Observations and Week 13 Ponderings

At this point in the season there are a number of teams eliminated from bowl consideration. Some teams are still playing hard, like Air Force, and some have thrown in the towel, like Florida St. Some are playing for bowl eligibility, and some are already bowl eligible but are out of their respective conference races. Identifying the motivated teams is key in these last two weeks of the regular season. Also, please note that "ITS" is short for "in the stats".

MAC

Tuesday 

Akron (-10, down from -11) at KENT ST. - The Golden Flashes are looking at 0-12. Horrible doesn't begin to describe this team. But do you really wanna lay double digits with the Zips? A team that hasn't covered as a road favorite since 2017? A team that's 1-8 vs FBS foes this year, including 0-5 on the road? Yeah, me neither.

Western Michigan (-6', down from -8) at CENTRAL MICHIGAN - The Broncos need one more win for bowl eligibility, and have won the last two meetings. The Chippewas' season is essentially over, but they may be inspired on Senior Day. Both teams suffered blowout losses on the road a week ago. No thanks.

MIAMI-OH (-3, up from -2') vs Northern Illinois - The Redhawks are in a three way tie atop the MAC standings, and have won five straight (5-0 ITS), since their 1-4 start. They absolutely have to take care of biz on Senior Day with a road trip at conference co-leader, and arch rival, Bowling Green on deck. NIU is bowl eligible, but two games back in the conference race and may be more motivated next week hosting rival Central Michigan.  Slight lean to MIAMI-OH.

Wednesday 

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2', up from -1') vs Buffalo - The Bulls have won two straight to become bowl eligible, but need a lot of help to make it to the MAC title game, and they're just 1-6 ITS (-58.6 YPG) in their last seven games. The Emus are on a three game skid, needing just one more win to qualify for a bowl and this is probably their best chance to get it.

TOLEDO (-2', up from -1') vs Ohio - This is a rematch of the MAC title game from two years ago, won by the Rockets, 17-7. Ohio has won five of its' last six games, including the last three in blowout fashion (3-0 ATS), and are part of that three way first place tie. Toledo is a game back but has a path to the conference title game, providing they win out. Tough call.

Saturday 

Bowling Green (-11', up down from -13) at BALL ST. - The Bee Gees ended their 0-4-1 ATS skid as chalk with a dominant 31-13 win over WMU, to remain tied with Ohio and Miami-OH for first place. They've got a huge showdown with the Redhawks on deck, and will have to be careful here against a Cardinals team that's 6-1 ATS as a dog in their last seven tries, and have covered five straight in that role. However, Ball St. fired head coach Mike Neu, after last week's 51-48 OT loss at Buffalo ended their bowl hopes.

GL this weekend

@mjm1012

 Backatcha brother! 

ACC

Thursday 

GEORGIA TECH (-9, up from -7') vs NC State - Both teams are off a bye. QB Haynes King returned from a shoulder injury to lead the Yellowjackets to a huge 28-23 upset win at home over Miami-FL. They shredded the 'Canes defense for 271 yards rushing (5.6 YPR), and with the win became bowl eligible. The Wolfpack were denied their sixth win, and bowl eligibility, by a tough Duke defense that held them to just 263 yards of total offense in a 29-19 loss. There's value baked into this line. Slight lean to NC State.

Saturday 

North Carolina (-3', up from a pick em) at BOSTON COLLEGE - The Tar Heels' 31-24 win over Wake Forest was their third win in a row and made them eligible for a bowl. BC has gotten a spark from backup QB Grayson James who led a rally past Syracuse two weeks ago, and gave SMU a scare last week, before losing, 38-28. But the Eagles, who are a win away from bowl eligibility, are 0-8 ITS (-84 YPG) in their last eight games.

MIAMI-FL (-24) vs Wake Forest - The Hurricanes have been playing with fire since ACC play began (2-4 ATS) and finally got burned at Georgia Tech. Now they have no wiggle room if they want to play for the conference title. Wake needs wins in each of their last two games to reach a bowl game. 

SYRACUSE (-10', down from -11) vs UConn - Both teams are bowl eligible and UConn is off a bye, but the Huskies are 0-3 vs Power Four opponents. 'Cuse rolled to a 48-14 rout in the last meeting two years ago.

Smu (-9', down from -10) at VIRGINIA - The Mustangs sit alone atop the ACC standings and control their own destiny. They've survived scares in two of their last three games, including last week's win over Boston College. The Cavaliers committed five first half turnovers and were down 35-0 midway through the third quarter of a 35-14 beatdown at Notre Dame. QB Anthony Colandrea was replaced by Tony Muskett after throwing three picks.

CALIFORNIA (-14, up from -13') vs Stanford - Cal has won and covered the last three meetings between these two, and need a win here to secure a bowl berth. But they'll have to play better than they did last week when two Fernando Mendoza interceptions in the first quarter put them in a hole they couldn't crawl out of in a 33-25 loss at home to Syracuse. Stanford had been largely noncompetitive in their last six games, and is out of the bowl picture, but scored 17 unanswered points to stun Louisville 38-35! This is the first Big Game to be played as ACC opponents and it could go either way. Lean to Stanford.

LOUISVILLE (-8) vs Pittsburgh -  The Cardinals showed a complete lack of discipline in the waning moments of their loss at Stanford. 20 yards in penalties, including an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, put the Cardinal in position to kick the winning field goal as time ran out. The Panthers played without injured starting QB Eli Holstein, but backup Nate Yarnell passed for 350 yards in Pittsburgh's near upset of Clemson, despite being sacked eight times. The teams have split the last two.

Virginia Tech (-3) at DUKE - Both teams are off a bye. The Hokies have lost two straight, including a 24-14 loss at home to Clemson, in which they were held to just 228 total yards and 40 on the ground. They need one more win to become bowl eligible, but face another tough defense in that of the Blue Devils. Duke is 15-3 SU and 12-3 ATS at home over the last two plus years, including 5-1 ATS as a dog. Plus, Manny Diaz is 10-1 ATS as a single digit dog in his career. Virginia Tech has their work cut out for them in this one. Lean to Duke on Senior Day.

AAC

Friday 

UTSA (-16') vs Temple - The Roadrunners are making a late push for a bowl game and playing their best ball of the season, averaging nearly 44 points a game while winning three of their last four. All three of those wins have come at home, where they haven't lost all year. The Owls are winless on the road and playing out the string.

Saturday 

Rice (-6', down from -7) at UAB - Nothing to see here. Both teams will be home for the holidays.

Charlotte (-2') at FAU - see above. 

USF (-17, up from -16) vs Tulsa - The Bulls have five wins, all by at least ten points, and none of the teams they've beaten have a winning record. Neither do the two teams left on their schedule. Bowl eligibility seems like a certainty.

NORTH TEXAS (-2', up from -1) vs Ecu - These two are headed in opposite directions. The Pirates have won three straight, albeit against the dregs of the AAC, and earned a bowl bid with a 38-31 win at Tulsa last Thursday. The Mean Green have dropped four straight against much tougher competition (Memphis, Tulane, Army and resurgent UTSA). Very slight lean to North Texas to earn that elusive sixth win. 

Notre Dame (-14, down from -16') vs Army at Yankee Stadium - The Black Knights are off a bye and will have had two weeks to prepare for their toughest game of the season. The Irish played Navy about a month ago, and rolled to a 51-14 win, taking advantage of five turnovers. Curious that Notre Dame is favored by more this week than they were against the Midshipmen. Army is at least a TD better than Navy, mainly because they have a much better defense. Bryson Daily should return to form in this one after missing the Air Force game and being less than 100% at North Texas. This game could have major playoff ramifications for both teams. I liked this game better at +16', but still I'm leaning Army.

BIG Ten

Friday 

MICHIGAN ST. (-13', up from 13) vs Purdue - The Spartans need to win their last two to go bowling. The Boilermakers can't wait for this season to be over. This is a big number but it's Sparty or nobody.

Saturday 

Iowa (-6', down from 7') at MARYLAND - Hawkeyes are off a bye after dropping one at UCLA, 20-17, two weeks ago, in a game that wasn't as close the final score would indicate (-150 total yards). To make matters worse they lost QB Brendan Sullivan to a sprained ankle in that game, so it's back to Cade McNamara. Iowa is already bowl eligible and doesn't play near as well on the road as they do at home. But the Terrapins are spiraling downward, having lost five of their last six, including their last three. 

OHIO ST. (-13, up from -12) vs Indiana - The Buckeyes have won the last 29 meetings, but the Hoosiers' bye came at a great time, a week after hanging on to beat Michigan, 20-15, and have had two weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes. That's a huge advantage for Curt Cignetti, who I think is a better coach than Ryan Day anyway. Also, a lot has been made of Indiana's strength of schedule, but against three common opponents (Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan St.) they had a cumulative 528 more total yards, to Ohio St.'s 420. They've outscored opponents 94-13 in the first quarter and 118-26 in the fourth. They have been relentless. Granted, the Buckeyes are their toughest opponent all year for sure, but count out Curt Cignetti's crew at your peril. I like Indiana.

Illinois (-1, flipped from +1) at RUTGERS - Both teams are going bowling and both teams are off impressive wins. Trying to pick between these two is like splitting hairs. History sez take the Illini, but they haven't met since 2021.

MICHIGAN (-11', down from -13) vs Northwestern - The Wolverines are off a bye and desperately need this one to become bowl eligible with Ohio St. on deck. They've settled on Davis Warren at QB, and he hasn't been awful, but they're 0-4 as favorites of six or more. Wildcats are always at the top of the academic progress rankings, so even a loss won't end their bowl hopes.

Penn St. (-12, up from -10') at MINNESOTA - This is a  dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions, on the road again, off a 49-10 romp at hapless Purdue, with the Golden Gophers having two weeks to prepare, and licking their wounds following a 26-19 upset loss at Rutgers. Minnesota is bowl eligible and is 6-2 ATS. Penn St. needs a win here to stay in the playoff mix, but there's value in this line based on last week's results. Leaning Minnesota here.

NEBRASKA (-2') vs Wisconsin - The Badgers have won the last nine meetings (3-5-1 ATS), all as chalk. Now they come into this one as a short dog, a week after throwing a scare into #1 Oregon. That 16-13 loss to the Ducks was their third straight, and OC Phil Longo was let go. The Cornhuskers have lost their last four. Both teams need one more win to go bowling. Pick your poison.

Usc (-4') at UCLA - The Trojans are looking to avenge last season's 38-20 loss at the Coliseum, and the road team has won the last four meetings. Lincoln Riley benched QB Miller Moss after he threw three picks at UDub two weeks ago, and handed the reins to Jayden Maiava.The move paid off vs Nebraska, as Maiava shook off an early pick six passing for 259 yards and three TDs in a 28-20 win. The Bruins saw their three game win streak snapped with a 31-19 loss at Washington. With Maiava at QB, I'm leaning USC here.

MWC/PAC 2

Friday 

Unlv (-7', down from -8) at SAN JOSE ST. - The Spartans have won the last four meetings SU and ATS, and gave Boise a big scare last week before falling 42-21. It was San Jose St.'s first loss at home this season. This is a must win for the Rebels, if they harbor any hopes of playing for the MWC title, and they still have a slim shot at the G5 playoff bid (but they need a lot of help). This one won't be easy though. San Jose St. WRs Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart have combined for over 2200 receiving yards this year, and had nearly 300 yards vs Boise. UNLV figures to have their hands full. Lean to San Jose St.

Saturday 

UTAH ST. (-4, up from -3') vs San Diego St. - Both teams are out of the bowl picture, but if ya wanna dabble, ya might wanna do a weather check on this one closer to gameday. 

Boise St. (-22', down from -24) at WYOMING - The Broncos have won the last seven meetings, but the Cowboys have covered five of those. Boise St. hits the road again following a 42-21 win at San Jose St. that was closer than the final score would indicate. They were torched for 446 yards through the air and trailed 14-0 early, but went on a 42-7 run for the win. A weather check might be in order for this one too on  Senior Day in Laramie.

Washington St. (-12', down from -14) at OREGON ST. - Whatever slim hopes the Cougars had of crashing the CFP party were flushed down the toilet after their 38-35 upset loss at New Mexico, where they allowed a whopping 360 yards rushing (7.3 YPR). Now they're on the road again vs a Beavers team that's in a major 0-5 SU, 0-6 ATS nosedive. No thanks.

FRESNO ST. (-3, down from -3') vs Colorado St. - The Bulldogs are off a bye and need one more win to qualify for a bowl game, but they've dropped two straight to Hawaii and Air Force and haven't looked good doing it. The Rams have won five straight and have covered seven in a row, and if they win their last two will be playing Boise for the MWC championship. Tough call in this one, but the line value is on Fresno.

NEVADA (-3, down from -3') vs Air Force - Both teams are out of bowl consideration, but both are still playing hard. Could go either way.

SEC

Saturday 

Ole Miss (-10) at FLORIDA - The Rebels are off a bye, following back to back blowout wins, 63-31 over Arkansas, and 28-10 over Georgia.They're outgaining SEC foes by about 95 yards a game (6-0 ITS). The Gators ended a five game losing streak to LSU with a 27-16 win, as DJ Lagway returned from a hamstring injury. Florida (5-1 ATS in their last six) needs one more win to go bowling, and will give it their all on Senior Day.

GEORGIA (-42, down from -43) vs UMass - The Bulldogs are in wait and see mode. This game should be a snooze fest.

TENNESSEE (-41', down from -42') vs Utep - The Volunteers came up short in Athens but are still in the SEC title mix. The Miners don't figure to put up much resistance in this one.

TEXAS (-20', up from -20) vs Kentucky - The Longhorns are just 2-4 ATS in SEC play, but even with the loss to Georgia they've outgained conference foes by nearly 136 yards a game. They should be plenty motivated to take care of business here, with Texas A&M on deck and a possible SEC title at stake. The Wildcats have been a major disappointment since the big upset win at Ole Miss, dropping their last four conference games and needing to win their last two to go bowling. You could probably fry an egg on Mark Stoops' ass right now. Lean to Texas on Senior Day.

ARKANSAS (-22) vs Louisiana Tech - The Razorbacks need just one more win for bowl eligibility, but La. Tech can't be taken lightly, as they're 4-0 ATS as a dog this year.

Missouri (-7', up from. -7) at MISSISSIPPI ST. - Mizzou is bowl eligible but out of the SEC race, and hits the road again after a tough 34-30 loss at South Carolina, that featured six lead changes. The Bulldogs are off a bye and playing out the string. They're 0-6 and -140 total yards a game vs SEC foes. Ugh.

Texas A&M (-2', down from -3') at AUBURN - it's ironic that the Aggies, tied for first place in the SEC with Texas, aren't even in the conversation right now about a CFP bid. The writing is on the wall. It's boom or bust. They absolutely have to win these last two games and AT LEAST get to the SEC title game. Auburn would like to avenge last season's 27-10 loss at College Station, but are they up to the task? It's Interesting that despite being 1-5 in SEC play they're averaging 92 more total yards a game, while A&M, at 5-1, is just +19.3 YPG. Be careful here.

Alabama (-13') at OKLAHOMA - I'm pumping the breaks on the Crimson Tide in this one. Since losing at Tennessee they've beaten an injury riddled Missouri team, 34-0, crushed an LSU team that seems to be coming apart at the seams, 42-13, and blew out FCS Mercer, 52-7. In those three games they had a 9-0 turnover advantage. The Sooners are off a bye after losing a wild game at Missouri, 30-23, and need one more win to be bowl eligible. They've been turnover prone in their last four SEC games, losing the ball 12 times compared to just three takeaways, and a repeat performance will lead to another 'Bama blowout. But when's the last time Boomer has been a double digit home dog? If they can just play a clean game........

LSU (-7', down from. -10) vs VANDERBILT - The Bayou Bengals are on a 0-3 SU and ATS nosedive, and Brian Kelly may be on the hot seat. It's not a good sign when he's seen yelling at the players and the players are yelling back at him. The Commodores are off a bye, a week after being dominated at home by a good South Carolina team, 28-7. But they're still a solid 6-1 ATS as a dog this year, with four outright wins! Even with the line drop, I'm leaning Vanderbilt here over dysfunctional LSU.

C-USA

Saturday 

JACKSONVILLE ST. (-6, up from -4') vs Sam Houston - The Bearkats look to avenge last seasons home loss, and have won 11 of their last 14 games as a FBS school. They've also covered five of their last six as a dog. But offensively they haven't been the same since Hunter Watson was injured in the WKU game. He's played in the last two games but points have been hard to come by. Jack St. has won six straight after a 0-3 start, but they struggled mightily in their last two. Both teams are in the mix for the C-USA title. Slight lean to Sam Houston.

LIBERTY (-1, flipped from +1) vs Western Kentucky - The Flames won last year's meeting, 42-29, enroute to the C-USA title, and both teams are in a four way scramble for conference honors this season. Liberty is just 2-6 ATS and isn't anywhere near the team they were a year ago. The Hilltoppers are off a shocking 12-7 upset loss at home vs Louisiana Tech, allowing 209 yards rushing on 49 carries. In fact, WKU has allowed an average of 220 yards on the ground (4.8 YPR) over their last four games and haven't been able to keep their offense on the field.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. (-3', down from -4) vs New Mexico St. - Not interested in this trashcan game. 

Fiu (-9, up from -8) at KENNESAW ST. - The Golden Panthers nearly pulled off the upset at Jack St. last week and now they go on the road to face an Owls team that's lost back to back overtime games. Credit goes to the Kennesaw St. players for their effort in spite of all the turmoil surrounding their team.

Sun Belt

Saturday 

James Madison (-7, down from -7') at APPALACHIAN ST. - This line seems a little short, but nothing comes easy for the Dukes on the Sun Belt road. After losing at ULM and at Georgia Southern earlier this season, JMU had its' hands full at Old Dominion last week, holding on for a 35-32 win. Not sure I wanna trust them to win two straight on the road, but with a win they're right back in the mix for a Sun Belt title. It's Senior Day for the Mountaineers, who are off a bye and needing to win their last two to go bowling.

ARKANSAS ST. (-2', down from -7) vs UL-Monroe - The Red Wolves have won and covered 14 straight meetings (!), but with them getting their sixth win last week, 27-20 at Georgia St., and becoming bowl eligible, the Warhawks would seem to have more motivation here, needing that sixth win to go bowling. Maybe that explains the huge line drop, unless there's an injury I'm unaware of. At any rate, ULM has lost four straight and are playing their fourth road game in five weeks. No thanks.

South Alabama (-22, down from -23') at SOUTHERN MISS - The Jaguars need just one more win to qualify for a bowl, after upsetting Louisiana last week, and they should get it here against a Golden Eagles team that's lost every FBS game they've played this year by double digits.

COASTAL CAROLINA (-2', up from -1') vs Georgia Southern - The Eagles laid an egg at home against Troy last week, losing 28-20, and were outgained by 195 total yards. The loss knocked them out of a first place tie with Marshall in the East Division, and into a second place tie with JMU. They cannot afford another loss, but the Chanticleers are looking to avenge a 38-28 setback from a year ago, and need one more win to go bowling.

LOUISIANA (-10, down from -11) vs Troy - The Ragin' Cajuns still lead the West Division by a game, despite being upset at home by South Alabama, 24-22. Louisiana trailed 24-3 at the break, and a frantic fourth quarter rally fell just short. They still control their own destiny, but they better be wary of a Trojans team that's off back to back upset wins over Coastal and Georgia Southern, despite already being eliminated from postseason play.

TEXAS ST. (-20, up from -16') vs Georgia St. - The Bobcats got the win they wanted last week, a 58-3 pounding of Southern Miss that clinched a bowl invitation. But clinching a winning season would be nice and the Panthers are playing out the string. Lean to Texas St.

OLD DOMINION (-2, up from pick em) vs Marshall - The Thundering Herd control their own destiny in the East Division. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS vs conference foes, but they're just 1-4-1 ITS, and were outgained by 137 total yards in a 31-19 win over Coastal Carolina. Despite rushing for only 35 yards in that game, they still are averaging 200.5 yards a game on the ground. The Monarchs need to win their last two to reach the postseason, but they've lost six straight to the Herd and it feels like the wrong team may be favored here. Lean to Marshall.