NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9: Toney Left With a Giant Responsibility

The NFL season is hitting the midway point in Week 9 and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

Week 9 is here and we’re hitting a pair of New York pass catchers, fading an injured running back on a high total, and betting on a receiver to bounce back after a dud. 

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 9.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Cooks Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Sanders Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Toney Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110) and Booker Over 19.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Mitchell Under 74.5 rushing yards (-115)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Cooks the Books

Tyrod Taylor is back under center for the Houston Texans, meaning the Davis Mills experiment is finally over. Taylor at QB is great news for wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who averaged 62.5 receiving yards in Mills’ six starts but went for 132 yards in the opener with Taylor and was on his way to another big game in Week 2 before Taylor departed.

In the six total quarters Cooks and Taylor were together this season, the wide receiver posted 182 receiving yards. Miami’s secondary is getting healthy again but Cooks is such a focal point of this offense and can line up in the slot as well, where Cole Beasley racked up 110 yards on 10 grabs last week vs. Miami.

Cooks’ receiving total opened at 68.5 but has fallen slightly to 65.5. This total is actually lower than Cooks’ last two weeks with Mills under center. If Cooks goes off, this number could jump back up to the low-70s. The Dolphins allow over 190 yards to opposing WRs, which is a bottom-five mark.

PICK: Brandin Cooks Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Emmanuel Labor

Buffalo’s Cole Beasley comes into Week 9 as highly questionable with a rib injury. Beasley posted a 100-yard game last week on 10 grabs and could see that production head Emmanuel Sanders’ way after the receiver laid a goose egg on the stat sheet vs. the Dolphins. 

Sanders is still averaging 59 yards per game after last week’s dud and should get the ball Sunday, as quarterbacks love to get players involved after a poor volume showing the week before. 

Also in Sanders’ favor is a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks last in defensive dropback success. The Jags give up nearly 200 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, and gave up 18 catches for 185 yards to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett last week, in a game that Seattle was leading 17-0 at halftime.

Sanders’ receiving yard total is a modest 53.5 yards and with Dawson Knox out and Beasley questionable, Buffalo’s receiver should see plenty of action Sunday. He was averaging 78 yards per game going into Week 8.

PICK: Emmanuel Sanders Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Book ‘em, Toney

Another week and another mess of injuries for the New York Giants’ skill positions. The only receiver, it seems, who is a full go is rookie Kadarius Toney who was removed from the injury report this week. Sterling Shepard (out), Kenny Golladay (questionable), and Saquon Barkley (out) are the wounded, which leaves Toney in a familiar situation as the healthiest pass catcher.

In two games without Shepard, Toney has averaged 11 targets and a 28 percent target share. He roasted the Cowboys for 10/189/0 in Week 5 and looks to be over his thumb injury.

Even if Golladay starts, he will likely be limited as he’s seen just 24 snaps since Week 5. Toney’s receiving yard total sits at 55.5 and is headed north while his reception total is at 4.5 and shaded heavily to the Over. We’re taking the yards on Sunday as getting a leading receiver at under 60 yards is a deal. 

Running back Davontae Booker has also been featured in the passing game of late and has 14 grabs for 124 yards over the last four games. We’re going to tack on his receiving total of 19.5 yards and hit the Over as well. 

PICK: Kadarius Toney Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365) and Davontae Booker Over 19.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

The Elijah Monologues

San Francisco's Elijah Mitchell has back-to-back 100-yard games and now gets to see one of the worst run defenses in the Arizona Cardinals. Also in favor of the 49ers is the health of Kyler Murray, who is questionable. If this Arizona offense struggles to move the ball, Kyle Shanahan’s offense could lean heavily on the run and wear down the Cards’ defense, much like the Packers did in Week 8.

It's not all roses for Mitchell, however, as he's dealing with a rib injury that limited him this week as he participated in a non-contact jersey at practice. Jeff Wilson could also be activated this weekend, as well, which would cut into Mitchell’s snaps if he were to suit up. 

With a rushing total on the high side at 73.5 yards (higher than Jonathan Taylor’s), there are too many red flags here for us to hit the Over. An in-game injury is not worth the risk on the Over, but well worth it for the Under. 

Arizona will want to tighten things up on defense after getting embarrassed by A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones last week, and Kliff Kinsbury will likely want to try and make Jimmy Garoppolo beat him through the air. 

Injuries and a high total have us hitting the Under on Mitchell’s rushing total despite the great matchup. 

PICK: Elijah Mitchell Under 74.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Kelce diet

Travis Kelce is coming off a game he’d rather forget Monday night versus the Giants: He caught 4 of 7 passes for 27 yards and had a costly fumble. The only way for Patrick Mahomes to get his tight end back into the comfort zone is with a steady diet of short passes and offensive involvement this Sunday versus the Packers.

Kelce was averaging 11 targets per game between Week 5 and 7 and was hauling in seven grabs for 70+ yards per match over that stretch. Heading into that MNF tilt, Kelce’s receiving total was 77.5 yards and 6.5 receptions. Although his reception total is still 6.5 this week, his receiving yard total has fallen a few points and can be had as low as 73.5.

Kelce is a yards-after-catch monster and even if Mahomes gets him going in the short passing game, Kelce can turn short grabs into big yards. Green Bay is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of covering tight ends and Zach Ertz caught all four of his targets for 42 yards in Week 8 as the third (or fourth) passing option for the Cards.

Kansas City needs to get things going like the ‘ol days and getting Kelce involved is key to that success. 

PICK: Travis Kelce Over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Chasing yards

The Cincinnati Bengals will be looking for a bounceback game Sunday after dropping Week 8 to the Jets as double-digit favorites. Rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is coming off his lowest yardage total of the season, with just 32 yards on three grabs. The former LSU standout was heavily targeted by Joe Burrow — nine targets — but failed to do much with the usage.

This week, the Bengals will take on the Browns, who give up 170-plus receiving yards to opposing wideouts, which is in the bottom half of the league. The Browns have a Top-10 defense in rush and pass success rate so there is no easy way to beat this unit. However, last week did show us that if teams want to stop Joe Mixon and the run, they can. If Kevin Stefanski follows the Jets (and not the Ravens) for a game plan Sunday, Burrow could be in pass-mode again.

Heading into Week 8, Chase was averaging 133.5 receiving yards per game over a four-game stretch and topped 75 in each game. This week, his receiving yards total sits at 73.5 yards, which is one yard shorter than last week but pretty much on par for the last month. 

There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense but Chase has seen at least nine targets in four of his last five games, is the team’s most-targeted receiver, and his 20.7 yards per reception ranks tops in the league. Give us the Over in this divisional battle.

PICK: Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at William Hill)

This is going to Hurts

One might think that the Chiefs have the worst rushing defense, but it’s actually the Chargers that own the league’s worst defensive success rate against the run and give up the most rushing yards (132) to opposing running backs per game in the league. The Chargers are also one the NFL’s worst tackling teams at 7.86 missed tackles per game.

This weekend, they face an Eagles team that is averaging 157 rushing yards per game over its last three contests — second-most in football — and rushed for 236 yards last week against the Lions.

The Eagles’ backfield is a tough one to navigate, as three RBs had at least 12 carries last week, so we’re going to avoid that mess and take advantage of QB Jalen Hurts’ legs.

The former Alabama signal-caller has at least seven rush attempts in each game this season, is averaging 10 rushes a game over his last three, and has topped 50 yards in back-to-back games. His rushing total sits at 49.5 yards which is his highest total of the year but with Philly rotating fresh backs, this poor-tackling Chargers’ defense could get worn down — and Hurts is one option away from a big gain.  

The Chargers allow the eighth-most QB rushing yards per game and outside of Lamar Jackson, have seen a steady diet of pocket passers this season.

PICK: Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Any Dillon Sunday

The Packers’ rushing game last week was a sight to see: Running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 151 yards against the soft Arizona Cardinals run defense. However, it was the latter that impressed the most with his ability to, how do we say, run over the opposition. Dillon finished every run falling forward and left a wake of flattened tacklers.

Dillon would finish that game with more carries than Jones and led the team with 78 rushing yards on 16 totes. Now the offense will be led by Jordan Love, who has never made an NFL start, and we’re getting a rushing total of 35.5 yards. Is this a mistake?

Not only is Dillon getting more action, he comes into Week 9 with extra rest, is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and he also gets to see the league’s second-worst rush defense in the Chiefs on Sunday. This is a plus-plus matchup for the bruising back and two-unit Over 35.5 for us. 

Kansas City will likely stack the box with Love under center, but Dillon has proved he can get tough yards. Let’s just hope he holds onto the ball and doesn’t get sent to timeout. 

PICK: A.J. Dillon Over 35.5 rushing yards (-118 at BetMGM)

Season to date: 53-59 -6.30 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 9 prop betting card

• Brandin Cooks Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Emmanuel Sanders Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Kadarius Toney Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365) and Davontae Booker Over 19.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
• Elijah Mitchell Under 74.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
• Travis Kelce Over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
• Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at WillHill)
• Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
• A.J. Dillon Over 35.5 rushing yards (-118 at BetMGM)

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