France vs Spain Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men's Soccer

A European side will take Olympic gold in men’s soccer for the first time in 32 years on Friday when Spain takes on host nation France.

Spain reached the final via a 2-1 comeback victory over Morocco, and their Under-23 side looks to join their senior team in glory after they won Euro 2024 last month. But French legend Thierry Henry has his side thriving, and having the home fans behind them could be key to their first gold in 40 years.

Join me as I break down the gold medal match with my France vs. Spain predictions for Friday, August 9.

France vs. Spain prediction and best bet

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Match prediction
France 3-way moneyline (+150)

My analysis

Just as they did in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Spain look poised to dominate the landscape of soccer. Their win at Euro 2024 highlighted the adjustment from tiki-taka to a more attacking style, and they have talent at every position on the pitch.

Their U-23 side at the Olympics has furthered that feeling, as they’ve been a pleasant side to watch. They’ve scored multiple goals in four of their five matches, and have shown they can win in a variety of ways.

But that will be tested in the gold medal match. They’re facing a French side who, until Egypt’s opening goal in the semifinal, didn’t concede a single goal in the competition. Les Bleus have outscored their opponents 11-1 so far, and have both the second-best xG for and against at the Olympics.

France pushes bodies forward when they get the ball, setting up almost in a 2-5-3 when they get possession. This could be problematic for Spain, who have struggled at times defensively when put under heavy pressure. La Roja has conceded goals in four of their five matches despite not facing the most imposing sides, and Morocco was able to force them into multiple mistakes in the first half of their match.

Both teams have strong attacks, but only France has shown they have the ability to stifle teams defensively. They have posted much better metrics in defensive duels and shots blocked, and they’re not afraid to get physical and foul to disrupt attacks. 

Spain will have to push their fullbacks forward to generate their best attack, and that’ll open them up to the French counter-attack led by Michael Olise. This will be where Les Bleus find a goal or two, and put themselves atop the podium in their capital city. 

Olise won't let up

My best bet
Michael Olise to score or assist (+125)

My analysis

Olise has started four of France’s five matches at this tournament. He’s been involved in at least one goal in each of those starts, and I’m betting on him doing it once more on Friday.

With two goals and four assists, Olise has been at the heart of nearly everything France has done offensively. He’s contributed to six of the eight goals scored in those four outings, registering both a goal and assist against the United States and against Egypt.

Henry has done a masterful job of setting up his side, especially in attack. He puts pressure on the opponent’s back line with Mateta and Alexandre Lacazette, and uses them to create space for Olise to get on the ball, run at the back line, and create for his teammates as he drifts from his central starting spot to a wider area on the right.

The fact they partnered so well at Crystal Palace this season is evident in the chemistry between Olise and Mateta, and it’s a big reason for their success. Olise leads all players at the Olympics in assists and big chances created, and his high number of progressive carries into both the final third and the penalty area have allowed him to generate 17 chances for his team, most in the competition.

But Olise is doing more than just creating for his team. He ranks 13 among all players at the Olympics, regardless of minutes, with 3.3 shots per 90 minutes played. He’s also putting at least one shot on target per 90 minutes, and is a key reason Mateta is averaging more than two per game.

In front of his home fans and with a gold medal on the line, I expect Olise to again be France’s most important player on Friday. Getting plus-odds for him to be involved in a goal is far too good a value to pass up. 

France vs Spain odds

• Spread: France -1.5 (+425) | Spain +1.5 (-800)
• Moneyline: France -135 | Spain +105
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-170)

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