YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 7-4 ATS
Took a double loss on Rodon and the NYY last time out, and yesterday was traveling back from the mountains where I had spotty service all weekend. Promised myself I will NOT post anything anymore if I don' have adequate time (and connectivity) to analyze. I clearly don't always win but I also don't shoot from the hip. Full transparency, I'm actually probably flat when you consider units, given I laid some juice on favorites that lost.
Today sees a full slate of games and there are some really good matchups out there currently. Personally, I like the Tigers in a home playoff game with a raucous crowd even if the game is being played early. Both the Tigers and Indians have been UNDER machines of late and while the starting pitching isn't anything to write home about, it's hard not to take to heart how inept both offenses have been over the last month. BUT...when you have great starting pitching and a solid bullpen, you can still eek out wins and that's where I think the Tigers have the advantage.
The game I like more are the NYM who are very reminiscent of other hot teams (cue the Phillies two years ago) that get hot at the end of the season and keep powering W's even against teams that are seemingly better than them, at least on paper. Both starting pitchers have been solid in their career in the playoffs, but neither has really had a ton of experience. Jose Quintana has been fantastic over the last month, for sure his past 5 starts, and I think the Phillies bats, which are cold, stay that way. When you look even deeper into the numbers, the Phillies have struggled top to bottom against Quintana, boasting NO players hitting above .300 vs. him in their lineup. While Suarez has been good against guys like Alonso and Nimmo, he has struggled against the likes of Lindor and Marte. Given Lindor is imo the best hitter on both teams at the present moment, I like him to at least be part of one if not multiple runs as he leads off today.
I don't see a lot of long balls tonight, both pitchers have been good in limiting them, though Suarez is much worse during the day vs. at night and also has a worse record on the road. He was unhittable before being injured earlier this year and I don't think he has regained that form. That being said, the first play for me will be:
NYM (-115)
Going to see how that goes and then return later with a play on the NYY/KC game. I hope everyone has had a solid postseason so far and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
Hot Forum Topics
