USA vs Brazil Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women's Soccer

Brazil looks to continue their surprise run and send Marta out a champion when they face the United States on Saturday for the Olympic women’s soccer gold medal. 

After somehow getting out of their group, Brazil knocked off France and Spain without Marta in the lineup. Now she returns for her final international tournament appearance, and the unbeaten Americans stand in her way. Emma Hayes has her side rolling, with five wins in five matches and a 11-3 goal differential.

Find out which player will have a major impact on proceedings in my USA vs. Brazil predictions and betting picks for Saturday, August 10. 

USA vs Brazil prediction and best bet

USA all the way

Match prediction
USA moneyline (-110)

My analysis

Brazilian goalkeeper Lorena Leite has been phenomenal so far at the 2024 Olympics, stopping 24 true shots on goal through five matches. And of the six goals she’s conceded, one was an own goal in the semifinal vs. Spain and the other came from a Japanese penalty kick.

But when you look at the goals allowed, you’ll see that five have come at the 85th minute mark or later, including four that have come during stoppage time. This is when Brazil have found themselves under the most pressure from their opponents, and it has shown a lack of composure and killer instinct.

That inability during clutch moments to see things out is why I’m backing the Americans to win within regulation on Saturday. While Brazil has played well, they were very fortunate to get a fluke own-goal six minutes into the match with Spain. This allowed them to play a more defensive style and press a bit deeper than usual and focus more on counter-attacking.

In doing so, they conceded 27 shots with 10 of those going on goal. And now they’re about to deal with an American attack that trails only Spain in shots on goal per 90 minutes.

Only Zambia, Australia, and New Zealand have conceded more SOG/90 so far than Brazil. If not for Leite, they’re likely not in this spot. But they’ll need more than goalkeeping heroics, and their attack has simply not been what they expect at times.

The return of Marta after a two-match suspension does help, and many will be rooting for her to get the gold in likely her final international appearance. But she’s not the scorer she’s been in the past, and the absence of Antonia has somewhat stifled their threat. 

Brazil barely escaped their group as a third-place finisher and have been defeated twice. They’ve outperformed their defensive xGA, they’ve struggled at times to score goals, and they’re going to face a forward line better than anything they’ve seen so far.   

I don’t see the Americans making an early mistake as Spain did and giving Brazil the upper hand. They’re the better side, have shown more poise in tense situations, and have defended exceptionally well. They’ll do so again here as they stand atop the podium after 90 minutes. 

Smith makes her mark

My best bet
Sophia Smith 2+ shots on target (+175)

My analysis

In an interview on Thursday, the attacking trio of Sophia Smith, Mallory Swanson, and Trinity Rodman requested they be dubbed “Triple Espresso.” Given the number of shots that Smith has taken in this tournament, it’s a very fitting nickname.

The American forward ranks sixth among all players at the games in shots on target per 90 minutes, averaging just over two shots on target. The leader, Spanish star Alexia Putellas, is averaging a shade over three efforts on goal per 90. 

Putellas had two shots on goal from four attempts in the loss to Brazil, a tally made more remarkable by the fact she only played 13 minutes plus stoppage time. And her SOG/90 is more stunning when you consider Putellas only started three of the five matches for Spain. 

I’ll be surprised if Smith doesn’t match Putellas’ SOG mark against Brazil. Smith is taking plenty of shots so far, putting 11 of her 25 efforts on goal. But she’s only had multiple shots on target in two matches — both against Germany, with four on goal in each.

Thankfully for her, Brazil plays a very similar style to the Germans. They like to employ a high defensive press, and they can be exposed with diagonal passing. It’s what the Americans used to punish Germany’s back line repeatedly and what I expect them to do against pressure on Saturday.

The beauty of the USA attack is that no one player can be isolated or taken away. And unlike Spain, that attack comes right at them. As great as the Spanish players are, their best attacks tend to come from midfield.

Brazil hasn’t faced a front line like what they’ll encounter on Saturday, and they’re allowing far too many shots on goal as it is. If they play the style they have so far in this tournament, then +175 is an amazing price for Smith to put 2+ shots on goal. 

USA vs Brazil odds

• Spread: USA -1 (+250) | Brazil +1 (-125)
• Moneyline: USA -215 | Brazil +160 
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 (+136) | Under 2.5 (-186)

Spain vs Germany game info

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