NCAA FB WEEK 0/1

Week 0:

Hawaii -27.5 (FD)

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage)  .5u

Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage)   .5u

Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage)  .5u

Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110


TEXAS STATE to win SBC +500 .33u
BOWLING GREEN to win MAC +700 .33u
EAST CAROLINA to win AAC +1600 .22u
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u
WMU to win the MAC +880 .33u

Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty

Great work duck, getting ahead of the lines early.

Thank you mate. Hope you have a great season. 

Yes sir¡­ appreciate your efforts.    

Nice looking card bud.  Blessings and Good Luck   

Excited that I will be participating in another podcast next week called ¡°The First Reed¡±. Available on Spotify. Will be discussing the wacky MAC in detail.

Will also be a participant in another episode of Lean Tossup Sports college football conference previews in early August, if you all are so inclined.

Couple nuggets in FCS for the notebook  

Mcneese + tarleton state over first number you see. Max that baby out. 8/24

If you find a line for No. Arizona + Lincoln University. Take NAU any number. -28. -38. -44. Doesn¡¯t matter.

Davidson should be a sizeable underdog @Georgetown 8/31 (Davidson in the non-scholarship FCS Pioneer Football League, Georgetown in the scholarship Patriot league) but George doesn¡¯t offer football scholarships so everyone there walks on or plays lacrosse. Minimal if any talent gap here. Look for a +14

Valparaiso @ Nor Iowa the talent gap will be huge. Please hang a -24.5

Hey step are those dark print picks UTSA,etc. .5u smaller or larger than all the others? Thanks 

@haymo

 They are only half unit plays because I was limited on the bet size at heritage sports. So because of the lack of liquidity on the plays with that particular side, I did bet the games at those numbers for max limits but they are not full bet sizes. It is in no way a reflection of my confidence level of the plays and if I wasnt limited I would have bet them for full unit plays, but I dont have interest in posting something that is not realistic for everyone to bet for a full unit if I could not bet it for a full unit. 

Now, if I could get some more liquidity with the UTSA and Syracuse plays at those numbers, I would probably play for slightly larger than 1 unit (1.25, 1.33 or 1.5u) 

THE CURRENT NUMBERS AVAILABLE AT HERITAGE ARE:

UTSA -20.5 -116

SYRACUSE -13.5 -128

JACKSONVILLE STATE -3.5 -102

***so they are still available if you want to get these numbers ***

_____________________________________________________________________________

everything below this line is NOT directed at the poster from post #58, but for everyone interested in moving toward betting profitability. 

Also: for those that might be new- 80%+ of my plays will be ONE UNIT plays. I typically bet the same amount (or very close to it) on every game. 10% might be .5-.66u plays (smaller plays), and 10% will be between 1.5-4 unit plays. Higher than 2 unit plays are rare, I just dont go "all in" or raise the units to artificially inflate profitability. Example, if you lose 10 One unit plays in a row, and then win a 20 unit, you are "up 10 units" while still being a shitty capper. (people who do this are often times not betting at all or betting $5.00 a game or something) and the accounting ends up getting ridiculous. I would avoid this or anyone else who every play is a 10 unit banger...avoid avoid avoid.  

Also: it will be soon happening where the goons and shit talkers will start to come out of the wood work and start criticizing lines or calling out lines that are "not real or not available"...Guys, ive been posting plays for 60 days now...getting out in front of the movement, and with legalization of betting in numerous states now + the books in antigua, everyone has multiple options... SHOP AROUND. The easiest and quickest way to improve as a sports bettor and start moving toward profiting off of this instead of it just being "something to do", is to use an odds comparison tool and get the best number or odds. You would be amazed on how much .02-.10 cents of juice will add up over the course of 100+ plays...could be the difference betweein winning 2 units or 12 units or 20 units at the end of the season. Shop around, get the best number, line, juiced odds, etc. Odds comparison tools are free and it requires very little effort to shop around. 

Thanks for all the info!

Amen to this Reverend Step . Kinda looks like we've both been preaching the

same sermon to the Forum the past couple of months about shopping for the

best lines and also for the best prices. I keep trying to tell em that the number

that they buy a play at directly affects their actual win probability on every bet

they make and the juice they choose to pay directly affects their profitability.

I tend to think only serious and experienced bettors actually care about these

concepts. Keep up the great work bud  

Week 0:

Hawaii -27.5 (FD)

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

Hawaii + 14.5 (everywhere)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage)  .5u

Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage)   .5u

Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage)  .5u

Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170
UCLA under 5.5 -110
Kansas State under 9.5 -135
San Diego St under 5.5 -120
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110
James Madison under 8.5 -164
Arkansas under 5.5 -200
Ohio U under 6.5 -104
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128
North Carolina under 7.5 -115
Ball State under 4.5 -154
Georgia State under 4.5 +100
Old Dominion under 5 -160
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110


TEXAS STATE to win SBC +500 .33u
BOWLING GREEN to win MAC +700 .33u
EAST CAROLINA to win AAC +1600 .22u
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u
WMU to win the MAC +880 .33u

Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty

Games of the year playe

septEmber 28th UNC ML -115. @duke (bet 365) 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pK4iHZiSoW7dSlNxm2nQc?si=e1JBMLEhSNCPe94OucKK2A&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A5e5C8ViWYZM9ROKJxRP9UF&t=487

my Mac thoughts 

Thrilled that I was able to participate in "The First Reed" podcast discussing conference outlook and regular season wins. It was a great discussion and very insightful. If you are so inclined, go check out the pod and get more information from blue bird. 

Tons of FCS lines have been released by some books today, excited to dive into those options and find some value plays in FCS/FBS matchups. 

Last year we saw a super low amount of FCS upsets over FBS competition as just 4 such instances occured out of 118 games. 

Adding a few to the regular season wins portfolio 

THIS IS NOW MY LARGEST RSW FUTURES CARD I HAVE EVER HAD  

I was running some numbers on FCS vs FCS week 1 games using some proprietary power ratings and believe that these are some numbers that we might see when FCS vs FCS lines are released. I am not saying this is where the line should be, or that we should be betting into these numbers if the lines are off, but it could be considered a starting point for assessing who and what we want to bet into for FCS lines. These lines are typically known to be release day of, and usually not sooner than 90 minutes before kickoff, and they have a tendency to move quickly. To read this chart you have a team, the respective power rating assigned, and then a potential spread at the end.

A couple of notes I have on these FCS week 0/1 games will be posted in my next post below... just based on a preliminary review of this along with the phil steele fcs mag and any other fcs literature i have been able to digest this off season (twitter beat writers, team website content, sam herder hero sports, s--k on this webpage, etc.)





MCNEESE @ TARLETON STATE MCNEESE STATE 22.70 TARLETON STATE 53.80 -31.10
SEMO @ NORTH ALABAMA SE MISSOURI ST 42.00 NORTH ALABAMA 36.40 5.60
FAMU @ NORFOLK ST FLORIDA A&M 58.00 NORFOLK STATE 30.00 28.00
YOUNGSTOWN STATE @ VILLANOVA YOUNGSTOWN ST 62.40 VILLANOVA 62.20 0.20
WOFFORD @ GARDNER WEBB WOFFORD 28.40 GARDNER-WEBB 44.00 -15.60
PRESBYTERIAN @ MERCER PRESBYTERIAN 22.70 MERCER 47.70 -25.00
BRYANT @ DELAWARE BRYANT 46.90 DELAWARE 56.90 -10.00
VMI @ WILLIAM AND MARY VMI 30.90 WILLIAM & MARY 49.70 -18.80
MONMOUTH @ EASTERN WASHINGTONMONMOUTH 47.60 E WASHINGTON 42.30 5.30
COLGATE @ MAINE COLGATE 41.40 MAINE 31.90 9.50
SFPA @ DAYTON SAINT FRANCIS-PA 39.50 DAYTON 30.50 9.00
DAVIDSON @ GEORGETOWN DAVIDSON 38.30 GEORGETOWN 41.00 -2.70
VALPO @ NORTHERN IOWA VALPARAISO 25.30 NORTHERN IOWA 50.30 -25.00
SOU CAROLINA STATE @ FAMU SC STATE 37.40 FLORIDA A&M 58.00 -20.60
CITADEL @ CHARLESTON SOUTHERN THE CITADEL 16.60 CHARLESTON SOU 32.60 -16.00
MORGAN STATE @ HAMPTON MORGAN STATE 33.70 HAMPTON 31.20 2.50
DELAWARE STATE @ SACRED HEART DELAWARE STATE 20.70 SACRED HEART 25.30 -4.60
MISS VALLEY STATE @ TENNESSEE STATEMVSU 23.30 TENNESSEE STATE 38.10 -14.80
NO COLORADO @ INCARNATE WORD NORTHERN CO 21.80 INCARNATE WORD 52.90 -31.10
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ PVA&M TEXAS SOUTHERN 38.10 PRAIRIE VIEW 33.60 4.50
HOLY CROSS @ RHODE ISLAND HOLY CROSS 61.00 RHODE ISLAND 46.50 14.50
LIU @ ALBANY LONG ISLAND 28.10 ALBANY-NY 59.20 -31.10
SOUTHERN @ MCNEESE SOUTHERN U. 42.40 MCNEESE STATE 22.70 19.70
CAL POLY @ SAN DIEGO CAL POLY 26.40 SAN DIEGO 31.20 -4.80
MISSOURI STATE @ MONTANA MISSOURI STATE 48.80 MONTANA 64.70 -15.90
ALABAMA STATE @ NC CENTRAL ALABAMA STATE 45.30 NC CENTRAL 46.90 -1.60

week 0 MCNEESE @ TARLETON STATE MCNEESE STATE 22.70 TARLETON STATE 53.80 -31.10 mcneese 0-10 last year but likely to be improved with former MT QB coming in, would play the cowboys at this number without hesitation.
week 0SEMO @ NORTH ALABAMA SE MISSOURI ST 42.00 NORTH ALABAMA 36.40 5.60 not sure UNA should be a dog here
week 0 FAMU @ NORFOLK ST FLORIDA A&M 58.00 NORFOLK STATE 30.00 28.00 BIG mismatch, do the books have the guts to make FAMU -28 on the road?

week 1
YOUNGSTOWN STATE @ VILLANOVA YOUNGSTOWN ST 62.40 VILLANOVA 62.20 0.20 sneaky good FCS matchup in week 1, think Nova is the better team
WOFFORD @ GARDNER WEBB WOFFORD 28.40 GARDNER-WEBB 44.00 -15.60 GW loses a ton, not sure they should be this large a fave vs. wofford in year 2 of the spread offense.
PRESBYTERIAN @ MERCER PRESBYTERIAN 22.70 MERCER 47.70 -25.00 PU better than in years past, but non-scholorship FCS pioneer football league is really bad and the talent disparity in the depths of the roster is noticeable.
BRYANT @ DELAWARE BRYANT 46.90 DELAWARE 56.90 -10.00 what will delaware treat this season as, with the transition up to FBS?
VMI @ WILLIAM AND MARY VMI 30.90 WILLIAM & MARY 49.70 -18.80 VMI improved on the field last year after being a SOCON bottom feeder for ever, this is a lot of points but W&M vastly different LY when their best offensive players were healthy.
MONMOUTH @ EASTERN WASHINGTONMONMOUTH 47.60 E WASHINGTON 42.30 5.30 long trip from NJ to Cheaney...EWA a home dog?
COLGATE @ MAINE COLGATE 41.40 MAINE 31.90 9.50 two bad teams here, wonder what we will see.
SFPA @ DAYTON SAINT FRANCIS-PA 39.50 DAYTON 30.50 9.00 SFPA should crush these guys before getting buried by two FBS mac teams...if they dont, something is wrong.

DAVIDSON @ GEORGETOWN DAVIDSON 38.30 GEORGETOWN 41.00 -2.70 sneaky matchup here. GU in the Patriot league but the school is a NON Scholarship football school so the talent here will not be staggering, would hope the books dont know that and hang a -10 out there so we could play davidson.
VALPO @ NORTHERN IOWA VALPARAISO 25.30 NORTHERN IOWA 50.30 -25.00 this line would be low, valpo typically gets buried by these MVFC teams, UNI way way down from years prior
SOU CAROLINA STATE @ FAMU SC STATE 37.40 FLORIDA A&M 58.00 -20.60 lots of points again here, FAMU could be rock solid this season.
CITADEL @ CHARLESTON SOUTHERN THE CITADEL 16.60 CHARLESTON SOU 32.60 -16.00 hard to lay this many with CSU, but citadel is really really bad.
MORGAN STATE @ HAMPTON MORGAN STATE 33.70 HAMPTON 31.20 2.50 no idea here, wouldnt bet a ham sandwich on this one.
DELAWARE STATE @ SACRED HEART DELAWARE STATE 20.70 SACRED HEART 25.30 -4.60 long trip back from hawaii and on the road again, would seek to play SHU
MISS VALLEY STATE @ TENNESSEE STATEMVSU 23.30 TENNESSEE STATE 38.10 -14.80 MVSU horrific, and not getting any better, would seek to play tennessee state.
NO COLORADO @ INCARNATE WORD NORTHERN CO 21.80 INCARNATE WORD 52.90 -31.10 UNC really really has fallen hard, has UIW maintained their level of play, and are they motivated to blow out this team? SHould score at will
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ PVA&M TEXAS SOUTHERN 38.10 PRAIRIE VIEW 33.60 4.50 eeek...pass
HOLY CROSS @ RHODE ISLAND HOLY CROSS 61.00 RHODE ISLAND 46.50 14.50 HCU getting a lot of credit for years past, coach and QB gone. might look Home dog RI here.
LIU @ ALBANY LONG ISLAND 28.10 ALBANY-NY 59.20 -31.10 goodness, this line surprises me, Albany certainly has to take a step back this year, maybe LIU a step up?
SOUTHERN @ MCNEESE SOUTHERN U. 42.40 MCNEESE STATE 22.70 19.70 again another line probably out of whack due to horrid mcneese play from last year but would have no choice but to play cowboys large at this number...likely a number we will not see.
CAL POLY @ SAN DIEGO CAL POLY 26.40 SAN DIEGO 31.20 -4.80 big rivalry game here, CPU typically plays these guys close.
MISSOURI STATE @ MONTANA MISSOURI STATE 48.80 MONTANA 64.70 -15.90 MO St. transitioning to FBS, what will they treat this season as? will they compete here or have they decided to use this as a throw away season, you should know early in this one.
ALABAMA STATE @ NC CENTRAL ALABAMA STATE 45.30 NC CENTRAL 46.90 -1.60- NCC tough at home, what is this respect for Alabama state, I would be surprised to see them improve as much as to compete with NCC who holds their own in the MEAC.

Are you still bullish on UTSA and Cuse ATS in week 1?   I was at the Frisco Bowl in December MCCown torched Marshall.   I see more of the same against KSU.   And Cuse, with their new coach, and marginal D scares me a bit, but as you pointed out, Ohio U is starting over on Offense, and they will struggle in the Dome in week 1.   If Cuse wants to make a bowl with its schedule, this is an absolute must win.  

Was thrilled to participate in another POD session, ¡°The First Reed¡±

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0QeB1NVLPXB3D5xxDegm1H?si=cokAwuuOQQmpF15d2L9fHQ&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A5Ve07AZXdWlIkppYajDVVB&t=439

very much so. Excited about the numbers I got on these teams and feel very comfortable. 

am I reading tis right, Hawaii line jumped 10 points since you bet it ?  Unreal !!!

Thrilled to talk college football and regular season wins/ conference futures with my man @JakeSirkus next week. Excited to dive into value plays/market moves and what teams may surprise/ under achieve based on current perception. Something to look forward to. Stay tuned.