I by no means am supporting an investment in the Company, don't know enough about it, but I'm just not seeing a huge BK risk here.
Strong positive operating cash flows each of the last three years, not a very capital intensive business, they've been consistently paying down debt over the past 3 years, they seem to have some room on the covenants, and they were actually just able to refinance earlier this year.
Not the cleanest balance sheet, questionable industry, but the stock does seem to have a bit of momentum behind it. The vote against the reverse stock split is a non-issue. It was only an issue when the stock was trading below a $1, not a reason in itself not to invest.
I by no means am supporting an investment in the Company, don't know enough about it, but I'm just not seeing a huge BK risk here.
Strong positive operating cash flows each of the last three years, not a very capital intensive business, they've been consistently paying down debt over the past 3 years, they seem to have some room on the covenants, and they were actually just able to refinance earlier this year.
Not the cleanest balance sheet, questionable industry, but the stock does seem to have a bit of momentum behind it. The vote against the reverse stock split is a non-issue. It was only an issue when the stock was trading below a $1, not a reason in itself not to invest.
You need to be careful with Yahoo financial info. I know you know this, but you've gotta go with sec.gov for latest filings. They already filed 10 March 2012 10-Q, so you have 3 more months of info.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/58361/000005836112000028/lee10q2012q2.htm
I agree with all you said in terms of interest expense being high, debt being high, margins not being great, etc. I just don't see the bankruptcy risk (at least near-term). If they hadn't been able to refinance, would have been a huge risk, them being able to re-finance significantly helped their liquidity.
Even backing out the working capital fluctuations, it is still pretty strong from an operating cash flow standpoint. I don't see depreciation expense add back as anything negative when evaluating cash flows (especially in the context of potential bankruptcy). Free cash flow is also pretty good with minimal cap ex.
Obviously a lot of risk in the stock, but that's why its got an $84 million market cap. I wouldn't dive into it, but I could see a slight argument for it, if you believe in the industry (which I just don't).
Established in 1995,
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