Observations and Week 14 Ponderings

Wow, where has the time gone? We are down to the last week of the regular season, and it's my favorite week of the year; RIVALRY WEEK! Chaos reigned supreme in Week 13 with a few top teams going down in flames, and a few more getting major scares. This week will determine which teams play in their respective conference title games, while the CFP lineup continues to take shape. 

MAC

Tuesday 

Toledo (-8) at AKRON - Rockets were eliminated from playing in the MAC title game after being dominated at home by Ohio last week, 24-7. They're just 2-6 ATS as chalk, including 0-3 on the road, and I have to question their motivation here in a meaningless game against an Akron team that's 2-9, but still trying.

BUFFALO (-21) vs Kent St. - It's the Bulls or nobody in this tragedy, over the hapless Golden Flashes.

Friday

BOWLING GREEN (-3) vs Miami OH - Winner of this one will play for the conference championship next week. Both coaches have been around for a while, and Chuck Martin has won three of four meetings over Scot Loeffler, with the Redhawks winning all three at home, including a 27-0 shutout over the Bee Gees a year ago. Both teams are coming in hot; six straight for Miami OH (4-2 ATS, 6-0 ITS) and five in a row for BGSU (3-1-1 ATS). Flip a coin in this one.

OHIO (-14', up from. -14) vs Ball St. - Bobcats outgained Toledo 360 total yards to 195, and rushed for 231 yards (4.2 YPR), holding the Rockets to just 27 (1.1). If they win here, which they should, they'll play for the MAC title. Ohio is 5-0 SU, and 4-0 ATS and ITS at home (+145.4 YPG), winning by an average score of 32-12. Lean to Ohio U. on Senior Day, over the 3-8 Cardinals.

Saturday 

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-6') vs Eastern Michigan - Winner goes bowling and the loser goes home for the holidays. Both teams have been stuck on five wins for a while. EMU has lost four straight (1-3 ATS), and WMU has dropped their last three, SU and ATS. Eastern has won four of the last five meetings, but lost at home a year ago, 45-21. Gun to my head I'd probably take the EMUs. 

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-13) vs Central Michigan - Chippewas (4-7) have won four of the last five, including a 37-31 home win a year ago. Huskies have clinched a bowl bid, and MAY be motivated to send their seniors out with a winning record.

AAC

Thanksgiving Day

TULANE (-14, up from -13) vs Memphis - Both teams are off a bye, and the Tigers are looking to avenge a pair of ten point losses in the last two meetings. They're certainly capable, scoring at least 20 points in 38 straight games! The Green Wave will be a tough nut to crack though. They've won nine straight games (7-1 ATS), since a 1-2 start, and have outscored their last three opponents, 121-9. That includes a 35-0 whitewash at Navy two weeks ago, in which they held the Midshipmen to just 113 total yards. That's created some value in this line, and Tulane will have to avoid peeking ahead to next week's showdown with Army for the AAC title. Too many points here. Lean to Memphis.

Friday 

Navy (-1) at ECU - The Pirates are hot and the Midshipmen are not. ECU is seeking revenge from a pair of losses in the last two meetings, and have won four straight (3-1 ATS, 4-0 ITS), including a 40-28 upset at North Texas last week. Navy has lost three of their last four (SU, ATS and ITS), including that loss to Tulane, in which they were outgained by 245 total yards. But they're off a bye and hoping to regroup.

Saturday 

ARMY (-7') vs Utsa - Road team has won the last four meetings, including Army's 37-29 win at San Antonio a year ago. The Black Knights were humbled by Notre Dame last week, 49-14, and will have to shake that loss off in a hurry. The Roadrunners are playing their best ball of the season, having won their last three and four of their last five (4-1 ATS).

North Texas (-10') at TEMPLE - The Mean Green got off to a 5-1 start but have flatlined since, going 0-5 and still needing that sixth win for bowl eligibility. The Owls have played their best football at home, and what sweeter revenge from last year's 45-14 loss than to deny North Texas a bowl bid on Senior Day.

Usf (-5) at RICE - Bulls won last year's meeting, 42-29, and they became bowl eligible with last week's 63-30 rout of Tulsa. They haven't beaten a team yet that has a winning record, and they're not playing one this week either. They should cruise if they're motivated.

CHARLOTTE (-3) vs Uab - Nothing to get excited about here.

Fau (-1') at TULSA - Or here either.