Good morning to all!
A few things I noticed this morning after quickly glancing around...
My projected o/u is around 7 pts over the actual line (I say 7 pts because I realized i had over 196 not 198) --- At first, I had no idea how to interpret it, and I still don't know exactly what to think of it, but I do like the fact that a decent amount of people are on the under. Had a large number of people been on the over with me as if my 196 was a more accurate line, then I would think something were fishy. But, the fact of the matter is that people actually like the under and believe not many points will be scored.
Orlando played last at home on the 14th and lost to the nuggets. They have actually lost 5 of their last 6?? Orlando is on the other end of the spectrum in comparison to a team like the hornets. After spring training and preseason, I was convinced that orlando was going to be rockin.. but theyve been a pretty big disappointment recently. That said, I think it's a fluke. I think the virus that went around, along with trade rumors, and injuries are all possible and valid reasons one can use to justify orlando's little slump. After 3 days off now, Orlando is now going to face a nice little 5 game span where I think they anticipate reasserting themselves: vs. Philly, @ Atlanta, Vs. Dallas, Vs. San Antonio and then Vs. BOSTON (christmas).
Philly is clearly the odd team out in this equation, despite their recent success ATS. I don't think Orlando can afford any more mistakes right now, nor do I think they believe they can just cruise past teams like they used to. I think tonight's game will be a "tone-setter" for their upcoming schedule. They need to get their confidence back, and what better team to do it against besides Philly, the team Orlando has seen in the playoffs recently, who probably thinks they can still compete with orlando because of a couple of close games between the two.
Philly just played an extremely boring game against the lakers. If I'm not mistaken, i think it was 8-0 Lakers with 6:20 left in the first quarter?? I dont think Philly matches up well at all with the lakers, i mean who does? But the matchup with Orlando is a lot more realistic and a lot more meaningful. If you consider a bunch of these factors, I basically envision one type of game: one where orlando gets back into its grove, which means they will score 110+ points at home, and a philly team who will play catch up all night, but still capable of putting up points, especially because of how shitty they played last night against the lakers..
A little extra info:
Nov. 12: Philly lost in a low scoring affair to Mavs (90-99)
Nov. 13: Philly got blown out by Spurs (93-116) -- high scoring
Also, tell me if you think otherwise, but I honestly see the Spurs' style of play as identical to Orlando's - literally East and West versions of each other.
Dec. 3: Philly lost in a low scoring affair to Atlanta (88-93)
Dec. 4: Philly beat Charlotte (109-91) -- high scoring
Dec. 14: Philly won in a low scoring game against Nets (82-77)
Dec. 15: Philly won in a higher scoring game (105-91)
All this is, is to show that I don't think just because Philly didn't score much last night, that they can put up numbers tonight. Philly has obviously also been in low scoring games this season on back to backs, but I think its interesting how, if you take a look at all their b2b this season, it seems like the type of game they play in the 1st game is the opposite of what they play in Game 2.
Ex:
Nov. 2: Loss to Washington 115-116
Nov. 3: Win vs. Indiana 101-75 -- mind you, indiana can put up pts
Nov. 16: Loss 93-101
Nov. 17 Loss to Toronto 86-94 -- mind you, Toronto can put up pts
Nov. 23: Loss to Washington 114-116 (pretty funny actually)
Nov. 24: Loss to Toronto 90-106 -- O/U was 206, so, under
That covers most of their b2b this season...
I think you might witness a game quite similar to Philly's loss to the Spurs earlier in the year 93-116, maybe not as bad though, but you never know. Either way, I think Orlando reaches the 100 pt mark tonight rather easily, and I think Philly can reach 90 if so. I highly doubt that the game remains close and low scoring, but that's just speculation. Hell, the game could end 79-71 for all I know and I would have nothing more to say.
Despite all this info, I still somewhat feel like something weird is going on. I don't usually miss the o/u totals by this many points, especially if it's under 200. (For ex: I am not reading into the fact that I had Den/Minn over 217, when it came out at 225)
This is the initial for this Game 1: Orlando -8 / Over 189.5
moto 
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