Week 14 - Good matchups

do we know what coach Sig does with a playoff game ahead? Do we know what Indy does laying 4tds + to a big 10 school and rival?  This isn¡¯t Charlotte and it Western Illinois whom they layed -28 points to early in the season.  This is rival Purdue.  You know this but I think favorite betters here are ignoring or misunderstanding the line. 

I do my torturing of which side to go when I first make a list of what I call 'inviting lines' after comparing teams and results + strengths and weaknesses.....then consider next game, last game ....head to head....importance of game ...etc to either toss or polish some other ideas while I wait for a line

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

 I get the picture about you and what you do because you post a thread.  The other peeps in the thread that post one comment and hit and run, I have very little respect for.  Not because they dont know what they are doing, but they have no history on record.   

AS for this game with you.  I got the far inferior team as it looks.  Purdue's schedule has been tough.  The Purdue lines have been difficult for them which makes them appear worse.  The Indiana lines have been fairly easy which makes them appear better.  

I want Indiana to skip this game and prepare for the playoff.  I want nobody to like them heading forward in to the playoff.  I love good teams that people have trust issues with and Indiana can provide questions in the next game if they are flat this week.  

Will this happen ?  Doesn't look like it but , their ats cover momentum the books have curtailed.  That could be a good thing for Purdue.

  Now I have put a lot of time into a game that is far down my list but since it is Indiana people want to make a point.  Me?, just another game I bet

By the way have a great holiday. 

best to you this week Thirst 

Cheers 

Wahoo, thanks pal. Been a rough year for you and me at times but brotherhood of football makes things fun  and exciting to look forward to

Spottie, thanks. Day off for me and the next 5 to get festive/watch football 

Got knocked out of $4000 pool for Survivor (now only 3 left for pot) by Washington losing to a fixed game vs Dallas and if you look at the box score in the 3rd/4th Q you will see it....especially 4th Q! lol. Too bad it was Cooper Rush and an egregiously bad Dallas defence all of a sudden making Jaden Daniels and co look like freshmen in college in their own building on both sides of the ball. 

Watching mostly NCAAF now until bowl silence period and then back to NFL. Will watch my Buffalo Bills any time though because of Josh Allen and their coach Sean McDermott....good men who will go through a wall for the other and I think they get it done this year? Just hope they are healthy ....but they will have to overcome Xavier Worthy-Mahomes show and with Pacheco back at RB + a nasty big game defense

@spottie2935

I hate ND and think their schedule has been a joke . No one knows more about ND or USC than me .  According to Sagarin , ND sos is 67th while Georgia is 4, ESPN has similar . USC is not a well coached team at , quite the contrary. USC is very soft and most likely lose as ND will wear them down, plus the new USC qb is a turnover waiting to happen . It pains me to say it but this a ND play or no play at all. The under is probably best play .

ND will than sit home with no championship game while the men play and beat up each other. ND will go into playoffs healthy and rested which is typical ND getting all the advantages , hopefully they get Georgia and smacked around. 

Nice! GL 

Far too many people not looking at the data AND preseason ratings of players for Notre Dame.

They have  a stronger schedule than Georgia, Clemson, Colorado, Arizona St., Cincy, Nebraska, Washington, SMU, Utah, Texas Tech, B.C., Pitt....I can continue if you want?

Their Strength of Schedule rating is 28th presently, and USC is 18th

Now have a look at USC and see if they beat up some teams that are similar in ratings and compare to Notre Dame. I think you start there.

I have N.D in my top 4 now given what I am seeing and statistically......and I have watched Texas 4x and I believe ND vs Texas is a tight ballgame and potentially, an Irish win.

No way do the Irish lose to USC and their coach is fabulous and has them laser focused.

You want to sing the praises of USC....go ahead, but please, the argument of Notre Dame having their way is b.s. because they are independent and will travel anywhere and their strength of schedule indicates this. Their defense is a rock! And Riley Leonard has come into his own with his excellent offensive line that can open holes and protect if he needs to pass or run and you better not let his legs get going because he runs a lot and is big like Josh Allen.......

Now....here is the shocker are you ready?

Ohio State had Riley Leonard and Cam Ward at the top of their lists for recruiting out of the portal!! And Riley came to ND because of the culture and togetherness and the coach out of LSU who turned Jaden Daniels who is shattering records in the NFL for a rookie......into a powerhouse combo of great runner and thrower with accuracy and on time

SEC stinks this year....wtf??? Georgia down 17-0 and GTECH earned all of their points with skill and desire + excellent play designs...

Georgia cannot match GTECH motivation and Kirby thinks he can sneak in a vanilla play calling package so that he does not give away anything for the next big game. Its going to cost him. If that is not the case, lets be honest here..... speed and size may not be enough anymore in NCAAF . Heart in your key positional players might be the intangible going forward. Alabama, Texas and Georgia far outweigh everyone else when it comes to recruiting size and speed but its not delivering like it used to.

Georgia can still win this game but get some popcorn for the second half. 

And for some of you who badmouth the Irish.....they beat GTECH by 14 and GTECH played them hard. I watched it. Irish are a legit Top 5 team 

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

 Okie St - Colorado Over 63.5  

Miss St - Ole Miss Over 61.5 

GTECH +19.5 x 1U << not losing this with 1Q to go and GTECH threatening again 

Kansas ML

UNDER Michigan 43.5

S.Carolina +3 and might go ML later in the week

B.C -3.5 x 1U

Indiana -27.5

Texas -5.5

Texas UNDER 48.5 will be TEASED 

Teaser Time (glad I waited): Cold weather is wrecking totals I noticed 

7 PT - $30 per 4 way pays profit $63 each win

>>> KEY COMBO #1  >  Texas UNDER 56.5  with Michigan St Under 54  with Notre Dame -0.5 with:

a. Michigan Over 35.5

b. Vanderbilt +17.5

c. Michigan St. +5

d. Arizona St Under 60.5

e. Missouri +4

f. Penn St Under 57

g. Oklahoma +13

h. Texas AM +12.5

HALF UNIT PLAY > Notre Dame -0.5 with Rutgers +9 with Over 40 Mich St  with Penn St Under 57

Huh.... Indiana is pitching a shutout by 4 TDs and its not even halftime

Huh....Notre Dame won by 2 TDs

Huh... Penn St going to finish in the Top 4

B.C. rolled....

4 Teams I know someone likes to fade their lines because the line is ' not right '  Hope you did not lose money my friend. Nice to be on the winning side this weekend 

Wacky season but the calm and consistent coaches are gonna finish top 4 while all the major talent grabbers with 4-5 star alphas and tv presence and pundit lovers are scraping to get into the playoff or perhaps missing it

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

 Okie St - Colorado Over 63.5  NO

Miss St - Ole Miss Over 61.5   NO

GTECH +19.5 x 1U << not losing this with 1Q to go and GTECH threatening again 

Kansas ML         NO

UNDER Michigan 43.5   

S.Carolina +3 and might go ML later in the week  

B.C -3.5 x 1U   

Indiana -27.5  

Texas -5.5        

SIDES/TOTALS = +2.5 UNITS

Teasers:

7 PT - $30 per 4 way pays profit $63 each win

>>> KEY COMBO #1  >  Texas UNDER 56.5  with Michigan St Under 54  with Notre Dame -0.5 with:

a. Michigan Over 35.5

b. Vanderbilt +17.5

c. Michigan St. +5

d. Arizona St Under 60.5

e. Missouri +4

f. Penn St Under 57

g. Oklahoma +13

h. Texas AM +12.5

 - $240

HALF UNIT PLAY > Notre Dame -0.5 with Rutgers +9 with Over 40 Mich St  with Penn St Under 57  

+$130

My parlays in local plays had UNDER TEXAS 49.5 with Indiana -28.5 with Under Orlando MLS with all kinds of plays ...... $10 each and I went 18-7 > these paid out very nice! Made just over $1000 so on the year....I am only down about $400 now which is a big climb back the last couple of weeks being down just over $2000 which I haven't done for about 6-7 years

PHEW !!

New Rankings of Strength/Positioning to Win For the College Playoff after Week #14: - darkened have best chance based on bracket and style of play vs their opponent

 1. Ohio St  <<  Ducks can't beat them 2x (Ryan Day cannot win big one though?) with second game on neutral field and as crazy as it sounds, their pathway through Oregon is going to still happen and come one game sooner now  as an 8 seed most likely

2. Texas < will have to beat a couple of strong teams to get to Final and hope they play Irish in a humdinger AND they would be advised to use Arch Manning like they did vs TexAM on runs and the occasional throw

3. Notre Dame << might have easiest pathway to final 4 they have a shot at beating Texas if they go to #7 in next bracket change 

-if you watched the game vs USC, Riley Leonard dominated with his legs or Love did at RB and Leonard is going to be a force in any game where a defense is perhaps too aggressive like Josh Allen does to many teams in the NFL

4. Oregon << likely Final 8 match with Ohio St. and believe they can beat Alabama or Penn St if they get get past Buckeyes and therefore are getting a raw deal but have the talent to win it all (Gabriel is the best thrower of all in the Playoffs and Howard is pretty good. If Ewers is healthy, he would be up there too)

5. Georgia << might end up playing Texas a third time!!! to get to Notre Dame or they lose to Texas defense

6. Penn St. < if they can get through Bama, they have a good shot to face Oregon or Ohio St to get to final game

7. SMU < could give the Irish some trouble but Irish just wear on you with their run game from Love and Riley

8. Indiana < would have to knock off Georgia and Texas to get through (too much?)

9. Alabama is just so inconsistent but talented.... tough to know where to place themIf Mississippi get in, will have to move them up but they are not the same team with so many key injuries out

10. Arizona St  < with their run game and timely defense, they could give the Irish some trouble but not Texas most likely

----------------------------------------------------    

11.  Tennessee < tough first round matchup coming

12. Boise is the weakest team among all possibilities in my opinion and I follow all their games online or have watched a couple

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13. South Carolina

15. Texas AM

16. Florida

17. Michigan

18. LSU  

19. Clemson

20. Louisville/ Miami/Colorado/Illinois/Iowa St/ Missouri/ BYU  (round out Top 25 best)