Conference Championship Money

@WahooS

GL on your plays amigo and Hammer 'em!!  

Oh yes I've lost by the hook a few times this year, and I've had a few bad beats, the worst of which was a 2u bet on Baylor vs Colorado when they had a big lead late and fell to the hail mary and then fumbled over the goal line in OT....That was brutal. 

I really believe the Ducks will easily handle business vs PSU. Its 3u bet for me, so biggest of the year but nothing crazy, I am disciplined with bankroll. 90% are just 1u, I think I made maybe 3 or 4 2u bets this year only. 

@Yanasaur

yessir!  I learned long ago to try and stick with 1-2% of your "bankroll" per wager.  Wha La!  I became steady at being just over 50% last couple yrs.  

Before that, I was all over the place.  Mainly losing more than winning.  IFKYK.  GL the rest of the way amigo!!!  Hammer 'em!! 

And Army in their first year in the AAC. 

Definitely leaned Oregon initially.   However, Wahoo.. any concern about the fact that, with a loss, OREGON might have a more favorable path to the championship than if they win, with how the bracket currently projects? 

@WahooS

 Look ahead .....Army over Navy??.....thanks for the input....

The line seems low at 3/3.5. I think the handicap does not come down to speed, but the trenches. Sure Oregon has burners but PSU is not a slow team. In fact they are more likely to over pursue and get burned. Which brings me back to the trench. To Bridges point PSU goes from really solid RT to maybe replacement level on a good team. That matters a lot for a plodding but creative offense that relies on development of plays. PSU needs to run and control clock to have a shot. On the other side, I do think PSU can cause problems for Oregon in the front 7. If they can't, yes, the popular opinion in this thread (and on the splits.. saw 90/95 today, yet the line hasn't moved...) will prevail. 

FWIW: I do think Oregon can burn PSU over the top with those WRs but I actually think PSU may have better back 4 and depth than OSU. It's going to depend on time to throw and oregons run game to open it up. PSU has no deep passing game outside of schemed shots to Warren or #5, so OSU was largely untested outside of Oregon who BURNED them. We know Indiana couldn't hold up. 

Edit: a little more context. The DEs PSU presents will be the best Oregon has seen, including the returnee$ at OSU. Watch that game if you don't believe me, where they made Howard's life difficult but over pursued a handful of times leading to big plays. Howard missed a few bombs on wash outs too. Gabriel wont. And PSU is not lacking options in the middle between a pass rusher tweener Durant and 3 dudes who can play 1 tech (though have been hit been attrition here). I expect them to go pass rush so if Oregon can establish the run PSU will be in trouble. At LB they are good not great (can be taken advantage of) and if no pressure, the corners can be beat. The safeties are near top of conference imo but injury to Winston has hurt upside and depth. 

Crazy but I was thinking the same thing. I have the Ducks at -3 but just a standard play. 

@ChalkisGold

 U LIKE THE OVER AFTER A TEAM DAWGS WENT TO 8 OT S THE WEEK BEFORE BOL

Let¡¯s get em this weekend. 

I¡¯ve had the chance now to watch lots of Penn st & Oregon last few days & it now appears to me that the lions should be able to run on the ducks & their style of defense may matchup vs Ducks, I¡¯m not sure I¡¯ll keep Oregon now, I¡¯ve also talked to about 50 people this week & not a single person likes Penn St that I know so that¡¯s generally not my favorite side to be on

im not disagreeing with you on angle but I do think Oregon will try to win this game for sure, can¡¯t imagine them wanting to lose to improve their path 

I like a couple other games more now so will likely add those & may bail on ducks 

Franklin is now the sole reason I¡¯d even bet ducks, not a matchup on the field like I initially thought 

your Tide may get in, that¡¯s absurd to me after losing by 21 at OU but here we are 

happy holidays amigo 

I had only watched them vs Ohio St & USC & they didn¡¯t seem quick to me 

the field was slowish when they played Bucs

I think they¡¯d lose in the sec because of speed but we will see in the playoffs

I do agree with some of your post for sure, thanks for stopping in 

Tulane @ Army thoughts 

this matchup is definitely favoring Tulane, the army defensive metrics are awful, there are couple factors keeping me away 

1. how is Tulane mentally after getting beat by Memphis???

2. their coach is getting another job very soon so is his head all there now that playoff chance is finished???

3. Its going to be freezing weather & Tulane doesn¡¯t play in weather like that

all these factors likely help army but these teams wouldn¡¯t be close on a neutral in 60 degrees, they do what Dame did to them in that scenario imo 

this is 100% going to be a ¡°live bet¡± type of game because IF Tulane wants to be there they should win by 7 or more, the matchups simply favor the wave imo 

@WahooS

 Thanks Wahoo....thinking same way...bol this weekend...

@WahooS

 Imo and I think we all know this if Oregon can stop the run and Penn st has to rely on the qb then Oregon wins by 14 or more but if they can¡¯t then Penn st has a shot I saw the game vs ucla if it wasn¡¯t for the run game they really had nothing  Bol to all 

@Saint_John

 Curious as to where you got the hews from that Sumrall is staying

*news*

Wahoo, congrats on your new pup.   I would have told you to wait a little bit longer thou, just so you dont try to compare the new pup to Your Other Dog.  I have gone thru losing so many Pets(Family), started to lose count.

Good luck with the new pup? whats the breed and he or she name? 

Thanks for sharing Hoos 

100% in agreement with you, which is why I'm leaning towards Army. Whenever a team has a "bubble burst" loss, like Tulane experienced against Memphis, and Army had against Notre Dame, it tends to carry over to the next game. Tulane blew their CFP shot, and blew their chance to host this game. I can't imagine we'll see their best effort here, especially in freezing temps!

@WahooS

 Oregon SHOULD win.  I was surprised that the line is that low.  Thought Oregon would be closer to 6 or at least 4.5.  And yes, I¡¯ve seen hardly anyone on Penn State. I¡¯ll have to check out the bet %s on each side. 

And yes   Looks like Alabama will get in  I¡¯m obviously happy about that, but not sure if they deserve it or will do much   They are very schizophrenic   They have the best wins, but also some really bad losses. Their D is pretty shaky and they are uncharacteristically undisciplined at times.  I DO think they¡¯d beat Miami by 6 or so if they played so there¡¯s that    Should be interesting   

Happy Holidays to you too bro   You¡¯re one of the few reasons I still come back here