Quote Originally Posted by VegasGourmet:
Dear God...
I do not know why this thread stays alive
Please trust me, I am not "talking down" to anyone...I am only talking to those who think about this subject.
*******************************************************************
Unless you have enough capital NOT to need a job, you do not have enough to become a professional sports gambler...period.
If you are not capable of making the sportsbooks respond to what you are doing...or what your employees are doing...you cannot make a living a sports gambling.
If you think that you can make a living gambling on sports, you cannot.
*************************************************************
Those three assertions are honest and are based upon years of experience in the industry....knowing some who have succeeded and knowing many more who are no longer in this town....and I have been associated with LV since the 70's.
I disagree. Someone with the discipline to bet >50 or 20 games a year and go a week or a month without betting can do it. Thats much easier said than done, especcially for someone with the talent to pick games passing on that many good bets. Other than that you need to manipulate the lines as you say (and still have good picking talent and discipline).
It swings both ways. If your a bozo used to flushing his money down the toilet you are more likely to be capable of "waiting for pocket aces" than a good capper who would have to force himself to lay off a dozen or so good bets which would occur in the interim. So in terms of long term profitability picking games isn't that important and only benefits you marginally if you want to be a pro. Obviously the 60% picker has a better shot than the 54% picker. And anyone decent will be going off thier own intuitions not paying for picks. But if your good keep in mind that the biggest fucknuts who are always on the wrong side on their own picks are better suited to being pro gamblers because they will be able to wait for good games should they somehow gain an edge or just identify certain opportunites whatever they may be. They are used to what they think being wrong where you are used to being right about most games. Hard to not have action on winners that end up crushing.
THe reason why noone can do it is the 60% better becomes a far worse picker after a horrible run of bad buzzer beater losses that just wiped out 2 months of profit. And Vegas wont shut your line off you can keep going back until it is gone.
Gambling every day takes a toll on you. I have never seen my old man sat a poker table without a massive stack of chips in front of him and I know he isnt lying about making money at it or that he paid for our ski trips to tahoe at the tables. But the couple years inbetween work he played cards for a living he was broke, I was in 6th grade and had to buy groceries a couple times.
I made (LOW) 5 figures in 2010 betting on sports. Noone will ever be able to tell me I didnt, that is a full calendar year and I slugged through most of it clearing about half in December. Im down 8 or 9k in 2011 and I dont give myself a better than 50% chance of being in the black in 2011.
Its a tough grind but you can do it. Just when you lose on stupid ass close shit the following games is when you need to bounce back but its a catch 22 because your emotionally not in good shape to be betting.
Learn from your mistakes and you can pull it off. Just if you dont have the discipline to only bet every third week in football or one or two games a week college bb you dont have a chance in the long run no matter how good you are.