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#1
***DISCLAIMER*** I am not affiliated in any way with any financial or investment firms. I've been trading for myself for 6 years now, mostly currency pairs and futures. This is NOT trading/investment advice, they're only ideas on what I think "should" play out over the next couple of years.
Theme 1 - Rising interest rates
Interest rates have been at record lows... like... forever (not really, but it seems that way to me). The bond market has been on an insane bull run for the last 30 years, and just now we're seeing outflows from the bond markets and into equities. I honestly believe we're seeing a generational shift in flows between these two that could continue for a long time.
Theme 2 - The world isn't ending
Every morning I wake up early and flip on CNBC while I have my coffee and breakfast. Every morning the world's ending. Whether it's Syria, Europe, China slowing, the Nikkei down 600 points after an incredible bull run, War, Financial Crisis, Tapering, Debt Ceiling issues, whatever the hell it may be. I'd just like to point out, that US indices are at all-time highs, and not once has the god da**ed world ended. On this note, if you've been paying any attention to safe haven assets, Mr. Market has been telling you it doesn't think the world's ending either (cause that's just stupid). Because the world isn't ending, you really don't want to be overweight things like bonds, gold, and FFS stay away from silver. (My stupid market call that nobody really cares about but I'll have a bunch of people yell at me and say Gold is going to 5000! is that we see gold at 800 or less before we see 2000, go ahead, flame away.)
Theme 3 - GROWTH!
The trend in jobless claims has slowly been declining, but declining it has been! And that's what matters. Every day on T.V. the "analysts" (a lot are really journalists or analysts that have conflicts of interest) talk about how crappy the economy is. Sure, we're not booming, point noted with no refute. However; we're still growing, and we're gonna start growing FASTER.
Soooo, we throw everything in a pressure cooker, bond outflows, safe-haven assets crashing, emerging market and "commodity" currencies declining, USD up, Oil down (just wait), interest rates rising and a 32% total asset allocation in equities and 68% in bonds, and what do we get?!?!?
Things to short and/or remain neutral on
- Emerging markets (not all, just the worst of the bunch, don't short an EEM ETF or anything)
- Gold
- Bonds
- Utilities
- Materials
- MLP's
- The Yen (That Abe guy's a crazy mofo)
- and FFS don't play at all with 2x 3x leveraged ETF's unless you've been doing it for a long time
Things to BUYBUYBUY as that unaccountable dude on Mad Money would say
- High growth stocks in general (please do research first)
- Financials (NOT BOND FUNDS)
- U.S. Consumer Discretionaries (Nike, Starbucks, etc.)
- U.S. Dollars (sounds silly, don't feel like explaining)
There's 3 things that are certain in the markets (maybe more, well, certainly more, but I'm trying to stress a point here.)
- There will be pullbacks (good time to buy stuff)
- There will be another crash (REALLY good time to buy stuff)
- THE FU**ING WORLD ISN'T GOING TO END (If it does, who gives a sh** whether or not you own gold?)
And on a final note, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE COVERS BROTHERS DO NOT BUY SHIT ON GREEN, DO NOT SHORT ON RED, AND DO NOT OVER-LEVERAGE UNLESS YOU ABSOLUTELY KNOW WHAT THE FU** YOU ARE DOING. For all you sports bettors... two analogies...
- Buying after 5 straight up days and "OMG NEW HIGHS!" is like laying -160 when you can wait for a pullback and get the same play for -110. DON'T CHASE.
- Using a bunch of leverage and trading on margin with capital you can't afford to lose is like getting super coked up, winning 100k at your game of choice in Vegas, renting out the nicest room available, getting drunk as fu**, banging a bunch of hookers, passing out, and waking up with 0 money, no coke, and a bunch of STD's. So please, unless that's how you "roll", don't do it.
Hope you guys enjoyed, or at least don't want to stab your eyes out, or get drunk as hell because your head hurts. Actually, I'll consider it a victory if everyone that read this is still breathing. Feel free to comment, it's nice talking with JQPub about this stuff sometimes, instead of those pretentious bastards on campus that think they know something. Cheers! 
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