We have a jam-packed day of NHL action ahead of us, with 22 of the league’s 32 teams set to take the ice.
I see the most value in backing Lucas Raymond, Dougie Hamilton, and Matvei Michkov against three of the most vulnerable defensive sides in the league.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL player props for December 21.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 21
Lucas Raymond Over 0.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
Dougie Hamilton Over 2.5 shots on goal (-130 at FanDuel)
Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 12-21 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Lucas Raymond Over 0.5 assists
Lucas Raymond has taken his playmaking to another level for the Detroit Red Wings this season. He has 20 assists through 32 games, which is a 51-assist pace over a full schedule.
Raymond has piled up his assists in consistent fashion, recording at least one in half his games — including seven of the past 12 on the road.
He has a great matchup to build on his recent success against the Montreal Canadiens. They rank 31st in goals against per game (3.63) and have conceded 17 goals over their last four contests.
Montreal tends to use its top line against the opposing team’s, meaning we should see plenty of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky vs. Raymond’s unit. That is a good thing.
While this version of the top line is prolific offensively, it gives up a ton at the other end. Montreal’s current top line is giving up 3.54 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 play.
They put a lot of pressure on the goaltenders to get stops. That’s not something that can be relied upon with Cayden Primeau between the pipes.
He has allowed at least three goals in every single game and managed only a .836 save percentage.
Prop bet #2: Dougie Hamilton Over 2.5 shots on goal
Dougie Hamilton is one of the NHL’s most prolific shooters from the backend. Despite a dip in average ice time playing on a much deeper New Jersey Devils defense core, Hamilton has piled up the shots. He ranks fourth among all defensemen in attempts and has hit the target more times than all but Zach Werenski and Cale Makar.
Hamilton has done his best work in New Jersey, clearing 2.5 shots at a 56% clip while attempting 6.7 per game.
A date with the Pittsburgh Penguins should help bring out a ceiling performance in terms of volume. They rank fifth in 5v5 pace over the last 10 games, making this a nice pace-up spot for the Devils.
The Penguins also rank 26th in 5v5 shot suppression, and 28th while killing penalties, during that span. Hamilton generates a lot of volume at 5v5 and quarterbacks the league’s best power plays, so he will certainly be put in positions to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s inability to limit shots.
The Penguins have given up a lot of shots to defensemen as well, allowing more per game than all but the Sharks over the last 10.
Hamilton has recorded at least four shots in three straight home games vs. Pittsburgh. There’s plenty of reason to believe that trend will continue this time around.
Prop bet #3: Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 points
The Columbus Blue Jackets simply cannot keep the puck out of their net. They have allowed 3.58 goals per game this season, which is the third-highest mark in the NHL — and nothing in their process suggests things will get better anytime soon.
The Jackets rank 28th in shot suppression, 29th in shot share, and 32nd in expected goals allowed at 5v5 over the past 10 games. They also continue to struggle on the penalty kill, where they’ve conceded the fifth-most goals this season.
Matvei Michkov should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this matchup. He does not play on the matchup line, which means he should see plenty of Columbus’ Middle-6 units — both of which give up shots in bulk and allow more expected goals than they generate.
Michkov is also a staple on the top power play, leading the Philadelphia Flyers in power play points by a healthy margin as a rookie.
Michkov hasn’t found the scoresheet in four straight games, which is the longest drought of his young career. This is a great spot for that streak to end.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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