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#1
UVA (20-2, 8-2, 16-6 ats, 10-12 o/u)
UNC (17-4, 9-1, 13-8 ats, 11-11 o/u)
Another great matchup tonight for all of us Hoops junkies to enjoy. It should be another very entertaining game. I might add there are few edges in this game for investment purposes imo.
The Tar Heels got bailed out by Luke Maye's 3 bomb to force overtime and in the end were fortunate to survive the Canes. Not to take anything away from Miami's surprising great performance but I think it's easy to say now UNC was looking ahead to tonight's game. (Why didn't some astute capper in this forum post a writeup proclaiming this to be an ultimate sandwich game off the big rivalry game with the Pack and tell us all to take the gang of points with the Canes for a no sweat blockbuster? I'm so blind I need this kind of enlightenment from the Covers brothers and sisters. Where were you in my time of need?) 
UVA rolls into Chapel Hill after feeling how hot that Blue Devils trident fork can be. The Cavs couldn't even have a shoot around yesterday because Duke shot the lights out of John Paul Jones Arena before returning to Durham.
What can you say? Duke goes box to wire after RJ hits five straight 3 bombs and Duke starts 7-8 from behind the magical arc. That left the Cavs playing uphill all night. Duke entered the game shooting 29% from deep.
I think it's safe to say that if Duke gets 13 treys at a 62% clip they are going to win on that particular day no matter who they are playing. There is no doubt the Dukies are a supremely talented team. Their defense was also outstanding. There pressure D on the ball was killer and got them some steals for easy buckets. Their denial D had the Cavs somewhat out of sync offensively at times, forcing 14 costly UVA turnovers. When you can get run outs off turnovers and long rebounds and not have to face the Cavs setup pack-line defense it sure makes the game easier.
It's not like UVA played bad because they didn't. They still shot well, 28-60 for 47%, 10-24 for 42%, had 3 more rebounds than Duke and forced 15 turnovers. That's generally good enough on most nights. Not to mention that Mamadi Diakite only played 9 1/2 minutes after receiving a head butt from a teammate. 
I guess that leads me to this. I don't think UNC is going to bring the same kind of defensive heat the Cavs just faced. So I see the UVA offense functioning more smoothly tonight and getting the shots they want.
The Heels prefer to just out score their opponents in a fast paced back and forth game and they are good at it. Their secondary break is second to none. That's why they get so many quick shots off. Roy has been using this same gameplan since his early days in Kansas. It's fueled by dominating the defensive glass, the quick outlet pass, and off they go. It certainly helps that you own a +9.7 rebound differential the Heels possess this season.
It also helps when you have some great shooters like Coby White, Kenny Williams, Luke Maye, and Cam Johnson.
Having said all that the Cavs are a good rebounding team themselves, with a +6.7 rebounding differential. I believe they will hold their own on the glass tonight and not be dominated on the boards the way NC normally does most of their opponents.
In addition,there was no doubt VA was packing the lane against Duke to clog the middle. It was like picking your poison. Tony Bennett decided he would rather give up the deep outside shot. Makes sense to me. No different than a football coach loading the box against a potent power inside rushing attack and saying if you make the deep throws you beat us.
However, I don't think Bennett wanted to give the room the Duke shooters got. After the game he said, "I thought we were a little slow on our close outs. We really tried to jam the lane. We probably over-reacted in terms of that."
After watching lots of film with his team yesterday I believe Bennett makes the necessary adjustments so that his Cavs are not caught in the gaps as much like Saturday, thus being able to defend the arc a little quicker tonight.
cont'd
If you can't close you can't cover.
0
Great wriite -up 
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