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Uvxy ( or any other inverse/short play on the market)

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Posts: 42

CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Feb. 27, 2013 - 11:49 PM ET #1

Just do it.
Italy or any other Euro country, Unemployment/jobless claims, debt ceiling, fiscal cliff, the "next thing they come up with", inflation, or any thee bad economic data like below 2% growth which can't sustain an economic expansion......
This market will get hit an hit hard for at least a 5-10% pull back. I got back into UVXY today at $10 when my limit order hit.
It'll pop to 12$+ very soon. Just like it did last couple days.
I have limit orders at 9.50 and 9 as well to dollar cost down if necessary.

Cheers

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JimmyDrizzl

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 651

Posted: Mar. 2, 2013 - 12:48 AM ET #2

Cheers to you Craig as well!!!

If you have this timed right you will certainly cash in big time.

Have you ever pulled off good timing in market moves before?

I have been thinking about these short ETF'S like UVXY for a long time myself.

How confident are you that the market will tank..and, what month do you think it will happen?

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 4, 2013 - 1:55 PM ET #3

Yes. Easy if you are patient. The market will hit upside resistance and drop on either not enough good news or bad news. Since this post I've traded it 2-3 times.
If you don't time it perfect, dollar cost down and just hold til it pops.

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 4, 2013 - 1:57 PM ET #4

I think it will be very volatile through the year. I don't like holding myself to a time period so I don't play options. I just know that at some point, within 3-12 months the market will drop at least 5-10% and a drop like that would require people being scared and te ViX will pop big. I buy anytime 10$ or below and sell anytime above 11.50$

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JimmyDrizzl

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 651

Posted: Mar. 5, 2013 - 6:35 AM ET #5

Dropped yesterday....Now at $10.06 ( Tues 3/5/2013)

What to do next? There are always going to be the BIG TIME players trying to outsmart you and whipsaw you to death and take all your money.

Can you beat them long term at this?

I have not jumped in yet...I have this feeling you are right about the market getting ready to correct. Just know the timing has to be just about perfect for a guy like myself to make money at this as I do not have the time to sit all day looking at trading movements on a computer screen.

If is was easy..everyone would be doing it.

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 5, 2013 - 11:16 PM ET #6

Got in today 3 times. 10$ 9.75 and 9.50. Dollar costing down.
We shall see what happens but I will hold until at least 11-12$. 3k shares total average cost right at 9.75

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 5, 2013 - 11:17 PM ET #7

Time is the key factor. I'm an advisor so I am in front of the computer and trade for myself and clients.

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Mar. 6, 2013 - 2:19 PM ET #8

This thing moves quick in either direction. What do you put your stops at? This is definitely not a buy and hold fund. I just put a little in at 9.50 after we hit the record yesterday for the Dow, but I'm not sure I would average down or hold this for more then a few days. This is a pure gamble and can only be used for trades. At least that's my perception of it.

I have played with FAZ and TZA and they look like child's play compared to the movement of this one.

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 8, 2013 - 7:16 PM ET #9

Bought more today again at 9 and 8.75

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 8, 2013 - 7:19 PM ET #10

No stops. Just feel. The market will have a catalyst that puts uvxy above 10 within 2 weeks and in my opinion pops to 15 within 6 months. Obv I won't hold it. Trade it every time I have a couple percent profit. Usually above 11 I sell. There is market momentum and it's moving against me now but I'm confident it pops soon and quickly. I buy 1000 shares every quarter drop. Usually works to dollar cost in. I just dot want to be caught hanging onto it for months because the fee and rollover of futures contracts inherently move this etf down over time. Good luck in whatever you play.

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 8, 2013 - 7:21 PM ET #11

@bill. Agree with everything you said. It is pure speculation and gambling. I mean I have over 7500 shares right now but the majority of my funds are long term and long the market In a tactical allocation. That won't change
But my short term positions do change a lot.
Cheers

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Mar. 8, 2013 - 7:23 PM ET #12

I also bought agq and ugl. 2x silver and gold respectively this morning. Up a little from cost but will hold. Gold holding 1570 is very bullish and obviously a fear trade and silver is more of a bet on fear AND economy. (considering its use in industry)

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Mar. 12, 2013 - 9:01 PM ET #13

Alright, I said I wasn't going to do it, but I bought a little more at 8.50 so averaged at 9 just because I really expect this garbage to drop hard and fast soon

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JimmyDrizzl

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 651

Posted: Mar. 14, 2013 - 6:43 PM ET #14

$7.97 as of market close, Thurs 3/14/2013.

We all know a correction is overdue.

WHEN? That is the big question for all of us.

Do we buy in around $6.50? and get out quickly 3 days later?

Indeed, this is like going to the casino.

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Mar. 14, 2013 - 10:19 PM ET #15

Yea, pretty crazy I only have a small position of 500 shares. I wouldn't be too happy right now with anything more then that. Vix at an all time low records being broke everyday. How much can Bennie throw at this mess

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 3:23 PM ET #16

Craig, do you ever sit here and watch this thing? Just massive movement even on a small scale of a minute you have $.30 swings. Have you tried just purely trading it ever or do you just buy and hold for a certain price? Are there shares available to short at an abundance?

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Apr. 10, 2013 - 1:02 PM ET #17

dollar cost averaging down for the last time, just bought 2500 more shares at $6.60... my cost basis is around 7.50-7.60. i've been buying 500-1000 share lots the whole way down .... i see something coming from europe or lackluster earnings/employment numbers and this thing will spike. i just have to catch it when it does. i'm very active and in front of the computer with it streaming all day so hoping we get some bad news. i'm down over 10% and have a cost basis of just under 100k in this. it has grown into my third largest position, which i didnt intend to happen, but such is life when you invest and dollar cost average down like i have.

there's gotta be some bad news somewhere on the horizon, i cannot fathom this continuing to drop. i'll cut the cord if i lose another 10% or so, just have to set a limit. dont want to 'catch a falling knife' here, i just really believe with anythin negative this will pop 20% easy...

we shall see

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Wake2002

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 747

Posted: Apr. 10, 2013 - 9:44 PM ET #18

Dollar cost averaging on a 2x VIX ETF with a chart that looks like this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UVXY+Interactive#symbol=uvxy;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Hope you catch that spike you are hoping for soon

If not, you might want to consider cutting and running and taking your losses. Getting stubborn over a position like this could end up wiping you out. 2x funds like this are trading tools, you've got to be careful holding these longer term, especially when it is something like 2x on VXX which is a decaying position to begin with

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JimmyDrizzl

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 651

Posted: Apr. 10, 2013 - 10:21 PM ET #19

Question for Craig B : I looked at the 2 year chart for UVXY and it shows that this trading vehicle was trading at $1,400.00....(fourteen hundred dollars) about two or so years ago. Is that really true, or is that a typo or some mistake?

If this thing can go to levels like that it would certainly be worth the gamble to jump in heavy. The upside is 100x more than the downside if these numbers are correct.

Craig, What is the highest price you have personally seen UVXY hit?

Can it go to zero and be worth nothing? Ahhh, too bad crystal balls are illegal!!

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JEFFMARKETCAP

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2002

Posts: 56152

Posted: Apr. 11, 2013 - 6:24 PM ET #20

I furkin give up. Today I bought a garbage load of TNA call options that expire tomorrow. I know this market is bullshit but it can't be beat for now. Just keep riding the wave. I think that 2nd half of the year is when the bubble bursts.

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Apr. 12, 2013 - 12:01 PM ET #21

Jimmy it will just do a reverse split. They don't want it to go to zero with their management fees.

Craig, so if this aims to double the Vix. Why is it never close on days it actually goes up? For example, right now the Vix gained almost 6 percent right now, but UVXY is basically even. We should be up close to 10 percent right about now? Last week the same thing. The Vix gained almost 15 percent on one of the days and we were sitting at a 4 percent or so gain. I understand you can't directly invest in the Vix, but if you aim to double the return and you only get a fraction of the return wtf is going on?

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Apr. 15, 2013 - 10:30 AM ET #22

Again, the Vix is 9 percent higher this morning and UVXY only up 2 percent.

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bill702

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2235

Posted: Apr. 15, 2013 - 3:20 PM ET #23

It's finally running a little bit.

Still Vix up 32 percent and UVXY only up 16 percent. We should be at 64 percent and above $10 if it actually came close to its 2x goal. I have a break even point at 7.36. I think after this week I'm just going to play it for short short trades since its not even close to following its objective.

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Apr. 15, 2013 - 4:13 PM ET #24

i just got out right at market close and after market....i'll take my gains and count myself lucky for the most part and slightly smart for continually dollar-cost averaging

cheers

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CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 182

Posted: Apr. 15, 2013 - 4:16 PM ET #25

Quote Originally Posted by JimmyDrizzl:

Question for Craig B : I looked at the 2 year chart for UVXY and it shows that this trading vehicle was trading at $1,400.00....(fourteen hundred dollars) about two or so years ago. Is that really true, or is that a typo or some mistake?

If this thing can go to levels like that it would certainly be worth the gamble to jump in heavy. The upside is 100x more than the downside if these numbers are correct.

Craig, What is the highest price you have personally seen UVXY hit?

Can it go to zero and be worth nothing? Ahhh, too bad crystal balls are illegal!!

yes it could effectively work towards $0.

they can continually reverse split if they choose to so it would never hit it though

ive seen it during the euro crisis up around 160-200 level but never dabbled until it was below $50 always for quick trades.

this was my longest trade and most stressful but fortunately for my brokerage account i maintain my discipline and stick to my guns, made a great gain here and felt it necessary to take my solid gains and relax for a bit.

cheers

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Uvxy ( or any other inverse/short play on the market)

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