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Elliot wave

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jun. 24, 2014 - 12:32 PM ET #1

I am a big proponent of Elliot Wave Theory. Although, a lot of trader's don't believe in it or feel it is a hassle to try and get the right count. I personally use a lot of different sentiment readings in my day trading. I think we have one more move up in wave 3 before we have a larger pullback in wave 4. I have been saying we will see a 6%-8% correction in the indices. I will give it 3-5 weeks before I start accumulating monthly puts. I got stopped out of my vxx. I will look to re-enter soon in August and September 33 calls. In a few weeks I will buy some weekly's. Good luck trading everyone..

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jun. 24, 2014 - 1:12 PM ET #2

trade the chinese stocks for a quick short term trade, any pull back in the next couple days buy the dips. weekly's and july's. ZPIN, JD,JMEI, BIDU, DANG.. Also buy PCYC end of the week. good luck everyone.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jun. 24, 2014 - 1:13 PM ET #3

momo's have gone up, solar has gone up, we need the chinese stocks to rise, before we get our pullback.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jun. 24, 2014 - 5:00 PM ET #4

wait for the pullback. Thursday morning should be a good buying op or Wednesday before the close. look to buy aapl for the end of the month rally. We are about to take off...

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 1, 2014 - 1:59 PM ET #5

killing it today. Sold in to this rally. Still holding some longs.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 1, 2014 - 2:01 PM ET #6

sold 90% of longs today.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 1, 2014 - 6:47 PM ET #7

The stock market is like sex. It feels the best right before it ends...

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 1, 2014 - 6:57 PM ET #8

VXX is getting interesting along with spy and IWM puts. Large sell programs at 17000 DOW. I will wait and see what happens here. Life is good - remember to breatheeeeeeeee.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 1, 2014 - 7:13 PM ET #9

Not playing to the short side just yet. I still have my 10% of longs..

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 3, 2014 - 11:24 AM ET #10

Stay Focused... googl wait for a bigger pullback. $580-$585 it is going to $600+.. RETAIL CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO RISE.. be careful here.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 11:46 AM ET #11

s&P sept mini futures - 1966.25. We will see if we get below that. I will buy googl july 18 calls, if we don't.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 11:49 AM ET #12

I am trading less as I am waiting for a pullback and will position myself to go long vxx and short spy and iwm in the coming weeks.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 11:52 AM ET #13

a pullback is not over night. Especially a correction of 4%-8%, it will take weeks and we will have multiple opportunities to add to our short. I am still playing the long side (certain stocks - such as googl)

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 11:55 AM ET #14

and aapl

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 5:28 PM ET #15

bought googl and aapl today. higher low - esu 1967.25

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 5:37 PM ET #16

These are short term trades. As I will be looking to short in the coming weeks. HUGE 22.6 million bet/hedge this morning - August 1975 Puts - 10k block.

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Raiders22

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 24729

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 6:17 PM ET #17

There is some validity to this. Especially if you value the psychology part of a trader, etc. But I think you should use it as just an additional tool and not stand alone. Are you trading based strictly on this? How long have you been doing it and what type of success have you had? To me there is a lot to be said for technicals but the tricky part with Elliot is figuring out the wave and seeing a pattern, etc. Have you studied other methods or just prefer this one?

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 7:26 PM ET #18

I don't specifically use Elliot because it is limited. I use a mixture of trading divergences/traditional TA / Elliot and game theory (using my prop charts/sentiment readings) for 90% of my trades. It all depends on the trade. Sometimes I trade simply off divergences/sentiment. I don't make the claim that there is only one way to trade. I will try to break down my thought process. One thing I have learned is if you trade specifically using traditional TA - you will not be profitable. Black box/algos trading has changed the game completely. The hardest trade for the last several years has been to buy and hold (this will change and my trading strategy will also evolve). Hedge funds, big institutions have been missing out on this rally for the last several years. You should check their overall returns compared to the S&P, it is horrendous. So no one believes, therefore the market will go up. But we are going up on low volume you might say - Volume doesn't play as big a role anymore because volume has moved to options and futures and away from equities (fact). This is MY thought process and has been for the last 2-3 years. It is still my thought process so I am still buying dips and I am waiting for the sentiment to change. One thing that has recently changed and it is changing the way I trade moving forward - RETAIL CONFIDENCE IS RISING.

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Raiders22

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 24729

Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 9:49 PM ET #19

Why is buy and hold hard? It has been the easiest to do the last few years? I am not sure what you mean by this? Or you mean just for you in particular?

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 8, 2014 - 11:32 AM ET #20

For most traders... It has been the hardest thing to do. most option traders have not been buying and holding. Imagine rolling your options in PCLN, GOOG (before the split), TSLA, I can go on and name thousands of other stocks. 95% of traders missed this last may/june rally and most of the 2013 rally's.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 8, 2014 - 12:01 PM ET #21

oh, I got stopped out of googl this AM. Still holding aapl. Might add some aapl here. check out the TRIN - FEAR is setting in.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 8, 2014 - 12:27 PM ET #22

ES 1948-1950 reversal. Stay scared...

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Raiders22

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 24729

Posted: Jul. 8, 2014 - 7:48 PM ET #23

Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:

For most traders... It has been the hardest thing to do. most option traders have not been buying and holding. Imagine rolling your options in PCLN, GOOG (before the split), TSLA, I can go on and name thousands of other stocks. 95% of traders missed this last may/june rally and most of the 2013 rally's.

I am confused by what you mean I guess. Most people got in the stocks and were certainly not on the sidelines during the bull market in stocks. That is part of the reason for the bull actually.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 9, 2014 - 12:26 PM ET #24

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

I am confused by what you mean I guess. Most people got in the stocks and were certainly not on the sidelines during the bull market in stocks. That is part of the reason for the bull actually.

I have to completely disagree. When you say most people who are you talking about? Institutions/hedge funds/ retail? Who? I will guarantee you most people did not get in and are sitting on the sidelines or sold early and have missed the majority of this bull run. This is the MAIN reason we are having this run. When you see Euphoria that's when you sell. Retail Confidence is finally on the rise. We aren't completely there yet but we will have a pullback. 6%-8% is relatively small and is an intermediate top.

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Caper03

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 411

Posted: Jul. 9, 2014 - 2:13 PM ET #25

check this article that was published today. I have been saying this for years. https://www.seeitmarket.com/low-volume-signaling-end-bull-market-13669/

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Elliot wave

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