Dr. Strangelove Week 14

YTD: 53-44

The Running Dogs went 10-4. The best week of the season...and most importantly, 10 of the 14 were ACTUAL running dogs that went 8-2. But man, I left WAY too many on the table. And out of those 4 losers I managed to find 2 of them. So not a great week for me. OU was a borderline running dog against High Tide but didn't quite make the cut. But I think they proved their point Saturday night with 257 yards rushing. OU is a running dog this week, but this is a gawd awful spot for them...Quite a few PRD's this week. More than I thought there would be, so I have a lot to sift through.

Running Dogs (PRD's)

Miami, OH +2.5 (D)

South Carolina +2.5 (D)

Kansas +1 … better PPG D

West Virginia +3.5

Wake Forest +4.5

CCU +1 (D)

Pitt +4.5 (D)

Auburn +11.5

UAB +3 … better YPG D

Arkansas +3.5 … better YPG D

Jax State +1.5 … better YPG D

Appalachian State +2.5 … better YPG D

Cincinnati +3 (D, H)

Oklahoma +6.5 (D)

Kansas State +3

Memphis/Tulane run numbers are closer than I had anticipated

Minny/Wisky run numbers are close

Illinois/Northwestern run numbers are close

FAU/Tulsa run numbers are close

Dogs were definitely barking last week. At one point I thought every dog on my card was going to win. Going to be on a couple of these. Clemson vs SC is interesting, not sure what to make of the line (lean SC). Kansas vs Baylor should be some serious total yards. Nice list.

@DrStrangelove

STRANGE 

Great stuff Doc .. Close out the season YUUUUGE!!! 

For me the last couple weeks are all about teams showing up .. pretty much any dog we can reasonably predict to show up feels like it belongs in the card for a couple bucks .. has to be some circumstance beyond power ratings to lay any points at this juncture .. And some dogs are playing for nothing but not really a reason to lay points with the fav either I'd consider those dogs too and home field has to be navigated .. BAMA home for Iron Bowl facing the fans is huuuuge .. UCLA home with empty rose bowl maybe inspires nothing but doctors notes from the BRU CREW .. and maaaan if we can't deduce some reason why the fav is interested in showing up then there's every reason to take a stab on the ML or drop some of those into a parlay .. 

Agree on Memphis its a team that is 100% showing up to this game regardless of the situation and even w Tulane wanting a big win for their playoff hopes it won't be handed to them .. play on Memp or no play for me .. 

How about Troy layin 17.5 at home in almost certainly an empty home stadium playing a SMISS team that was still fighting last week lookin for their first FBS win .. funny feeling there .. UCLA same thing .. UCLA post USC has lost I think 5 straight up and failed to cover 3 more really only one big win since 2016 in this spot .. maybe the new management gets em to play hard here but HFA forget it, feels like they were toast in this one the moment the schedule came out ..  

Would be careful with UNLV laying a gigantic number Nevada isin't that good but when they're playing well they've surprised everyone .. BIIIG rivalry game you just know they'd love to cancel their conf champ game and playoff hopes on their big fancy home field lol .. never forget the BRAWL that broke out a few years back w these two they aint showin up just to lay down here . 

@Bridge1

My main concern with some of these dogs is their ability to stop the run late in the season. Nevada is tempting considering how many one score games they've been in, but I think their D is wearing down pretty fast. And I've never been big on taking teams coming off playing a military academy. Now they've got to switch defensive modes again to play another well-disciplined offense with more weapons who still has something to play for. 

Memphis might be worth a look now that it's 14. I was actually kind of liking Tulane when it opened at -11. But now we're talking 3 scores to cover vs a team very capable of getting the back door. Memphis has an offense similar to North Texas who put up 525 yards and 37 points on Tulane. The Memphis D on the road is scary, but Tulane has everything wrapped up as far as getting in the conference title game. Tulane has been great ATS. They've only lost 2 games ATS all season. I've only bet against them once, and was lucky to get the backdoor push with North Texas. These guys are very disciplined. They're one of those 200/200 teams on offense, so they can hurt you in many ways. Memphis will have to play some mistake free football to stay on the field with these guys. They are +15 on the season so they should be okay there. Definitely one I'm looking at even though Memphis is a public dog.

Good luck and have a Happy Thankgiving!

@DrStrangelove

GL this week amigo!!  Hammer 'em!!  

OP, what are running dogs?

Dogs with better rushing offense/defence differential?

Love this idea btw

Have a great holiday Doc 

Home teams running dogs were smoking hot last week and 7+ point dogs continues to ROCK!! 

YTD: 71-63 (53%)

Week 13: 10-4

Home Team: 5-0 ¡­ 24-21 (53.33%) YTD
Away Team: 5-4 ¡­ 47-42 (52.81%) YTD

Neutral Field: 0-0 ¡­ 0-0 (0%) YTD
With Better D: 3-2 ¡­ 26-19 (57.78%) YTD
With Better D at Home: 1-0 ¡­ 7-6 (53.85%) YTD
7 points or more: 2-0¡­.. 29-15 (65.91%) YTD ¡­ DD 18-5 (78.26%) YTD

G5 v P4: 1-0 ¡­. 5-1 (83.33%) YTD

G5 v G5: 5-3¡­ 31-27 (53.45%) YTD

P4 v P4: 4-1 ¡­ 35-35 (50%) YTD

ACTUAL: 45-21 (68.18%) YTD

Week # 13: 8-2

Not the ACTUAL: 26-42 (38.24%) YTD

Week # 13: 2-2

Predicting the ACTUAL: 68-67 (50.37%) YTD (number different than overall because of a push)

This week's plays so far:

Memphis +14

Like I said in my running dogs list, the run numbers between these two teams was a lot closer than I initially thought. Memphis is the weaker running team, but are actually better against the run than Tulane. Plus I like the fact that Memphis is +15 in TO margin for the season. So if they can force Tulane into throwing the ball more, we may possibly get a couple turnovers. At least one can hope!

GL

@DrStrangelove

 Winner, Winner, Turkey Dinner! 

Good Stuff! 

GL  on your plays & Happy USA Thanksgiving @DrStrangelove 

Week 14 Plays so far:

Memphis +14

Pitt +4.5

Pitt is a running dog and this looks like a good 'get right' spot for them...Memphis was a HUGE running dog tonight 236-57..

@DrStrangelove

 Bol

The Alabama vs Auburn game is always schizophrenia on display. These two schools are joined at the hip in so many ways because Bama is such a small state. I'm not touching it, but I would issue a word of caution to those taking Auburn. If you are associated with Alabama football and you are winning - the accolades and exposure are like a drug. This Bama team - with three losses - has now fallen to a new low when compared with the standards set under Saban's watch. The coaches and players know it, they are reminded daily what is expected. Look for them to be out for blood in this game, at home in Tuscaloosa with a packed house of CRAZY fans. The stadium will have the atmosphere of a prize fight. 

@DrStrangelove

 #12 

Now that was a tiger in your tank no pun intended ¡­. Meow!

Week 14 Plays so far:

Memphis +14

Pitt +4.5

Stanford +3

@DrStrangelove

 Thanks for all your hard work Doc, and good luck no matter which side you take....