sat

1.1 / 1

Indy St -4.5 vs. drake

saw Devries hurt his shoulder at end of the valpo game few days ago.  Apparantly it was pretty bad, but no word on his status.  I feel Indy St at home in the rematch is capable to begin with, but the thought of Devries being at least somewhat compromised makes this feel pretty strong to me.  Devries was a monster in the first matchup.  Also, Drake is elite at ball control so I assume they'll have a few less turnovers here, but it was 15-3 in the first meeting, just can't imagine Indy St allows such a difference this time.  Just see this very solid indy st team winning at home so take chances with the points

1.14 / 1

UNC -4.5 vs. duke

Going with the vet team in bounceback mode at home angle.  Feel like Duke is more talented so dangerous in that regard, but they're more talented than most teams they play.  If they aren't hitting shooting lights out like at VT last game they should be quite beatable on the road.  Just a few days b4 that they need ref help to beat Clemson at home, so it's not like they've been playing lights out.  Would think road game against angry home team with an elite level defense, it's unlikely they'll shoot that well.  Take chances laying a few

gl  

@Cappologist

 do you think it is beneficial to buy to the number that you post which is about -125 to -130 juice by the time my spot opens at 9 AM on game day. Or just take the new line? finding a book that opens up lines at 3 PM the day before the game is not an option for me at this time. I guess my question really comes down to are you seeing quite a few wins by a half a point to a point? I¡¯ve already seen a couple. For instance, Iowa State last Saturday and last night Towson, which I actually ended up buying to -6 for the W 

I actually pushed on towson because the betonline opener came out at 7 lol so worked against me there.  Literally dropped to 6.5 like 15 seconds after I bet it.   Brutal stuff

In Iowa st case, I believe it came out -4 at draftkings and I waited for betonline which happened to come out -3.  

I wouldn't lay juice like that.  I lost a -118 juice last night and it just made me an extra 8 cents worth of pissed off

I think the openers are important first couple months of season when lines are volatile.  I was routinely beating the close by 2 or more pretty often.  Thing is I'm fairly certain that it rarely actually mattered.  But it certainly could.

Betonline, draftkings, fanduel the books to have if u can.  Never really know which will come out first.  Tho fof Saturdays since conference play started betonline been coming out like 6 pm friday, while dk and fd releasing certain lines as early as noon, but it seems they don't come out with the whole full slate til after betonline

But at this time of season I don't think it matters much if u get in early.  I just like to get the plays in and be done if I can so as to not have to think about it anymore.  

I assume you dont live in state with legal betting, you should definitely look into getting a betonline account

@Cappologist

 Excellent info!
Thank you Cap!
Did you post on this site last year? 
if so, do you remember the units that you ended the season?

here is to continued success

1.1 / 1

FSU -5.5 @ louisville 

did fine during regular season but terrible during the tourneys at the end

FSU- louisville does play  hard for this loser payne, came back against clemson last game after clemson let up with big lead.  But majority of the time louisville has no plan and falls in a hole.  I assume the challenges FSU presents will lead to another hole at some point, take my chances from there.  Hard to not fade louisville only having to lay this 

something else to keep in mind, that I noticed recently, and almost just benefitted from.  But my timing was off again lol

On fanduel, unlike DK and probably the other legal sites.  If you place a bet, and the odds are unchanged, you can cash out and get your exact money back.  On DK you would sacrafice money to cash out even if odds are unchanged

So, Freakin unc line came out at -3 at betonline.  It's currently -3.5.  Which is terrible sign lol This probably means these unc herbs are going to suffer a humiliating home loss.  Heels some f*ckin babynuts scallywags pulling this crap.  Unbelievable.  But that's another story

Anyway, it didnt dawn on me right away.  But I could have gone to fanduel immediately, cashed out, and made the bet at betonline at better number for no financial penalty at all.  Unfortunately, when I realized it, the line shifted to -4.5 (-102) from -4.5 (-114) and I wouldve had to forfiet too much money to justify it.  So stuck with the -4.5 (-114)

But very easily could have benefitted from this, with fanduel coming out with more openers lately,  it's something to keep in mind dudes 

2.2 / 2

Chattanooga -1.5 vs. Samford

Trying this Samford fade again here.  Nooga is playing better ball than this team currently. Far better than when they first played a few weeks ago.  I also have a feeling adjustments can be made against a pressing team like Samford and nooga will handle it better.  Samford been in dogfights with weaker squads of late.  I see nooga riding their momentum into this one, not letting Samford do their front running thing and getting it done at home 

Gl

I appreciate the thoughtful writeups, cap. GL today as always!

Cap.......

Good luck Cap.  

@Cappologist

Thanks, Capp! BOL today!

TIP