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Posts: 14

taima

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 6

Posted: Mar. 7, 2012 - 8:40 PM ET #1

Stock was trading at around $13 yesterday.

What are the chances this company gets bought out by Apple (or Google)?

Google just bought motorola (and their patents) at 67% above market price for the stock. RIMM aparently holds 10000-15000 patents.If Samsung or Microsoft gains control of them it might not be good for Apple.

Microsoft and Samsung rumoured to be interested in buying Nokia too. Nokia estimated to be holding at least 50 essential 4G patents, and possibly in excess of 100 essential 3G patents, Apple could unencumber itself from paying a lot of royalty fees ad infinitum by picking up Nokia too.

As a contrarian type investment what are your thoughts on RIMM? Does it survive with the Blackerry 10? Does it get bought out by Apple, Microsoft, Google or Samsung? Or does it go bankrupt and auction off it's patents like Nortel did?

I think if one of the two former than it is a greta buy now. If the latter than it is a bust.

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Renton

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 6299

Posted: May. 28, 2012 - 2:39 PM ET #2

Two problems arise when talking about a RIMM foreign takeover.

The Canadian government could stand in the way if it doesn't view the deal as being beneficial to Canadians. Restrictions would likely be placed on any foreign entity, thus hurting the valuation. The regulatory bodies would not allow a patent scoop up and then disbandment.

The American government would scrutinize any potential deal to no end. Due to the relationship between the Department of Defence and RIMM that likely means Samsung or any other non American entity isn't a likely suitor.

Apple is doing just fine in the marketplace, and likely has little need of RIMM patents or technology.

That means of those you listed, two possible options in Microsoft & Google. If it's a patent grab like you claim, why wouldn't they wait until the BlackBerry maker bleeds itself dry?

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: May. 28, 2012 - 2:46 PM ET #3

RIMM is starting to get priced near real book, they have no debt and about 4 bucks in cash.

Margins are probably dipping and they might go into the red if things continue to go badly.

Microsoft or Google are good candidates and it would probably take years until they bleed themselves dry, they have no debt.

If they were to stop the stock purchase and slow down on investments they could weather multiple years before needing use of any debt.

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Renton

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 6299

Posted: May. 28, 2012 - 3:15 PM ET #4

The strength of RIMM also happens to be its major weakness and hurdle in growth. The encryption technology is the best in the marketplace, that makes it a great niche product for corporations and governments alike. The key in that, is that it is a niche product, only suited for North America, Europe, the South Pacific and foreign Governments at this time.

The problem is that it isn't able to be a global player, like investors thought it would, because the encryption technology scares foreign governments. Governments that like to monitor their citizens, have little patience for a company like RIMM to grow its brand.

If the company downsizes, and finds itself being the right size for its proper market share, it will do just fine. If it continues to try and push the boundaries, by overestimating its growth potential, then we'll likely see another Nortel in the making.

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Renton

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 6299

Posted: May. 28, 2012 - 3:23 PM ET #5

Wall is absolutely right, in that we are witnessing a company who is in the middle of realizing its rightful place in the market. Investors hurt themselves, by not looking at the bigger picture. Like most technology stocks, the heights that we saw with RIMM were a mirage, pushed by good vibes, instead of sound minds.

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Renton

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 6299

Posted: Jun. 28, 2012 - 3:54 PM ET #6

RIMM will be releasing earnings today after the close of markets.

Currently trading at $9.13 nearing todays closing.

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Jun. 28, 2012 - 4:08 PM ET #7

Probably going to be ugly but what matters more than the numbers is what they say about future quarters.

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Renton

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 6299

Posted: Jun. 28, 2012 - 5:52 PM ET #8

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Probably going to be ugly but what matters more than the numbers is what they say about future quarters.

Very ugly, a loss of 37 cents per share, or 192 million operating loss.

This is a big miss as analysts were expecting a 3 cent loss per share for the quarter.

The CEO said he expects the next quarter to be the third quarter in a row of losses for the company.

RIMM also announced that it will cut 5,000 jobs globally.

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Jun. 28, 2012 - 6:30 PM ET #9

Looks like the loss was plenty of inventory write down, while cash flows werent as bad.

With 2B in cash and no debt, they are getting into takeover price range now.

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Rush51

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 7966

Posted: Jun. 28, 2012 - 8:35 PM ET #10

With a market cap. near $5B, I'm not sure they have $3B in assets and intellectual property worth paying for.

Even with their sizable piggybank, they seem to be dying a death of a thousand papercuts.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them drop another 50% by year's end. Once you get into single-digit territory as they are now, that can happen very quickly.

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jaxfan11

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 4

Posted: Jun. 29, 2012 - 1:15 AM ET #11

I agree this will go lower. I feel there is no takeover in the near future and RIMM will dip to the $7 price.

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jaxfan11

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 4

Posted: Jun. 29, 2012 - 1:20 AM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by jaxfan11:

I agree this will go lower. I feel there is no takeover in the near future and RIMM will dip to the $7 price.

After hours is now below $8. Did not see this before I posted above reply.

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cave0707

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 1509

Posted: Jun. 29, 2012 - 5:21 PM ET #13

Jeezus H ... this horse's legs are broken. Time to put her down. Maybe a microsoft partnership using their Windows 8 OS for their mobile phones instead of their own. I doubt their knight n shining armor blackberry 10 will save their day. A company known for zero innovation the last several years is counting on a Kirk Gibson, 1988 World Series Game 1 'sayonara' homerun with their blackberry 10 is just a streeeeeetch.

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Rush51

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 7966

Posted: Jun. 29, 2012 - 9:50 PM ET #14

Hard to believe this company had 50% of the smartphone market just 4 years ago. ...

This is the kind of volatility you get in tech land. Yesterday's winners can quickly become tomorrow's losers.

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