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Spooky forex...October thread

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bucknuts

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 8951

Posted: Oct. 4, 2010 - 4:57 AM ET #1

Hey Wall check out the long term AUD charts.....we are getting a DI/ADX cross on the weekly,if she cant cross and hold above 97 we could see a slide back to 90 or the upper 80s..

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wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 4, 2010 - 11:23 AM ET #2

buck,

I am shocked at the EU chart..where the hell are they taking it? Back to 1.40?

The fed is screwing the US trade with the QE discussion..people are front running the US short in anticipation of the FED floating more USD to prop the economy.

The AU is just a function of the hot commodities market, we start to see the USM crack, she will too..I keep on doing my little adds here and there trying to wait for it to crack..

In Sept the EU went up over 1000 pips, the AU about 700 plus..that is a HUGE move. I know these US pairs will pay and large but it might be a long painful while waiting.

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wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 5, 2010 - 1:06 PM ET #3

Off to the races I guess..

So Japan wants to slow the Yen and the ISM ticks up slightly and we are up almost 2%?

How can the DOW be at 11k with 10% unemployment and pretty much zero growth?

I find this saga interesting..the FED is going to buy our way out of the recession regardless of the cost or effect longer term.

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 6, 2010 - 1:24 PM ET #4

Wall and Buck.........Have you guys every made a trade off of economic news releases. I have been following those and there does seem to be move the minute they release the economic number. The move does not seem to last more than say 15 to 30 min, maybe a little longer. And I would say that the avg. pip move before it levels out is around 20 pips, sometimes less, sometimes much more.

I use Forexpros.com economic calendar. Very simple and easy to understand. They rank the news release on its basis of importance to the currency. And when that number is off the estimate, you will get a good move over the next half hour or so.

As with any trade it does not always go positive, but I think some pips can be had off these. But as I said, the trade does not last very long. Win or lose, you are out inside of an hour, mostly.

If you all get a chance sometime, take a look at that calendar at Forexpro. Check the most important releases that came out, note the time, then go to the 1 and 5 min charts to see the 15-20-30 pip move off of that economic number. Tell what you see overall

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 6, 2010 - 2:47 PM ET #5

Just a follow up on the economic no. out today

Canada got a good no. reported at 10:00am. At exactly 10am, all Canadian pairs ran 40-50 pips over the next 2 hours.

US dollar had a bad no. come out at 8:15am. The EUR/USD went up 20 pips in first 5 min.. then down 20 pips by 8:45....then turned and and was up 80 pips by noon.

Crazy one the other night was the AUD. At exactly 11:30pm they got interest rate change lower, I think it was and the AUD/USD dumped 80 pips in 5 min......then kept dumping another 50 pips until 3am. It then reversed and ran back up 130 pips by 10am.

Sure seems like there is something to it.......but then again maybe not, some people say they have a hard time getting their orders filled during these news releases. I have read, brokers dont like it when you trade around the news.

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bucknuts

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 8951

Posted: Oct. 6, 2010 - 2:52 PM ET #6

Yeah if you read through some threads youll see some news trades..heres another site that tracks releases...

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?s=95a8e6e657998646c2d9ece0b2f65daf

heres a site that does webinars and they trade the news release LIVE........

https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/trade_the_news/

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 6, 2010 - 3:46 PM ET #7

Thanks Buc i will check those out

Yesterday 10/5 the big news was on JPY interest rates. Came out at 12:30am I think. Most pairs in JPY ran 20 to 40 pips in 15 min then reversed back some after 30 min.....crazy

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 6, 2010 - 10:50 PM ET #8

The AUD had a very good employment no. come out at 8:30pm. By 8:31 it had moved up 70 pips.....then instantly went flat. HOW does one trade that move, anybody know ?? Is it impossible to get filled when its moving that fast ??

I read in another forum about a guy that trades news and he said that he could get in the trade on his practice acct. but not in his live account, Whats that bullshit ? Others say brokers dont like it when you trade around news releases. Whats the difference, why should they care ? I dont know, maybe it is not possible to do this and make a few pips.

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 11:45 AM ET #9

Well I tried trading the jobs no. this morn. at 8:30. It was expected to be bad. Sold the dollar across 5 pairs at 8:25. Number did come out bad and I made an obscene amount of pips in 6-7 min. Just using a practice acct. thou. I wonder if a live account would produce the results.

Totals for trade was...uj=15....eu=71 ucd=31 uch=44 gu=72 au=62 total=295

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 11:55 AM ET #10

The question is..... what if the jobs no. comes out positive. How fast can one close those trades in real time and in a real acct. Bottom line is... I get smoked for a bunch of money if that report comes out positive. My guess is its a crap shoot, 50/50, just like betting on any game. But is was fun to see that much money added to my practice acct. for once.

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wallstreetcappers

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Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 12:54 PM ET #11

Well it is a crap shoot because the numbers are manipulated and phony.

Month over month they come out with a number and it is revised lower and lower as the time goes on..so last month with the so-called increase, it was revised to a decrease..this number was shoddy but they ramped it anyway.

The underlying reason for the move has less to do with the data and more to do with the macro issues and momentum.

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 2:12 PM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Well it is a crap shoot because the numbers are manipulated and phony.

Month over month they come out with a number and it is revised lower and lower as the time goes on..so last month with the so-called increase, it was revised to a decrease..this number was shoddy but they ramped it anyway.

The underlying reason for the move has less to do with the data and more to do with the macro issues and momentum.

Hey Wall whats up hoes the golf game

You know I respect your opinion, and what you say here is very true, we see manipulation and revisions all the time.

But......I guess my contention would be that they are not going to revise the number inside of an hour or even a day. Most of the time one would close out this type of (trade the news strategy) inside of 15-30-60 minutes, be it a winner or a loser, your out. If the number is revised, it is usually days later, that wont effect a trade thats already been closed out obviously.

I would not put a dime on this or anything else in forex at this time...I know where I would end up. But I enjoy trying in my practice account for some stupid reason. Like I said playing for real would just be a crap shoot for me. They say 90 some percent of people lose money trading, and those are not good odds. You and Buc seem to be in that few percent that make money in forex. I have seen that for myself, at least in this forum over the last couple of years. You guys should be proud of that, it is not that easy as you all know...later Wall keep it down the middle.

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 2:19 PM ET #13

Wall

That should read How's the golf game.

Is there a way to go in and correct stupid spelling after posting. Or even removing a dumb post after it is submitted ?

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 4:05 PM ET #14

1Iron,

I didnt mean that as a comment about you not being able to trade it, rather that for me it is tough to trade news when there are other forces which influence the trade.

So the news today should have pushed the USD higher, as a run against risk, but they are selling the USD because of anticipation of QEII, so any news is sold..the USD keeps making new lows against most other currencies.

Until the trend breaks it is hard to go long the USD no matter what.

Going golfing on Monday, first time in a long time..too many other issues to deal with that make it impossible to devote proper time to golf..it makes me mad but I am not one of those hacker type that will play if I am not doing so great.

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 8, 2010 - 5:21 PM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

1Iron,

I didnt mean that as a comment about you not being able to trade it, rather that for me it is tough to trade news when there are other forces which influence the trade.

So the news today should have pushed the USD higher, as a run against risk, but they are selling the USD because of anticipation of QEII, so any news is sold..the USD keeps making new lows against most other currencies.

Until the trend breaks it is hard to go long the USD no matter what.

Going golfing on Monday, first time in a long time..too many other issues to deal with that make it impossible to devote proper time to golf..it makes me mad but I am not one of those hacker type that will play if I am not doing so great.

Good luck on Monday Wall, glad to hear you can get out. It is a hard game and it does take time and practice to play at a higher level than most. Whats good for me is, I have no. 14 tee box about 20 yards from my recliner. And the weather is good 12 months a year. Anyways, I hope you knock down a few putts, that always helps when you do not get to play much.

Thanks for the comments as always................................

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 20, 2010 - 10:15 PM ET #16

buck,

You surviving?

They seem to sell any and all USD rallies, like tonight the US.Yen pops on Timmy news and they sell it right back less than an hour later.

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Oct. 21, 2010 - 10:21 AM ET #17

Wall

Has the new forex trading rules gone into effect yet. Lots of chat about it on other forums. Thought I read that the new rules would take effect on the 18th of Oct. Something about lower leverages and increased margin for US traders.

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 21, 2010 - 11:24 AM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by 1IRON:

Wall

Has the new forex trading rules gone into effect yet. Lots of chat about it on other forums. Thought I read that the new rules would take effect on the 18th of Oct. Something about lower leverages and increased margin for US traders.

Well I am with FXDD alone now, I switched away because of the potential issues and as buck noted that most foreign brokers are not going to do business with us anymore..unless someone finds a loophole I guess.

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bucknuts

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 8951

Posted: Oct. 23, 2010 - 6:29 PM ET #19

Wow i responded to you Wall and i guess it didnt post??Sorry bro

Im hanging in there...Wall i saw some talk about people looking to move money offshore to a bank maybe create a trust or something to trade at the broker they want such as delta...but if its the chart package you like you could always keep a demo open,mine is still going and ive never had to send a request to have them reopen it..i do love the way i have it set for MT4...just awesome

I really like all the long term charts..i still think AUD is close to the WALL here...weekly to me looks as if it could slip down to 92s...EU 132..CHF maybe up to 1.03???Longer charts now into oversold/bought areas..they could still run for sure but they do look good to me now...

Drawing lines on the RSI even looks good as pullbacks to those levels would still show the RSIs in an up channels..Not sure,the market just keeps going and risk has enjoyed the ride thus far...but it has to stop doesnt it?Dollar wont get any help from the feds though thats for sure...what a long strange trip its been

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Coondawg71

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 668

Posted: Oct. 28, 2010 - 9:30 AM ET #20

Wow....where is everybody??? A little tooooo Spooooky huh?!?

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Oct. 28, 2010 - 1:18 PM ET #21

Yeah this anti USD trend for the last month has a few of us sitting on our hands.

Another interesting reversal last night too..not sure what turned the tide but the USD got kicked yet again, maybe talk of a larger QE again?

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Nov. 4, 2010 - 8:35 AM ET #22

Pretty easy trading the dollar yesterday against all pairs after the fed announcement that it was going to print more dollars. Had to wait out the crazy action till 2:30pm, after that, dollar dumped for a couple hours and a bunch of pips. Look at the gold and silver charts after the Fed statement, gold plus 34$ as of now, silver up a buck. I wonder if it will keep selling off over the next week or is the selling done ?.

Looks like the opening of the European session drove the dollar down even more, 50 to 100 pips on most pairs. I caught some of the move yesterday afternoon, but missed out on the early morning move down. Even a novice like me could see that one coming, but not willing to hold very long, its all still a gamble, big time.

1iron

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1IRON

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 246

Posted: Nov. 4, 2010 - 9:09 AM ET #23

Another bad jobs number at 8:30am. Bought EUR/USD, 5 lots at 1.4240. Taking profit here at +16 pips x 5. Not bad.

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Spooky forex...October thread

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