of panicking, they¡¯d be playing today. Respect your thoughts as always. I¡¯m going to try and write up my thoughts on the game in a little bit. Glad to see you around, man.
Andy as in sbr Andy?
I'm trying to figure out who's bill.
Anyways, this thread was a good read all weeks. I'm enjoying it as it is loaded with valuable information.
May we all enjoy the game and see you guys around.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Here we go again. The modelers and stats folks are betting against Mahomes and overweighting SF on paper. They are overweighting that SF is built to beat the crap out of bad teams. The league was down this year. I said it in my writeup fading Baltimore. SF beating the crap out of bad teams and the middle class in a down league makes them look incredible in the metrics. I don't buy it. Dominate wins against the Cowboys and Eagles look great on paper but were those teams actually any good? Something I fundamentally believe in the modern age of betting is to dig beneath the surface stats and matchups. Everyone is using the same team level data and matchup metrics. Everyone is making the same models using the same stats. DVOA, EPA, CPOE, etc. I'll even use a few of them below. But the real edge IMO in the modern market comes from peeling back the onion and examining context. Not just what a model spits out. Here are a few contextual factors that I believe aren't being fully accounted for: 1. Mahomes I don't think the models are fully factoring in Mahomes. But how can that be, andarmac99? There has truly never been a QB like this. He has consistently elevated his play in the biggest moments and situations. He's almost immune to pressure. He's now 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. His EPA is consistently BETTER when he's an underdog. It's BETTER when he's trailing. It's BETTER when he is away from home. No player has ever elevated his play, and his teams' play in these situations better than him. The models using base level, and even weighted season stats on the KC offense with Mahomes are severely underweighting KC. You must account for his elevated play when it matters most.
You¡¯re not presenting anything different than anybody else has throughout the week.
it¡¯s a 1 off game. Cap any angle you want. I¡¯ll gladly just side with Vegas and the money. If chiefs win I¡¯m happy anyways because I¡¯m a chiefs and Mahomes fan.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Here we go again. The modelers and stats folks are betting against Mahomes and overweighting SF on paper. They are overweighting that SF is built to beat the crap out of bad teams. The league was down this year. I said it in my writeup fading Baltimore. SF beating the crap out of bad teams and the middle class in a down league makes them look incredible in the metrics. I don't buy it. Dominate wins against the Cowboys and Eagles look great on paper but were those teams actually any good? Something I fundamentally believe in the modern age of betting is to dig beneath the surface stats and matchups. Everyone is using the same team level data and matchup metrics. Everyone is making the same models using the same stats. DVOA, EPA, CPOE, etc. I'll even use a few of them below. But the real edge IMO in the modern market comes from peeling back the onion and examining context. Not just what a model spits out. Here are a few contextual factors that I believe aren't being fully accounted for: 1. Mahomes I don't think the models are fully factoring in Mahomes. But how can that be, andarmac99? There has truly never been a QB like this. He has consistently elevated his play in the biggest moments and situations. He's almost immune to pressure. He's now 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. His EPA is consistently BETTER when he's an underdog. It's BETTER when he's trailing. It's BETTER when he is away from home. No player has ever elevated his play, and his teams' play in these situations better than him. The models using base level, and even weighted season stats on the KC offense with Mahomes are severely underweighting KC. You must account for his elevated play when it matters most.
You¡¯re not presenting anything different than anybody else has throughout the week.
it¡¯s a 1 off game. Cap any angle you want. I¡¯ll gladly just side with Vegas and the money. If chiefs win I¡¯m happy anyways because I¡¯m a chiefs and Mahomes fan.
Congrats Andy. I had already wagered on KC, but always look to see what YOUR opinion is come Superbowl time. Your write-up forced me to add another 50%. KC +2. It looked a little bleak mid 2nd quarter but the Chiefs clawed their way back. As it turned out, either team could have won depending on so many [ if this happened OR if this didn't happen] Bottom line.... Chiefs won. Thanx Bud. See you next year.
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Congrats Andy. I had already wagered on KC, but always look to see what YOUR opinion is come Superbowl time. Your write-up forced me to add another 50%. KC +2. It looked a little bleak mid 2nd quarter but the Chiefs clawed their way back. As it turned out, either team could have won depending on so many [ if this happened OR if this didn't happen] Bottom line.... Chiefs won. Thanx Bud. See you next year.
Just seeing this now¡.great game¡..could have gone either way a dozen times¡¡
In the end, that Niners D was the difference. They have been BAD last 6-7 weeks. Only Sam Howell and the Redskins did NOT shred this defense last couple months. Chiefs piled up 460 yards despite having 15 yards in the first Q.
Despite all that, Niners played well. Hung in there. Made some good adjustments because they didn¡¯t do anything for a good 30 minute period (mostly 2nd and 3rd Q) and then when KC went up 13-10 I said this is a blowout and SF fought for their lives!!
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Great stuff, Andy¡¡
Just seeing this now¡.great game¡..could have gone either way a dozen times¡¡
In the end, that Niners D was the difference. They have been BAD last 6-7 weeks. Only Sam Howell and the Redskins did NOT shred this defense last couple months. Chiefs piled up 460 yards despite having 15 yards in the first Q.
Despite all that, Niners played well. Hung in there. Made some good adjustments because they didn¡¯t do anything for a good 30 minute period (mostly 2nd and 3rd Q) and then when KC went up 13-10 I said this is a blowout and SF fought for their lives!!
Chiefs defense stepped it up as the game wore on. Mike Pennel once again the unsung hero on the dline like that super bowl 4 years ago he helped the run defense. And Nick Bolton too as you mentioned. The key stat is 3rd down defense it has been one of their calling cards this season. The blitz on 3rd downs was effective enough to get the ball out of Purdy's hands quick and disrupt . Didn't really have an answer for it..
Good job
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Chiefs defense stepped it up as the game wore on. Mike Pennel once again the unsung hero on the dline like that super bowl 4 years ago he helped the run defense. And Nick Bolton too as you mentioned. The key stat is 3rd down defense it has been one of their calling cards this season. The blitz on 3rd downs was effective enough to get the ball out of Purdy's hands quick and disrupt . Didn't really have an answer for it..
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I had already wagered on KC, but always look to see what YOUR opinion is come Superbowl time. Your write-up forced me to add another 50%. KC +2. It looked a little bleak mid 2nd quarter but the Chiefs clawed their way back. As it turned out, either team could have won depending on so many [ if this happened OR if this didn't happen] Bottom line.... 
Chiefs won. Thanx Bud. See you next year. 
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