Lamont Peterson vs. Dierry Jean

Lamont Peterson vs. Dierry Jean

IBF Light Welterweight Title

January 25, 2014

D.C. Armory

Washington, D.C.

Showtime

Key factors in this fight are somewhat harder to gauge as they are entering unfamiliar territory. These are mostly in the psychological aspect rather than the physical attributes, so the guessing game is played when doing handicapping subjectively. Both fighters haven¡¯t fought in almost nine months. Starting with Jean, this is his first step up in class (not weight class). His previous opponents were all considered second class, or more specifically I¡¯d rank his level of competition as all Tier 3 and worse (with Tier 2 associated as fighters considered or ranked within the top 15 among that weight class; while Tier 5 fighters are proven to be the very worst and would be underdogs to a amateur fighter making his pro debut and Tier 1 would be fighter¡¯s that are considered to be the best in their weight class, or just among the top three if they clearly are far above the rest of the Tier 2 fighters).

Setting that aside, this is Lamont Peterson¡¯s first fight coming off a his only TKO loss by in the third round against Lucas Matthysse who I¡¯d consider almost Tier 1, but a clear Tier 2 at worst as he ranks among the top ten just about everywhere (top five in most) in his weight class. The loss was only his second career loss, but more importantly is it was his only loss by stoppage. Peterson is fighting among his hometown and very often fighters try to many antics and increase their aggression in the way of forcing an impressive win which seems to back fire at a very often.

Combining the two factors of his hometown (he fought twice before winning both fights by TKO in the eighth round) and his first fight back from his only loss by stoppage and what do you get?

It is one of the hardest factors to know when a fighter loses by TKO or KO how he will respond, especially a stoppage loss early in the fight and knocked down more than once. Often fighters that rarely get a chance for a hometown fight start fast and come out blazing. Adding the above information, will his first time stoppage loss effect his aggression? Also remember that in his TKO loss he was knocked down once in the second round and twice in the third before it was stopped (TKO third round at 2:14).

Fighters that are an odds on favorite to win at -200 to -500 in their hometown (especially when it¡¯s a first time home crowd, or only a few hometown fights; I don¡¯t consider American fighter¡¯s from Las Vegas or L.A., as well as Mexican boxers fighting in U.S. Mexico borderline states as most of their fights are in front of their hometown, so it¡¯s a common scenario) fall into the category I¡¯m posting about.

This fight odds are set basically at even money. Typically if Peterson had lost a close decision against Matthysse, he would be at minimal a -175 or more favorite as his opponent has yet to face top or even strong competition. This does not say he can¡¯t compete at a higher level, but he has yet to face. Jean, at age 31 now, and a pro with over 7 years experience and no major layoffs (it would be a different scenario had he stopped fighting for 3 or more years for whatever reason) is now facing Peterson. That¡¯s a huge jump (a red flag to me) and maybe because of the factors I listed above. Jean (or his management) must realize they need to win by stoppage as if it goes to the cards, the hometown fighter gets the nod even in decisive victories as it has shown that judges scoring has only gotten worse despite the constant uproar from media and fans. Jean has never fought anyone solid, so it seems clear he is trying to take advantage of the circumstances of Peterson¡¯s first fight back off his only stoppage loss in the hopes Peterson will not be on his game.

Anyone feel the odds set heavily for public eyes because you have an undefeated fighter and this is Peterson¡¯s first fight back after suffering his only stoppage loss (second career loss)?

Curious on input from others, despite the fact the late posting time.

Watching the fight and the punch stats for a guy who produced nearly double the output, judge Procopio at 115-113 scored as if it was a very close fight (besides an obvious win;  or an objective non-bias aspect, Peterson landed 230 to 123 for Jean in overall punches).