NFL Week 9 Sunday...

@vanzack

 Agree on that coaching call!  Not sure why you're getting ripped from others.  You're a solid capper!!  Keep grinding and ignore the crapheads/trolls!!

And the Vikings just did exactly what you¡¯re talking about. Colts didn¡¯t call Timeout so Vikings run a play at 2:10 and know they can pass or run. Darnold play action TD to a wide open receiver.

@vanzack

 Tremendous post Vanzack spot on why calling a timeout 2:01-2:05 is dumb. 

how bout this bafoon DABOLL also going for two down 8 two weeks in a row.  This is some new age thing these analytics coaches started couple years ago 

down 14 and score a TD to cut it to 8 they used to always kick the XP but this guy will go for two everytime 

I know the new school thought process is to win game in regulation if u score two TD and convert one 2PT play but I haven¡¯t seen it work out once the team down 14 scores 15 unanswered including converting a 2pt conversion and wins 

It shouldn¡¯t take years off your life, it¡¯s only a kilometer in the marathon¡­absolutely hold your process, the results are coming soon.  Regression has hit every single person, it¡¯s life.  I¡¯ve admired your smaller 2 unit wagers until the traction comes and it will¡­ 
thx for what you do for animal shelters Vanzack ¡­

@Vegas11787

 I totally agree and don't understand why this is a thing at all. 2 pt conversions are not easy to get in NFL and I feel like missing on the first attempt deflates the team. Whereas I think if you are going to do it, it's much better to try it on the 2nd TD. If you have just scored twice down 14 that means the winning team is now on their heels and panicking about giving the game away or is gassed - you have all the momentum and is now the perfect time to steal it the game. I still would kick it there but i can understand that strategy a lot more

If you miss the first time now you need to score and 2 pter just to tie? That's quite daunting. Because you probably used your best playcall 1st time and it didn't work. If you make this decision you better have the right call to get the 2 first time.

But overall all this going for it on every 4th down and going for 2 at weird times has made betting on football a lot less enjoyable than it used to be. These coaches are outsmarting themselves. All the analytics on 4th down like the stupid graphic says GO, are likely outdated from when it used to catch teams off guard. Miami the king of it, i checked a few weeks ago they were 14% on 4th down conversions.

Teams never used to do this early in the game or when they weren't losing by more than 3. Let kickers do their job. Watching the games you can see what is actually working.

I saw it all the time, these guys make so much money they don¡¯t care if they get fired. They already have life changing money. Coaching in the NFL now a days is pretty bad. Philly was lucky they were playing the Jaguars, I would fired Sirianni in a heart beat. Dude tried to draw Jags off ON A 2 PT conversion and then did not get the Tush Push. Then they tried it again on an off sides and failed. Then he was 0-3 after the last TD. He was only saved by football Jesus after throwing another pick.  

Raiders just canned a number of coaches including the OC

@IntenseOperator

 Thx captain obvious¡­ 

Saints fired Dennis Allen this morning Van.

Bears next

OC??

Agreed. Terrible. 

No bet tonight Chiefs / Bucs

GL all

Someone on Twitter asked me about if recent results are attributable to variance or something wrong with what I am doing.  This is my answer - it has a lot to do with what people post in my threads here also....

Things change in the NFL. Year to year, week to week. The one change I am most vulnerable to is favorites covering without statistics to back it up. That is happening a lot this year, and even with adjustments - I cant overdo it. This is the most outlier season in the last 10 with regards to that specific situation.

So either the NFL has fundamentally changed and the predictors of the last several years are somewhat worthless, or we have had 9 weeks of outlier data and or results. Impossible to tell. Only time will tell.

When statistical predictors become less reliable, the market is more random by definition. I do not like risking money on randomness. So my eyes are open. Fortunately, the amount I am down so far is overcomable and not extreme - but I look more at what is causing it that is giving me stomach pains.

My backtesting is showing no way for me to win in some weeks. That has never really happened. This is due to randomness. If I want to bet randomness, I will just go to a casino. If you cant have predictors, you cant have success year on year. My set of predictors have proven to be close to worthless this season.

Will that continue? That is the only answer to your question.

Its not so much that favs are winning (they are). That would be bad, but not terminal. What is terminal is that favs win without the backup of the predictors also. That is terminal.

Good info and totally understandable.  Reminds me of having 100 years of investment data  points thrown out the window when the Fed took control of the financial markets in 2008/09.  At what point do you adjust?  Turns out 15 years later they're still in control.  But it's hard to realize that one year into it and you keep relying on historical data that worked for decades.  Maybe not a perfect analogy but that's what I thought of when reading your post.  Best of luck!

@vanzack

 What data do you filter for? What is your over riding criteria?

I was surprised you were on the Packers yesterday. I had no data that pointed that way at all.

Just curious. 

@vanzack

Looking back through a couple years of your past bets and comparing them to what the market thought, and comparing them to this years bets and what the market thinks, they are basically the same.  Which then you could make the assumption that most sharps that move the market are likely in the same boat as you.  Combine this with your back testing showing randomness, an individual would assume that it is the most likely case.  While the NFL does evolve year to year, coaches have shown stubbornness and inability to adapt to new philosophies that are proven to be successful, which makes me believe the evolution year to year can not be that much.  Maybe the analytics teams the organizations have are evolving the game much quicker than I see.  Every week a player or coach makes a baffling decision that 3rd grader could have made. No new rule changes coming into the year would have that drastic of an impact on the game one would assume, and to the eye nothing seems that much different.  All we can do in life is find an edge and throw the chips in the middle, hope fate is on our side.  BOL the rest of the year. 

This is just purely entertainment....there's always something new and they bringing some back from the past. Like new rules changes on kick offs, coaches making bonehead calls, receivers dropping wide open pass, now blocking FGs for a TD...lol, it's all in the rotation...how else can they pay these players and build larger casino resorts.

@TJZags598

 TJ Whatdya got for tonight? I have KC winning 28-22 or 27-21. Tb/ov. Always looking to compare projections with some of you data whizzes! 

@brn2loslive2win

 Interesting. I have 27-22 KC.

Normally, i would be on TB, 

They have incredible #'s given their strength of schedule.

But, i wont play it based on TB injuries @ key positions.

I have KC in a 3 Teamer with Detroit, Baltimore. I also have Travis Kelce 1st TD. Other than that, i am staying away

@TJZags598

 That¡¯s what I like to hear. TB +9 qualifies as a play for me.GL on your bet 

VZ - what the heck happened to Bitcoin? looks like many have derisked ahead of the big election tomorrow. Keep an eye on $Doge. I think it will be the fastest horse in the race should Trump win tomorrow.

@brn2loslive2win

Good Luck Brother!

Get them next week Champ.

Very sorry to hear how much stress this is putting on you. Your record is unsurpassed by anything I've seen. And I have no doubt you will finish the season in the black. But, I've been doing this for nearly 50 years and I don't care who you are, no one is immune from a bad run. I once lost 17 NFL bets in a row. Obviously thought about quitting. Then I ran a Phil Simms like 22-3. You know better than I do--if you play long enough you're going to take hits.

A bit of gambling levity. When I went 0-17, my local told me a story about a hapless guy who lost 20 straight football games. Feeling bad for him, he suggested that maybe the guy try something different, maybe hockey. The guy replied " but I don't know anything about hockey."

Hang in there. You're exceptionally good at this.

This can't be understated. Even the best cappers have losing seasons at some point. If someone has been doing this for a decade or longer, and tells you they never had a losing season in a given sport, they are flat out lying and likely trying to sell you something.