@brn2loslive2win
@vanzack Something I¡¯ve been thinking about lately- I¡¯ll use the Tampa/Detroit game as an example. If the lines available to me are Tampa +6.5 -110 or Tampa +6 +100. In a situation like this I assume that you would play it as a 6.75 with an average -105. Instead of this do you think it¡¯s better to just put the whole bet on +6? The way I see it is that if it¡¯s a 7 point Detroit win, I lose either way. The only drawback is obviously that in a 6 point game I push whereas the 6.5 bettors win. Seeing as only a small percentage of games land on a 6 point margin, is it better to make the bet on 6 with no juice? Why bother paying for 6.5 or 6.75? Again, at 7 the bet is a loser anyway, so why not just make the bet with zero vig? Maybe it¡¯s silly to trade off a possible win for a push (on a 6 point game obviously) but in the long term is it better to be paying no vig and trade off the occasional push for a win?
Lemme take a crack:
First off, +6 +100, there's still vig. Even though you're receiving 100% of your bet, there's still vig you're giving up in the range between the +100 and whatever -negative number you see for the -6 Detroit line (only saying all this to help reframe your perspective on value/lines/price/etc.). That's like saying there's no vig on betting red in roulette. Even though you're getting "even money", you're not getting exactly true odds in return, and the vig is hidden within the green numbers at the table (in simple terms).
As for 6vs6.25, it boils down to long term value betting that +6.25 (-105) than +6.0 (+100). If Van, for example, liked a +6.25(-105) play more than a +6(+100) play, I guarantee you he's done the math of what the long term value would be if he put the entire wager on the +6 instead of getting the +6.25. And he decided there's long term value (over thousands of plays) receiving 5% less than even money. That's not to say every 6.25vs6.0 situation means there's more value on the 6.25.
You just have to do your own calculation. First layer would be looking at key numbers throughout the NFL and where they land. Second layer would apply a normal distribution to the results you see in this game, and see if it's weighted more in any other key numbers, or spread out in a way that says that extra 5% you'd receive in all non-6point Detroit winning finals OUTWEIGHS the moments (although 'rare' as they might seem) when you pushed when you could have received half a win (nearly 50% more return than the push).
this week vanzack.
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