Bowling into the Christmas Weekend!

@zircon

Monday the 26th, YTD in Bowls now 14 - 8 for + 17.50 units.

Note:  Games are rated from 1 to 5 units with 5 the highest, all plays are 3 units unless otherwise noted. 

As I look at todays game and a nice schedule ahead, one game sticks out to on Wednesday as a vast overreaction again with a huge Line move. I will get to that shortly.  

Today:

New Mexico State +3.5:   Two factors push me to take this dog, Strength of schedule and their defense, statistically New Mex St is ranked 33rd vs BG which is 105th defensively.  NMS beat Liberty, Umass, New Mex and Hawaii, no powerhouses by any means but they also played UTEP close, losing 20-13 and were blown out by Wisconsin and Missouri.  Then we have BG in the Macc, getting crushed by Ohio, Kent, Buffalo and then the lone team with any horses, lost to Mississippi State 45-14.    Statistically side by side NMS has the edge in other major categories, check out the Covers stat line and matchups as another source.   I will gladly take the points here and see NMS winning outright. 

The other look ahead game I see is Wednesday, UCF vs Duke, the line opened up with UCF -2.5 and now has swung to Duke -3.5.   I am in on UCF +4 now (buying up a half pt) .  Write up to follow on my reasoning if interested. Studying the other games also, I love this time of year!  

HC Malzahn is a great offensive mind as he had 3 - QBS working in the UCF seaon all year successfully for the most part.  They averaged 34.4 ppg throwing 22 TDS w 7 ints, not bad for using a 3 headed attack.  Keep in mind UCF has a solid ground attack which is ranked 8th in the country averaging 231 ypg.   Now UCF lost playmaker Ryan Okeefe and QB Keene but still has QB Plumlee to guide them.  Their defense is 40th in nation and and 5th in red zone defense and they went 2 - 1 vs top 20 teams beating Tulane and Cincinnati.  UCF is 22 - 10 ATS on the road against defenses that allow 58% completions to opponents or worse.   Duke was terrific at home but split on the road  They did not face any top 20 teams and lost to GT, 23 - 20 which was a common opponent that UCF had no problems handling 27 - 10.   I think the line move is an overreaction to players going into the portal, we have seen this repeatedly throughout this bowl season. I grabbed UCF now as I think as we get closer to game time the line will adjust back down to Duke -2 or -1, I think the wrong team is favored here!  

UCF +4 for 4 units. 

New Mexico State has to be excited to be here! Good luck KM!

@tinfoils

 Yes, the majority of the forum is on New Mexico state and that has been the Kiss of Death of late, this now worries me.  I also stated in a post that NMS had the tougher schedule and was quickly called out on that as according to CFB stats, the Aggies had the easiest schedule in CFB.  I have my own simulations I run and plus I don't much stock in the Macc and that who BG has played mostly.  We will see, should be an "interesting" game as we have two teams undeserving of a bowl game. 

@KeyMaster

 All Pavia 

Excellent analysis KM, another W,big thxs

Good to see the majority of the Forum was on New Mexico State and they covered!     

Bowl Record YTD is 15 - 8 for + 20.50 units.

Working on tomorrows Bowl picks, did release Wednesdays: UCF +4 for 4 units. 

GL @KeyMaster 

Tuesday plays: 

Buffalo +4.5- 2 units

Memphis -6.5 - 4 units

Carolina's OVER 63.5 - 2 units

Wisconsin UNDER 45.5 - 4 units.

Bowl Record YTD is 15 - 8 (65.2%) for + 20.50 units.

Here are the plays I made with the lines I was able to lock in this morning: 

Buffalo +4.5- 2 units 

  Memphis -6.5 - 5 units    (This game is up to 7.5 now, I bought it down from 7) 

Carolina's OVER 64.5 - 2 units  (This number went up a bit as a shoot out is expected with poor Defenses on both sides) 

Wisconsin -3.5 - 3 units

Wisconsin UNDER 45.5 - 3 units.   ( Total is going up as Braelyon Edwards is playing and losses of D players pushing the total up a bit) 

Thoughts?? 

Early looks for Wednesday:  UCF +4, Ark -3,  Oregon -13 and Oregon TT OVER 41.5, also Texas Tech +3.5.  Thoughts?   

Adding:

Georgia Southern/Buffalo 1st Half UNDER 33.5 for 3 units.

These teams will be feeling each other out the first half and getting settled. I see a low scoring 1st half before any chaos or oddities occur in the second half 

@KeyMaster

 nice KM 

2-0 so far 

@bet-to-win

Hope your riding along, looking good so far!

Ok, let¡¯s keep we going! 

Carolina's OVER 64.5 - 2 units

Wisconsin -3.5 - 3 units

Wisconsin UNDER 45.5 - 1 unit, NOTE, reduced this to 1 unit, I bet the other side, over as I got a 44, change of heart, tough call on the Wisky total.  I am in on the under and want to offset to reduce my exposure.   Sorry who ever may have followed. 

@KeyMaster

 yesss man,4-0 so far

Buff ats,ml

Memphis 1H ats,Fg ats

your key to the new year

@LAUBERHORN

@bet-to-win

 Let¡¯s keep Kashin! 

5-0 

TOTAL o66?-110 (East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina)

Pending "el wisky -5"

A little sweat and stress in the end doesn't hurt,lol

STRAIGHT BET WINCFB - [244] Wisconsin -5-110 Score: Oklahoma State(17) - Wisconsin(24) Game Start :12/27/2022 08:25 PM Ticket # 5932-----

Nice KEY MASTER 

On Fire! 

Good luck with UCF 

6-0 day, + 16 units, 

YTD 21 - 8 in Bowl games, + 36.50 units 

@WahooS