Random thoughts week 16

When I was a young guy the season was 14 weeks.   It¡¯s funny to think that we¡¯re in week 16, with 2 more weeks to follow¡­..but here we are¡­..

Rodgers career record vs Stafford is 13-4 but with different teams obviously 

Will Rodgers break the sacked record this season?  career sacked leaders

570 Tarkenton

565 Brady 

563 Rodgers

Stafford¡¯s career longest streak without an INT was 4 games, until he stretched it to 5 in the last game vs 49ers.    Will he stretch it to 6 games vs the Jets, who have a puny total of 4 INTs this season?

there are 4 teams who haven¡¯t scored 30 points once this season

Giants

Pats

Raiders

Chiefs

 I would love to fade the bears once again as they continue their death march to the end of the season, but I don¡¯t trust Goff, especially when playing outdoors   Career record at soldier field is

1-3 W-L

58% completions

4 TD

6 INT 

49ers have had injury issues but I have a hunch they will beat the fins even if Frank Gore has to suit up to play at RB

I¡¯ve lost billions wagering on teams who needed to win to stay alive for the playoffs, or who needed to win to improve their playoff seeding.   Not gonna do that anymore¡­..

Joe Public has been winning so far this season.    Favs currently lead dogs 115-103-7 (according to Covers) and Overs lead Unders 116-105.     I expect the tables will turn in the last 3 weeks.    I wonder if one might be able to pick up a few units by betting all dogs and Unders in the last 47 games?    Will check back after the season to see what happens

@Biscuit

 "I’ve lost billions wagering on teams who needed to win to stay alive for the playoffs, or who needed to win to improve their playoff seeding.   Not gonna do that anymore….."

Smart man. As if "needing to win" actually helped a team win. If anything, it adds pressure and nerves to a team. A team that if they were better, wouldn't be in such a position. 

@Biscuit

 Do not know how current the numbers are.  But this was from a couple of years ago:

Teams that need to win in the final 2 weeks of a season versus teams out of the playoffs have gone 57-95 (37% ATS) in my database. Teams needing to win have their lines artificially inflated because of the perception that teams that need it the most should win and cover.

Also this:

But there¡¯s an old adage that I like to go by in these situations: if a team is in a must-win game in the regular season, it¡¯s probably not very good.

Yeah you guys know what I¡¯m talking about 

my favorite example was the 21-22 season.   Last game, colts win and they¡¯re in the playoffs.    They play @ jags who only have 2 wins, but the colts never win in Florida.   I mean it was like 8 or 9 years since they had won as visitor, but they were installed as 15 point favorite, just because they needed the win.    Jags won 26-15 I think.   I made a packet on that game lol

dogs are barking at this time of the year¡­¡­

I¡¯m sitting here working, with the rebroadcast of last nights game on in the background.    They showed a split screen with both coaches, and I just realized they are both ex bears QBs.    It¡¯s kind of funny, in a way, bears QBs find more success after they¡¯re done playing than when they¡¯re with the team

I like jaxon smith njigba over 62¡¯ rec yards -115 DK 

JSN receiving yards in last 7 games

83

82

74

77

110

180

69

vikings D ranks #31 allowing 24.1 completions/game 

Good stuff, buddy. Good luck this week. 

@begginerboy

 GL with your plays 

Dogs looking good to me this week. I like Houston to win outright, Pats +14, Giants +9, and small dog SF. I do like the Bears too but just cant pull the trigger on it and I think Seattle is live too

Good stuff 

@Biscuit

 FYI Chiefs scored 30 vs TB (but that was OT)

Nice catch!    I looked it up, chiefs actually scored 30 twice, vs Bucs and @panthers.    I got that nugget of info off of a fan forum, it was presented with a nice graphic so I thought it must be true lol.     Just a reminder that we can¡¯t believe everything we read.

the other info I presented was taken from more legit stat sites.

thanks for the correction. 

I got Chiefs +1¡¯ early before the line changed so hopefully we both cash that one.    I sorta like the bears too in this spot but from what I¡¯ve seen recently it is such a pathetic organization I¡¯m reluctant to back them at any price.   

BOL on your plays 

@Fuse 

@Biscuiteater1 

ITS THE END OF THE SEASON DASH FOR THE CASH

LETS GET IT !!

Anyone who's leaning Bears +6.5, just turn away. Leave the game alone. There's absolutely no way of knowing if the worm turns for them in this particular spot.

They are in coaching purgatory right now.

adding Mahomes Over 10¡¯ rush yds small play

texans pass rush might force him out of the pocket and allow him to pick up some rushing yards

Mahomes ticket cashed pretty quickly 

adding Justice Hill Over 33¡¯ rush + rec yds -115

in 3 previous games vs Steelers he has 41 26 45 total yds

steelers are at a schedule disadvantage, 4th road game in last 5 games

they¡¯ve allowed avg 358 yds/game in the last 3, ranking them #23

ravens offense should have a good day, or at least better than they did last meeting in Pittsburgh 

GLTA 

another small play @kc

OT YES +1800